When I organised the world’s first Peak Oil conference here in Uppsala in 2002 Matt Simmons was one of the invited speakers. Since then we meet one or more times a year. Recently, he was interviewed by Steve Paikin in The Agenda, TVO in Toronto, Canada. The interview has just been made available on YouTube. He discusses the future price of oil, the fact that we pay more for water than for oil (on my blog I have discussed the “Coca-Cola Index” which is the same thing) Peak Oil and how we must change our behaviour. Have a listen. I am happy to discuss it.
(Watch the video here: Youtube)
(Swedish)
Då jag organiserade världens första Peak Oil konferens här i Uppsala 2002 var Matt Simmons en av de inbjudna talarna. Sedan dess träffas vi någon eller några gånger om året. Nyligen intervjuades han av TVO i Toronto, Kanada, och den intervjun har just blivit tillgänglig på TouTube. Han diskuterar framtidens oljepris, faktum att vi betalar mer för vatten än för olja (här på min blogg har jag diskuterat Coca-Cola index som är samma sak), Peak Oil och hur vi måste förändra vårt beteende. Lyssna och jag är öppen för en diskussion.
March 27, 2009 at 4:50 pm |
Rather than give up travel as Matt suggest I prefer the US build a photovoltaic generation and hydrogen storage facility in the US Southwest large enough to supply 100% of all US energy needs. This will also require a national distribution system for electric and hydrogen. I estimate the two projects will cost 8 trillion dollars each for a total of 16 trillion dollars. The time scale I would prefer is 3-6 years. This ought to be a big enough stimulus for the world economy. The US will then have technology to export to the whole world.
March 28, 2009 at 3:40 pm |
Matt Simmons, founder of Houston-based investment bank Simmons & Co, argues the underlying rate of decline of the world’s aging oilfields is as much as 20 percent a year and only high levels of investment can reduce that to single digits.
With credit tight and oil prices almost $100 a barrel below their highs last year, oil companies are unable to sustain previous levels of spending and the result is falling production, he said in an interview on Thursday.
“We are three, six, maybe nine months away from a price shock. We are not talking about three to five years away — it will be much sooner,” Simmons told Reuters in London.
Det Ed Pell skriver kommer ju från en person utan förankring i verkligheten. De summor han beräknar är ju enorma belopp. Handlar om mer än staten USA BNP.
Man kan inte enkelt beräkna något sådant utan att lida av hybris.
March 28, 2009 at 11:02 pm |
Björn Forsberg som är forkare i miljö och tillväxtfrågor vid Umeå universitet, har skrivit en bok som heter “Tillväxtens sista dagar” den beskriver det totalt orimliga med dagens samhälle, med eller utan olja. Jag kan varmt rekommendera den.
March 29, 2009 at 6:13 pm |
Lotus Jansson writes “The Ed Pell writes come from a person without roots in reality. The amount he calculates is huge amount. Is about more than state the U.S. GDP.
We can not calculate such a thing without having to suffer from hubris.”
What price do you think is correct for a new energy system? If we use a five year base that would be 23% of the US GDP for five years. What % of GDP would you think worth spending to have energy self sufficiency? It is not hubris it is rational planning.
March 29, 2009 at 6:16 pm |
I do like Google translation it does a fairly good job of Swedish to English. Jag gillar Google översättning den gör ett ganska bra svenska till engelska.
April 6, 2009 at 8:36 pm |
Kjell, I watched the interview with Matt today. I agree that the supply and demand logic suggests that the price of crude oil will go up as soon as the demand outstrips the supply. But I think the situation will unfold differently. There’s one more thing to it – politics. If politicians wish to restore growth, they cannot allow the price of oil to rise. It seems to me that they will do whatever they can to tackle speculation and perhaps even set the regulated price. It means that they will try to keep the price of crude oil below 147 USD which was too much for many economies. What do you think?