Minewater heat in Heerlen / Gruvvattenvärme i Heerlen

The journey home from Halifax became dramatic when the airport found itself under the outer edge of a hurricane. There were many aircraft that could not land but those that were there could leave. A shaky start ended with a smooth flight over the Atlantic.

Unfortunately, I must decline many invitations to speak, but it was difficult to say no to an invitation to speak at the opening of the world’s first minewater heat project. After a little sleep I began a new journey down to Aachen/Heerlen in Germany/Holland.

Heerlen is a town in Holland’s little appendix between Belgium and Germany. Until 1970 it was a significant mining town where they extracted coal. When they found the enormous gas field in Groningen coal was phased out and the mining tunnels were filled with water. It was realised that the water in the mining tunnels up to 700 metres below ground was being heated geothermally and that one could use the water for heating the city. It was Elianne Demollin-Schneider that thought of this.

There are now 7 former mining towns that are participating in ”The Minewater Project” and on 1 October the first plant will be opened. Details of the project can be found at http://www.minewaterproject.info/

My presentation has the title, ”Europe faces the Challenges ahead” and I have written an introductory abstract. How will Europe get sufficient oil and gas in future?
If you do not want to read the abstract then stop reading here.

(Swedish below the abstract)

Abstract

“Europe faces the challenges ahead” –
Why European cities, regions and nations urgently need to convert to local sources of sustainable energy.

Kjell Aleklett, Professor of Physics
Uppsala University
Global Energy Systems
Box 535, SE-75121 Uppsala, Sweden
E-mail: kjell.aleklett@fysast.uu.se
Blog: aleklettwordpress.com

The world can be divided into four centres of power; The USA, China, Russia and the EU. Despite economic problems in the USA it is apparent from all statistics that greatest economic power is held by the USA. If we study in detail the underlying factors that contribute to a nation’s economic, political and military strength then we find that the decisive factor is energy. Under the current economic system, where more than 80% of global energy production comes from fossil fuels, access to fossil energy is decisive for a region’s economic strength.

In terms of the total access to fossil fuel reserves in the four power centres there are stark differences between the USA, China, Russia and the EU. Because of its large reserves of coal the USA tops the list followed by Russia, China and the EU. When we consider only oil then Russia leads while the USA, EU and China are forced to import large volumes. This means that three of the four superpowers have a future that is very vulnerable. We in the EU have a large “energy debt” and those that are in debt are not free.

In terms of production of oil and natural gas only Russia is self-sufficient and will continue so as far into the future as we can plan. Chinese production is levelling off and that means that all future increases in consumption must be imported. Discovered volumes of natural gas in China are quite small but production is still increasing. Oil production in the USA is falling and is expected to continue to do so.

Production in Europe’s two largest oil producing nations, Norway and the UK, is sinking like a stone. Total gas production is also declining. Every year the EU becomes more and more dependent on energy imports and our freedom declines. It is this energy trend that is the EU’s greatest challenge and every nation, every city, every village and every person in the EU must understand how serious our situation is and that we must act on this immediately.

When we plan the future we must study how energy is used in our communities and how we, ourselves, use energy in our everyday lives. Since ancient times we make approximately four long journeys per day. As an example we might move to and from our workplace and to and from the shops. Today these movements are much longer than they were 100 years ago and they are performed mainly with the assistance of fossil fuels. We must break this trend.

Our houses are larger than they were 100 years ago and they are now both warmer and cooler than the temperature of the surrounding environment. Here there is great potential for energy savings.

Finally we must examine our food. Rich and poor alike both need to consume approximately the same amount of energy in food. The energy that exists in food is markedly less than the energy that exists in the oil that is needed to produce the food. “We eat oil!” At the Liverpool Management School they have studied the contribution of oil to the cost of production of milk and have concluded that 70% of the cost can be related to the price of oil.

Our calculations show that global oil energy production is about to reach a maximum, Peak Oil. Today we produce around 85 million barrels of oil per day and, in the best case (if high production is good) we can reach 93 million barrels per day around year 2015. In the worst case we are at maximal production just now, i.e. we will be on a production plateau for some years.

Every additional device for production of renewable energy is a step in the right direction. The future needs many steps but today we are gladdened by the steps that are done here at this moment.

(Swedish)
Hemfärden från Halifax blev dramatisk då flygplatsen hamnade i utkanten av en orkan. Det var flera plan som inte kunde landa med de som var på plats kunde starta. En skakig början avslutades med en lugn färd över Atlanten.

Tyvärr måste jag säga nej till många inbjudningar att tala, men till inbjudan att tala då man skall inviga världens första gruvvattenprojekt var det svårt att såga nej till. Efter lite sömn blev det en ny resa ner till Aachen/Heerlen i Tyskland/Holland.

Heerlen, en stad i Hollands lilla blindtarm mellan Belgien och Tyskland, var fram till 1970 en betydelsefull gruvstad där man bröt kol. Då man hittade det enorma gasfältet i Groningen fasades kolet ut och gruvgångarna fylldes med vatten. Iden kläcktes att vattnet i gruvgångarna upp till 700 meter under marken värmdes upp geotermiskt och att man skulle kunna använda vattnet för uppvärmning av staden. Det var Elianne Demollin-Schneider som knäckte den iden.

Nu finns det 7 gamla gruvstäder som är med i ”The Minewater Project” och den 1 oktober invigs den första anläggningen. Detaljer om projekten finns på hemsidan; http://www.minewaterproject.info/

Mitt föredrag har titeln ”Europe faces the Challenges ahead” och jag har skrivit ett inledande abstrakt. Hur skall Europa i framtiden få tillräckligt med Olja och Gas?

Om du vill läsa abstraktet på engelska så finns det längre upp.

Peak Oil Sacramento and Halifax

The peak oil conference in Sacramento was very intensive and you can find a detailed programme at ASPO-USA’s homepage.. I am currently writing a detailed summary that will be placed on ASPO’s homepage. All the presentations will also soon be available on ASPO-USA’s homepage. The most interesting contributions were those that discussed the various consequences when Peak Oil occurs and those that showed that it is not just oil production that will peak but also production of many rare minerals. I hope that the summary will be finalised during this weekend.

It took an entire day to fly from San Francisco to Halifax in Canada via Chicago. At Dalhousie University in Halifax they are doing very interesting research on oil and natural gas. Today I met some of the professors there and gave a presentation on Peak Oil and future import and export limitations. The lecture theatre was so full that some people had to sit wherever they could find a space. As usual it was very interesting to lecture for young students. Their future is “Past Peak Oil” and it is important to deliver this message in a way that can give them inspiration for the future. Tomorrow I will receive a run-through of the research here and I hope that we can find suitable ways to collaborate.

(English will come)

Peak Oil konferensen i Sacramento var mycket intensiv och det detaljerade programmet kan ni hitta på ASPO-USA:s hemsida. Jag skriver just nu på en detaljerad sammanfattning som kommer att finnas på ASPO:s hemsida. Inom en snar framtid kommer också alla presentationer att finnas tillgängliga på hemsidan för ASPO-USA. De intressantaste bidragen var de som diskuterade olika konsekvenser då Peak Oil blir verklighet, men också de bidrag som visade att det inte bara är olja som kommer att nå en peak utan också många sällsynta mineraler. Jag hoppas att sammanfattningen skall bli klar under helgen.

Det tog en hel dag att via Chicago flyga från San Francisco till Halifax i Kanada. Vid Dalhousie University har man mycket intressant olje- och naturgas forskning. Har idag träffat några av professorerna och hållit ett föredrag om Peak Oil och framtida import och export begränsningar. Föreläsningssalen var så full så att några fick sitta var helst som det fanns plats. Som vanligt är det mycket intressant att föreläsa för unga studenter. “Past Peak Oil” är deras framtid och det gäller att leverera budskapet så att det kan ge dem inspiration för framtiden. I morgon blir det genomgång av forskningen här och jag hoppas att vi kan hitta lämpliga samarbetsformer.

Production of oil and gas in the USA / Produktion av olja och gas I USA

Hurricane Ike has passed Texas and it is time to check the bill. The Minerals Management Service, MMS, reports that 49 of 3800 production platforms have been destroyed and they do not know if they will be repaired. This means that 1.3% of the platforms in the Gulf of Mexico have disappeared.

In terms of the rest of remainder of the production 89% of oil production and 75% of natural gas production is shut in. This means that over one million barrels of oil per day is missing from American production. However, more serious is that 9 refineries with a total capacity of 2.3 million barrels of oil per day are not in production. Stocks of gasoline in the USA are now at record lows. The high gasoline prices mean that, in general, people only purchase what they need for the next few days. It is estimated that the volume of gasoline that now exists stored in American cars has never been lower. If everyone began to fill up their cars then the gasoline would quickly run out.

This worrying situation has forced the price of oil back over $100 per barrel and yesterday the price closed at $109 per barrel. During September they begin to plan production of heating oil for the winter and approximately 80% of all the houses in northeast USA still have oil-fuelled heating. The closed refineries mean that they are now beginning to worry what will happen if it is a hard winter.

I have mentioned earlier that the price of oil in a normal annual cycle usually goes down during summer to then begin to rise in September. It remains to be seen if this year’s trend is the same.

(Swedish)

Orkanen Ike har passerat Texas och det är dags att studera notan. Minerals Management Service, MMS, rapporterar att 49 produktionsplattformar utav 3800 har förstörts och man vet inte om man kommer att reparera plattformarna. Det medför att 1.3 procent av plattformarna i Mexikanska golfen har försvunnit.

Vad det gäller den övriga produktionen så står 89% av oljeproduktionen och 75% av naturgasproduktionen stilla. Det betyder att över en miljon fat olja om dagen saknas i den amerikanska produktionen, men allvarligare är att 9 raffinaderier, som har en kapacitet på 2.3 miljoner fat olja om dagen, står stilla. Lagren av bensin i USA är nu rekordlåga. De höga bensinpriserna har medfört att folk i allmänhet tankar vad man behöver de närmaste dagarna och man beräknar att den volym bensin som nu finns lagrad i de amerikanska bilarna aldrig varit lägre. Om alla skulle börja fylla upp sina bilas skulle bensinen snart ta slut.

Denna oro gör att priset på olja nu pressas upp över 100$ per fat och i går slutade priset på 109$ per fat. Under september börjar man också planera produktion av vinterns eldningsolja och ca 80% av alla hus i nordöstra USA har fortfarande oljeeldning. De stängda raffinaderierna medför att man nu börjar oroa sig för vad som kommer att hända om det blir en sträng vinter.

Jag har tidigare nämnt att priset på olja i en normal cykel brukar gå ner under sommaren för att sedan börja stiga i september. Det återstår att se om årets trend blir den samma.

Berkeley and San Fransisco

ASPO-USA is a very active national ASPO association. From 21-23 September they are holding their fourth national conference in Sacramento. Around 500 people will gather together. When the conference is opened I, as the chairman of ASPO-International, will describe our international work and the global problems we have before us.

Yesterday evening I landed in San Francisco but my suitcase arrived on the following plane. A search for a suitable hotel on the internet a week earlier had found Hotel Whitcomb on Market Street in San Francisco that, for some reason, was offering a 40% discount. I first came to San Francisco during August 30 years ago. I had just been awarded my Ph.D. and had received an invitation to work as a post doc in the group of the Nobel prize-winner Glenn T. Seaborg at the University of California, Berkeley. To get to work with a Nobel prize-winner was a fantastic experience and, furthermore, to be able to come to Berkeley and San Francisco felt completely unreal. My first visit was during 1978-9 and I then returned in 1983 as a fellow with the Swedish-America Foundation.

I worked together with Seaborg for 20 years. The fact that element 106, Seaborgium, was named after Seaborg is evidence that he was one of the world’s leading researchers during his lifetime.

10 years ago I was also in San Francisco and Berkeley and I then met Professor Seaborg for the last time. A month later I received the news of his tragic death. To work together with Seaborg has been decisive for my research and I am convinced that he would have shown great enthusiasm to participate in research on Peak Oil.

Seaborg always asserted that we as researchers must become engaged in our communities outside of our specialist research areas and he was, during his lifetime, advisor to 10 American presidents. One of his tasks was to lead an investigation of the American school system and I believe that the subsequent report was titled, “A Nation at Risk”.

When, late in the day, I arrived at the hotel on Market Street I had a quick shower and then travelled down to Fisherman’s Wharf. To buy crab in one of the stands and wash it down with San Francisco Anchor Steam Beer was very nostalgic. The evening was made complete with an Irish coffee at Buena Vista and a trip by Cable Car back to Market Street.

Kjell Aleklett and Glenn T. Seaborg

(Swedish)

ASPO-USA är en mycket aktiv nationell ASPO-förening. Den 21-23 september ordnar man sin fjärde nationella konferens i Sacramento. Runt 500 personer kommer att samlas och då konferensen öppnas skall jag som ordförande för ASPO-International berätta om det internationella arbetet och vilka globala problem som vi har framför oss.

I går kväll landade jag i San Fransisco, men min väska kom först med nästa plan. En sökning på nätet en vecka tidigare efter ett lämpligt hotell blev en träff på Hotel Whitcomb på Market Street i San Fransisco, som av någon anledning hade 40 % rabatt. I augusti för 30 år sedan kom jag första gången till San Fransisco. Jag hade just avlagt min doktorsexamen och fått ett erbjudande att arbeta som forskarassisten i Nobelpristagare Glenn T. Seaborgs grupp vid University of California, Berkeley. Att få arbeta med en Nobelpristagare kändes fantastiskt och att dessutom få komma till Berkeley och San Fransisco kändes helt overkligt. Min första vistelse var under 1978-79 och sedan kom jag tillbaka 1983 som stipendiat hos Sverige-Amerikastiftelsen. Under 20 år arbetade jag tillsammans med Seaborg. Det faktum att grundämne 106 fått namnet Seaborgium efter Seaborg bevisar att han under sin livstid var en av världens ledande forskare.

För 10 år sedan var jag också i San Fransisco och Berkeley och träffade då Professor Seaborg för sista gången. En månad senare fick jag besked om hans tragiska död. Att få arbete tillsammans med Seaborg har varit avgörande för min forskning och jag är övertygad om att han med stor entusiasm skulle varit med och forskat om Peak Oil.

Seaborg hävdade alltid att vi som forskare måste engagera oss för samhället utanför vårt specifika forskningsområde och han var under sin levnad rådgivare till 10 amerikanska presidenter. En av hans sita uppgifter var att leda en utredning om det amerikanska skolsystemet och jag tror att rapporten fick namnet ”A Nation at Risk”.

Då jag sent om sidor kom fram till hotellet på Market Street blev det att snabbt duscha och åka ner till Fishermans Wharf. Att köpa krabba i något av stånden och skölja ner den med Anchor Steam Beer blev nostalgi i kvadrat. Kvällen blev fulländad genom en Irish coffee på Buena Vista och en åktur med Cable Car tillbaka till Market Street.

Aviation Fuels and Peak Oil / Flygbränsle och Peak Oil

It is obvious that the aviation industry has problems. At the moment it is Alitalia’s future that is discussed in the news. Can the company’s passengers count on a return trip when they travel out to the wider world on an Alitalia ticket?

Last autumn when the oil price began to rise we thought that it would be interesting to study how Peak Oil would affect the future production of aviation fuel. A diploma project was outlined and, at the beginning of the year we welcomed Emma to our group. Yesterday afternoon my computer peeped when the report, “Aviation Fuels and Peak Oil” landed in my inbox. Now the report will be assessed by a number of people and, when it is defended in a few week’s time, I will return to its conclusions.

One hour earlier my computer had also peeped when another email arrived. It was an invitation from IATA, the International Air Transport Association, that wondered if we were interested in discussing “Peak Oil and Aviation Fuels” at a large international conference in Shanghai in mid-November. Of course we are interested and it feels great that our research is so appropriate for these times.

(Swedish)

Det är uppenbart att flygindustrin har problem. Just nu är det Alitalias framtid som diskuteras i nyheterna. Kan bolagets passagerare räkna med en hemresa då man åker ut i vida världen med en Alitalia biljett?

Förra hösten då oljepriset började stiga tyckte vi att det skulle vara intressant att studera hur Peak Oil skulle påverka framtida produktion av flygbränsle. Ett examensarbete definierades och i början av året hälsade vi Emma välkommen till gruppen. I går eftermiddag plingade det till i datorn då rapporten ”Aviation Fuels and Peak Oil” ramlade ner i brevlådan. Nu skall arbetet granskas av ett antal personer och då det försvaras om några veckor skall jag återkomma till slutsatserna.

En timme tidigare hade det också plingat till då ett annat e-brev ramlade ner. Det var en inbjudan från IATA, International Air Transport Association, som undrade om vi var intresserade att diskutera ”Peak Oil and Aviation Fuels” på en stor internationell konferens i Shanghai i mitten av november. Självfallet är vi intresserade och det känns fantastiskt att vår forskning ligger så rätt i tiden.

Architecture and Peak Oil / Arkitektur och Peak Oil

At the “The Royal University College of Fine Arts” in Stockholm there is a Masters course of one year’s duration with the theme ”Resources”. For the academic year 2007-8 the theme for the course was Beyond Oil: Shanghai and in this year’s course, Resources 08, they are plunging deep into California. The theme is Beyond Desire: Los Angeles. How will the city change to meet tomorrow’s challenges?

This year, as previously, one of the lectures in the course is my presentation ”Beyond Peak Oil”. The importance of oil in our society and the fact that production will decline in the future was something completely new and unnerving for many of the students. At the same time, we asserted that this change will inspire new architecture. We told the students on the course that they will experience peak oil. Even more certain are that those environments and buildings that are currently being constructed will exist during the phasing out of oil.

What will happen in tomorrow’s Los Angeles? How will we live, how will we travel and how will we shape public space for the time after oil? The project will be completed by May and I am already waiting with excitement for the result.

(Swedish)
Vid Kungliga Konsthögskolan i Stockholm har man en master kurs med tema Resurser som pågår under ett läsår. Läsåret 07-08 var temat för kursen Beyond Oil: Shanghai och i årets kurs, Resources.08, gör man en djupdykning i Kalifornien. Temat är Beyond Desire: Los Angeles. Hur skall staden förändras för att möta morgondagens utmaningar?

Även i år är en av föreläsningarna i kursen min föreläsning ”Beyond Peak Oil”. För många var oljans betydelse i samhället och det faktum att produktionen kommer att minska i framtiden något helt nytt och skrämmande. Samtidigt konstaterade vi att denna förändring inspirerar till ny arkitektur. Vi konstaterade att studenterna på kursen kommer att uppleva Peak Oil. Ännu säkrare är det att de miljöer och byggnader som man nu skapar kommer att finnas kvar under oljans utfasningen.

Vad är det som gäller för morgondagen Los Angeles? Hur bor vi, hur reser vi och hur skapar vi offentliga rum för tiden efter oljan? I maj skall projektet vara färdigt och jag väntar redan med spänning på resultatet.

Uppsala Research Makes a Breakthrough in China / “Uppsalaforskning får genomslag i Kina”

”Uppsala research makes a breakthrough in China”, says the headline of the article in the “Uppsala New Magazine” [Uppsala’s local newspaper] that describes our activities in China. (The internet version has identical text with the headline “His Mission is to Estimate Natural Gas Production”).

If one opens the internet version of the article one can also listen to a computer-generated voice reading it. I understand that it is difficult for the computer to pronounce my name correctly, but the second last time it actually succeeds. Despite many pronunciation mistakes I am impressed by the technology. The next step is a verbal translation to different languages.

It is always interesting to read a journalist’s report of an interview. Despite that one tries to be as clear as possible there is often some little mistake. In today’s article it says that I was in China to sign an agreement with the Chinese University of Petroleum. That agreement was signed in November of last year and ratified by the two Universities’ rectors in January. Now we were in China to begin the research that we had agreed on. An important part is to estimate Chinas future natural gas production, i.e. as stated by the internet version’s headline.

___________________________________________________________

”Uppsala research makes a breakthrough in China”

(Translation of the article)

Professor Kjell Aleklett, (known for his research on the world’s declining oil resources) and his researchers at Uppsala University have been given a challenging task – they will estimate China’s future need for oil and gas.

“What our own future will be here in the West depends very much on what happens in China”, says Kjell Aleklett.

“Today China uses much less energy per capita than Europe and the rest of the Western world does. But if many of those Chinese that currently live in rural areas (which is the great majority) move to the cities then China’s energy needs will greatly increase.

Already China imports half of the oil it uses and those imports will need to increase if energy consumption rises since China already extracts as much oil as it can from its own reserves. But more oil barrels to China means fewer to the rest of the world”, states Kjell Aleklett.

Aleklett and his research group promote the idea of “Peak Oil” i.e. that the extraction of oil worldwide will reach a maximum in the year 2010 and can then only decline since the existing oil reserves are waning and too few new fields are being opened up relative to the growing demand. His research on calculation models for energy needs and availability has been given great attention around the world and now China has responded to his warning words on future access to oil. China’s Sinopec, the world’s third largest refinery company, recently summoned the Uppsala professor for a conversation.

“”If your calculations are correct then we are making mistaken investments costing billions of dollars” said one of the company’s leaders to me during our meeting. Now they want to support our research with one of their Ph.D. students here in Uppsala”, said Kjell Aleklett, who was actually in China to sign an agreement with the Chinese University of Petroleum when Sinopec called. (See comment in blog)

“It is a clear signal that industry is taking our research results seriously”, says Kjell Akeklett, who earlier started a collaboration with Volvo and Technova, a company in the Toyota famaly.
Together with the Chinese university, Kjell Aleklett’s group will map out China’s future requirements for oil and gas.

“They have started research that resembles ours and through collaboration we will get access to data on China that we never would have otherwise, says Kjell Aleklett.

NIKLAS SKERI
(Translation by ML)

(Swedish)

”Uppsalaforskning får genomslag i Kina”, så lyder rubriken på den artikel som i dagens Uppsala Nya Tidning beskriver vår verksamhet i Kina. Nätupplagan av artikeln har identiskt innehåll, men rubriken ”Naturgasproduktion hans räkneuppgift”.

Om man öppnar nätupplagan av artikeln kan man också lyssna till en datagenererad uppläsning. Jag förstår att det är svårt för datorn att uttala mitt namn korrekt, men näst sista gången lyckas den faktiskt med det. Trots några uttalsfel är jag imponerad av tekniken. Nästa steg är en verbal översättning till olika språk.

Det är alltid intressant att läsa journalistens reportage av en intervju och fastän man försöker vara så tydlig som det går finns det ofta något litet fel. I dagens artikel står det att jag var i Kina för att underteckna ett avtal med China University of Petroleum. Det avtalet undertecknades i november förra året och fastställdes av respektive universitets rektorer i januari. Nu var vi i Kina för att påbörja den forskning som vi enats om. En viktig del är att beräkna Kinas framtida naturgasproduktion, det vill säga nätupplagans rubrik.

30,000 visitors / 30.000 besökare

My blog is now four months old and the visitor total has just passed 30,000, i.e. over 7000 per month. It feels stimulating and inspiring and I will do my best to ensure that you who read my blog will continue to find something of value in it. One reason for the success is that Michael Lardelli translates my thoughts to English. Thanks Michael!

(Swedeish)

Min blogg är nu fyra månader gammal och antalet besökare har just passerat 30.000, dvs över 7000 per månad. Det känns stimulerande och inspirerande och jag skall göra mitt bästa för att ni som läser min blogg även i fortsättningen skall hitta något av värde. En anledning till framgången är att Michael Lardelli översätter mina funderinga till engelska. Tack Michael!

Peak Oil and Peak Oil Price

The price of crude oil now lies just above $100 per barrel – we have had a drop of $40 per barrel since the price-top in June. Some take the decline in the price as a sign that Peak Oil is not imminent.

If we study the actual level of oil production then we don’t see the same fluctuation. Instead, it is rather constant. The International Energy Agency, IEA, has even reduced its production prognoses for this year and next year to 86.8 and 87.6 million barrels per day respectively and we are approaching the maximum value that ASPO gave in a press release in 2002.

Let us state that ”Peak Oil” and ”Peak Oil Price” are not the same. When it comes to questions on the price of oil I have consistently answered that the price will be what we are willing to pay. We were not willing to pay $147 per barrel. We changed our consumption habits and demand declined. In the USA we see that consumption has now fallen markedly.

What we are now seeing is very positive for the future. There are far too many who believe that Peak Oil will bring economic catastrophe, something that I have consistently refused to accept. I believe that there are great possibilities for us to adapt to a new reality.

We frequently see that oil production in one or other nation sooner or later reaches a peak and then declines. We also see that oil exporters become oil importers and this also happens to members of OPEC, the organisation of oil exporting nations. At OPEC’s meeting in Vienna very recently, Indonesia decided to leave the OPEC club when they passed that magical threshold.

For nations outside of OPEC we can now note that the production increase of recent years in Russia is now levelling off and they will, presumably find themselves on a production plateau. It remains to be seen how long the production plateau continues.

(Swedish)

Priset på råolja ligger nu straks över 100 dollar per fat, vi har en nedgång med 40 dollar per fat sedan toppnoteringen i juni. Några tar nergången i priset som ett tecken på att vi inte har Peak Oil i en nära framtid.

Om vi studerar själva produktionen så har vi inte samma fluktuation utan den ligger ganska konstant. International Energy Agency, IEA, har till och med nedvärderat årets produktion och nästa års produktion till 86,8 respektive 87.6 miljoner fat om dagen och vi närmar oss den toppnotering som ASPO presenterade i ett pressmeddelande 2002.

Låt oss konstatera att ”Peak Oil” och ”Peak Oil Price” inte är det samma. Vad det gäller frågor om priset på olja har jag konsekvent svarat att priset blir vad vi är villiga att betala. Vi var inte villiga att betala 147 dollar per fat. Vi ändrade våra konsumtionsvanor och efterfrågan minskade. I USA ser vi nu att konsumtionen sjunker kraftigt.

Det vi nu ser är mycket positivt för framtiden. Det finns allt för många som tror att Peak Oil skall medföra ekonomisk katastrof, något som jag konsekvent vägrat att acceptera. Jag tror att vi har större möjligheter att anpassa oss till en ny verklighet.

Att oljeproduktionen i ett land förr eller senare når en topp och sedan minska ser vi hela tiden. Vi ser också att exportländer blir importländer och att detta också drabbar medlemmarna i OPEC, de oljeexporterande ländernas organisation. Vid OPEC:s möte i Wien helt nyligen beslutade Indonesien att lämna klubben då de passerat den magiska gränsen.

Vad det gäller länder utanför OPEC kan vi nu notera att de senaste årens produktionsökning i Ryssland nu planar ut och man hamnar förmodligen på en platåproduktion. Det återstår att se hur lång platåproduktionen blir.

New drilling boom in the USA / Ny borrboom i USA

In the USA in the 1980s they drilled for oil and gas more intensively than they had ever done before. The high price of oil was the driving force behind the drilling. Now the current high oil price has, once again, made more and more people interested in new drilling projects and the number of these in the USA is approaching the number during the 1980s. What result can we expect from this?
We now have access to the statistics from the 1980s and we see that the production of oil increased marginally during a few years but then resumed its decline. In terms of oil in new oil fields one sees no effect of the new drilling boom. The interpretation is that more production wells give more oil from existing oil fields while discoveries of new oil fields continue to decline.
In terms of natural gas the result was markedly better and production increased. The upward trend in prices lost stream and, during the first half of the 1990s, the price of natural gas in the USA was clearly lower than in the EU.
The new drilling boom has resulted in increased natural gas production and we will see what happens to the price. In terms of oil it remains to be seen how the situation develops but my guess is that we will see a development similar to that in the 1980s.

(Swedish)

Under 1980-talet borrade man i USA efter olja och gas mer intensivt än vad man gjort någon gång tidigare. Det höga priset på olja var drivkraften bakom borrningarna. Nu har det höga oljepriset på nytt fått fler och fler personer intresserade av nya borrningar och man är på väg upp mot samma antal borriggar som under 1980-talet. Vad kan vi förvänta oss för resultat?

Vi har nu tillgång till statistiken från 1980-talet och vi ser att produktionen av olja ökar marginellt under några år för att sedan på nytt minska. Vad det galler olja i nya oljefält ser man ingen påverkan av den nya borrboomen. Tolkningen blir att fler produktionsbrunnar gav mer olja från existerande oljefält medan upptäckten av nya oljefält fortsatte att minska.

Vad det gäller naturgas blev resultatet betydligt bättre och produktionen ökade. Det uppåtgående pristrenden avtog och under första hälften av 1990-talet var naturgaspriset i USA klart lägre än vad det var i EU.

Den nya borrboomen har resulterat i ökad naturgasproduktion och vi får se vad som händer med priset. Vad det gäller olja så återstår det att se hur utvecklingen blir, men min gissning är att vi kommer att få en utveckling liknande den på 1980-talet.