I have just finished attending a security policy conference at Mittuniversitetet [Mid-Sweden University] in Sundsvall. The theme for the conference (organized by the organization People and Defense) was “Crisis preparedness and Crisis management”. County governor Bo Källstrand together with the University’s vice-chancellor Anders Söderholm opened the conference. The storm named Gudrun [on 8 January 2005], that swept in with hurricane-strength over Sweden, was devastating for the electricity supply in southern Sweden. At that time, Bo Källstrand was part of the leadership of Svensk Energi [Swedish Energy] that is responsible for the electricity net – something that clearly qualified him to open the conference. Before Anders Söderholm became vice-chancellor his area of research was management science. In his opening address he described how one can organize crisis management from two points of view. One can build up an organization that will avoid catastrophes, e.g. air traffic control, or one can have an organization that prepares for catastrophes that cannot be predicted. The latter is the type of organization that governments need to organize.
First on the list of speakers was a duo from the Cabinet, i.e. from the office of the prime minister. Swedish tourists in Thailand were hit very hard by the tsunami [of 26 December 2004] and at that time there was no crisis department. The investigative reviews that followed found that there were nations that did have such units. Assistant undersecretary Lars Hedström, whose task it was to organize Sweden’s efforts in Thailand, spent some time describing the experience of nations with crisis departments and how the Swedish organization looks today. The old saying, “One becomes wise from ones injuries” describes it well and today Sweden does have an office for crisis management. We can only hope that we do not need to use it too often.
Lars Hedströms definition of a crisis was interesting for our research work. So what defines a crisis?
• That significant wealth is at risk.
• That limited time is available to respond
• That conditions are characterized by significant uncertainty.
A large part of the research that we do can be classed under these points and it suddenly became clear that our research into resources can also be defined as crisis research, but on a different timescale. It is not about crises today but the crises in our future.
From July 2009 Sweden will take over the presidency of the EU and the office of crisis management may then take on expanded responsibility. Deputy assistant undersecretary Erik Widmar discussed the preparations that this requires and the different events that can lead to various crises for the EU during Sweden’s presidency. Once again, one hopes that it will only be a fraction of these that happen. It is also interesting to note that already today our Prime minister is devoting half of his time to EU-matters.
After a break for coffee it was time for me to speak on “Swedish and European energy security – a thriller in three parts”. At the moment we have four papers in the process of being published concerning this area and I will give details of them later when they are published. But going by the definition of crisis that the Cabinet representative gave above it is completely clear that Sweden is facing an energy crisis in terms of future oil supply. Nearly 90% of the oil that we import comes from three nations: Norway, Denmark and Russia. In an article in Energy Policy from 2008 we showed that Norway’s era as an oil exporter will be over by 2030 and we will show that the same applies to Denmark. In a master thesis from 2008 we also showed that Russian exports will be halved by 2030. The possibility exists for Sweden to take a larger proportion of Russia’s exports but that will require a reprioritization of policies on the part of Sweden.
Europe’s greatest energy crisis is the supply of natural gas, but I will return to that when the articles are published.
The third part in the energy crisis is that, in future, we will have energy problems in terms of the production of food. On May 8 my students Karin and Kersti will present their joint master thesis on “Food and Fuel” at the Ångström laboratory in Uppsala. It is a public presentation so anyone interested is welcome to attend.
I can also take this opportunity to advertise the licentiate thesis that Mikael will defend on May 7. Those aspects of the work that impinge on Swedish energy security in terms of oil will be discussed. Once again, all are welcome to attend. More information will be posed on our group’s website, http://www.fysast.uu.se/ges.
Sundsvall’s newspaper was at the conference and Peter Jonsson’s report is now available on the internet. Read the article “Vi äter olja” [“We eat oil”]. A good article but, for Norway and Denmark, it is their ability to export that will end. They will still have oil for domestic consumption.
The afternoon was given over to military crisis management and Sweden’s involvement in Afghanistan. Of course, energy is relevant even in that case, but at the moment it is not something for “Aleklett’s Energy Mix”.
A big thank you to Lena and Lisa from People and Defense for organizing such an interesting conference
([Michael had time!] I don’t know if Michael has time to translate this [Ed Pell has with help of Google made a translation, look in the comments. Some of the translations are quite funny, but most of it is rather good])
Har just avslutat en säkerhetspolitisk konferens vid Mittuniversitetet (Mid Sweden University) i Sundsvall. Temat för konferensen som anordnades av Folk och Försvar var ”Krisberedskap och Krishantering” och landshövding Bo Källstrand tillsammans med universitetets rektor Anders Söderholm inledda. Stormen Gudrun, som med orkanstyrka svepte in över Sverige var förödande för strömförsörjningen i södra Sverige. Bo Källstrand var då i ledning för Svensk Energi som har ansvar för kraftnätet, något som klart kvalificerade honom att inleda konferensen. Innan Anders Söderholm blev rektor var forskningsområdet organisationsvetenskap och i sitt inledningsanförande beskrev han hur man kan organisera krishantering utifrån två synsätt. Man kan bygga upp en organisation som skall undvika katastrofer, t.ex. flygtrafiken, eller man kan ha en organisation som förbereder sig för katastrofer som man inte kan förutsäga. Den senare är den typ av krisorganisationer om regeringar behöver organisera.
Först på talarlistan var en duo från Statsrådsberedningen, dvs från Statsministerns kontor. Svenska turister i Thailand drabbades hårt av Tsunamin och vid den tidpunkten fanns det inte ett kriskansli. De utredningar som följde visade att det fanns länder som hade sådana enheter och departementsrådet Lars Hedström, som fick organisera upp Sveriges insatser i Thailand, berättade dels om erfarenheter från dessa länder och hur den svenska organisationen ser ut idag. Det gamla ordspråket ”Av skadan blir man vis” passa bra in och idag har Sverige ett kansli för krishantering. Det är bara att hoppas att vi inte behöver använda det allt för ofta.
Lars Hedströms definition av en kris var intressant för vårt forskningsarbete. Så vad är en kris?
• Att betydande värden står på spel.
• Att begränsad tid står till förfogande
• Att omständigheterna präglas av betydande osäkerhet
En stor del av den forskning som vi gör kan plockas in under dessa punkter och helt plötsligt framgick det att vår resursforskning också kan definieras som krisforskning, men med en annan tidsaxel. Det gäller inte kriser just idag utan kriser i vår framtid.
Från juli 2009 tar Sverige över ordförandeskapet för EU och kansliet för krishantering kan då få ett utökat ansvar. Kanslirådet Erik Widmar diskuterade den beredskap som detta kräver och olika händelser som kan leda till olika kriser för EU under ordförandeskapet. Än en gång hoppas man att det bara blir en bråkdel av detta som kommer att hända. Intressant att notera är också att vår Statsminister redan idag ägnar hälften av sin tid åt EU-frågor.
Efter en kaffepaus var det dags för mig att prata om ”Svens och Europeisk energisäkerhet – en rysare i tre akter”. Just nu har vi fyra publikationer på gång som behandlar denna problematik och jag skall återkomma med detaljer då de är publicerade. Med den definition på kris som representanten från regeringskansliet gav här ovan är det helt klart att Sverige står inför en energikris vad det gäller framtida försörjning av olja. Nästan 90 procent av den olja vi importerar kommer från tre länder, Norge, Danmark och Ryssland. I en artikel i Energy Policy från 2008 visar vi att Norges tid som exportland är över 2030 och vi kommer att visa att det samma gäller för Danmark. Ett examensarbete från 2008 visade vi också att den Ryska exporten kommer att halveras fram till 2030. Det finns möjlighet för Sverige att ta en allt större del av den Ryska exporten, men det kan kräva en ny politik prioritering från svensk sida.
Europas stora energikris är naturgasen, men jag kommer att återkomma till det då artiklarna finns publicerade.
Den tredje akten i energikrisen är att vi i en framtid kommer att ha energiproblem vad det gäller den framtida produktionen av mat. Den 8 maj kommer mina studenter Karin och Kersti att presentera sitt examensarbete om ”Food och Fuel” på Ångströmlaboratoriet i Uppsala. Det är en offentlig föreställning så alla intresserade är välkomna.
Jag kan samtidigt göra reklam för den licentiat avhandling som Mikael skall försvara den 7 maj. De arbeten som berör svensk energisäkerhet vad det gäller olja kommer då upp till diskussion. Än en gång välkomna. Mer information kommer att finnas på vår grupps hemsida, http://www.fysast.uu.se/ges.
Sundsvalls Tidning var på plats och nu finns Peter Jonssons reportage på nätet. Läs artikeln “Vi äter olja”. En bra artikel men vad det gäller Norge och Danmark så är det deras förmåga att exportera som tagit slut. Man har forfarande olja för egen konsumtion.
Eftermiddagen ägnades åt militär krishantering och Sveriges engagemang i Afghanistan. Visst kan man plocka in energi även här, men just nu är det utanför ”Aleklett’s Energy Mix”.
Ett stort tack till Lena och Lisa från Folk och Försvar för att ni höll i trådarna för en mycket intressant konferens.
Ed Pell
April 23, 2009
You can use google translation it is pretty good.
Have just completed a security policy conference at the Mid (Mid Sweden University) in Sundsvall. The theme of the conference organized by the People’s Defense and was the “Emergency Management and Crisis Management” and actor Bo Källstrand together with the university rector Anders Söderholm initiated. The storm Gudrun, which, with hurricane force swept in over Sweden was devastating for the power supply in southern Sweden. Bo Källstrand was then in the direction of the Swedish Energy which is responsible for the power grid, something that clearly qualified him to open the conference. Before Anders Söderholm became rector was the field of research organization science and in his introductory speech he described how to organize the crisis based on two approaches. You can build an organization should avoid disasters such as air traffic, or you can have an organization that prepares for disasters that you can not predict. The latter is the type of emergency organizations, governments need to organize.
First on the list was a duo from the Prime Minister, that the Prime Minister office. Swedish tourists in Thailand was hit hard by the tsunami and at that time there was not a crisis cabinet. The investigations that followed showed that there were countries which had such units and departments, the Council Lars Hedström, which was organizing the Swedish projects in Thailand, told partly on experience from these countries and how the Swedish organization today. The old saying “The injury to become a way” a good fit in and today Sweden has a cabinet for crisis management. It is to be hoped that we need not use it too often.
Lars Hedström definition of a crisis was interesting for our research. So what is a crisis?
• The important values are at stake.
• The limited time available
• The circumstances are characterized by significant uncertainty
Much of the research that we do can be picked up during those points, and suddenly it appeared that our resource research can also be defined as crisis research, but with a different timeline. It does not crises just today, but crises in our future.
From July 2009 Sweden will take over the Presidency of the EU and the office of crisis management may have a heightened responsibility. Cabinet Council Erik Widmer discussed the contingency that this requires and the different events that can lead to various crises in the EU during its Presidency. Once again, it is hoped that it will only be a fraction of this will happen. Interesting to note is that our Prime today spend half their time on EU issues.
After a coffee break, it was time for me to talk about “Sven and the European energy security – a thriller in three acts”. Right now has four publications in the pipeline that addresses this problem and I will come back with details when they are published. With the definition of crisis that the representative from the Cabinet Office gave above, it is quite clear that Sweden is facing an energy crisis as regards the future supply of oil. Nearly 90 percent of the oil we import from three countries, Norway, Denmark and Russia. In an article in Energy Policy from 2008, we show that Norway’s time to export over 2030 and we will show that the same applies to Denmark. A thesis from 2008 showed also that the Russian exports will be halved by 2030. It is possible for Sweden to take a growing share of Russian exports, but it may require a new policy priority from the Swedish side.
Europe’s major energy crisis, natural gas, but I will come back to it when articles are published.
The third measure of the energy crisis is that we in the future will have energy problems in the future production of food. On May 8, my students Karin and Kersti to present his thesis on “Food and Fuel” at the Ångström Laboratory in Uppsala. It is a public performance, so all interested are welcome.
I can also make advertising for the licentiate thesis that Mikael will defend May 7. The work concerning American energy security when it comes to oil, then up for discussion. Once again, welcome. More information will be available on our group website, http://www.fysast.uu.se / given.
Sundsvalls magazine was in place and then there is something to refer to as the link here.
The afternoon was devoted to military crisis management, and Sweden’s involvement in Afghanistan. Sure you can pick up the energy again, but right now it outside “Aleklett’s Energy Mix”.
Many thanks to Lena and Lisa from the People’s Defense and for that you did the strings for a very interesting conference.
aleklett
April 23, 2009
Let us see what Micheal think about this.
.perpotator
April 24, 2009
Hej, jag kan inte hitta någon info om den öppna presentationen du pratar om på Ångström i Uppsala. Jag vill åka dit och lyssna men vart exakt är det (i byggnaden alltså) och vilken tid? Kommer det att finnas anslag i byggnaden om det?
.perpotator
April 24, 2009
den om Food och Fuel alltså
Michael
April 24, 2009
Not bad – if translation value = speed x accuracy then the computer wins! If accuracy is more important then I still have something to do for a few weeks more at least.
Olle
April 28, 2009
“Bo Källstrand var då i ledning för Svensk Energi som har ansvar för kraftnätet” är en lite underlig formulering måste jag säga. Svensk Energi är ju snarare en lobbyorganisation och det är väl ändå Svenska Kraftnät som har ansvar för kraftnätet i Sverige.