Comments on: Aviation fuel and future oil production scenarios – “Peak Aviation” http://aleklett.wordpress.com/2009/05/03/aviation-fuel-and-future-oil-production-scenarios-%e2%80%93-%e2%80%9cpeak-aviation%e2%80%9d/ Global Energy Systems, peak oil, etc (Globala energisystem, peak oil, mm) Tue, 08 Dec 2009 07:40:42 +0000 http://wordpress.com/ hourly 1 By: Norman Smit http://aleklett.wordpress.com/2009/05/03/aviation-fuel-and-future-oil-production-scenarios-%e2%80%93-%e2%80%9cpeak-aviation%e2%80%9d/#comment-1558 Norman Smit Tue, 26 May 2009 14:34:55 +0000 http://aleklett.wordpress.com/?p=1028#comment-1558 Would you please consider posting the summary to the biofuelswiki.org with a link back to your blog or the full article in Global Energy Systems? Thanks Would you please consider posting the summary to the biofuelswiki.org with a link back to your blog or the full article in Global Energy Systems?
Thanks

]]> By: Alessandro http://aleklett.wordpress.com/2009/05/03/aviation-fuel-and-future-oil-production-scenarios-%e2%80%93-%e2%80%9cpeak-aviation%e2%80%9d/#comment-1516 Alessandro Fri, 22 May 2009 21:58:32 +0000 http://aleklett.wordpress.com/?p=1028#comment-1516 Well, I don´t share aircraft manufacturer´s expanding views. The aircraft industry is leaning towards bigger and bigger companies, in the +50 seat segment basically one in EU (Airbus and ATR, partly owned by Airbus owners), Boeing in the US, Bombardier in Canada, Embraer in Brazil, RRJ/Sukhoi in Russia (odd Iljyshin Il-96 sold due to political reasons, also Il-62 which Sudan bought as president transportation from leftovers from the USSR, even the odd Tupolev Tu-154 and Tu-204. Japan has also decided to build a jet airliner called MRJ and Chinese have their ARJ (very similar to the old DC-9 in many ways). To get your investment back you need at least 20 years of manufacturing and willing subcontractors whom share the risk and also be able to produce new technology at a good price. Good biz in the future will surely be parking lots in the desert for planes nearing expensive C- and D-checks and waiting for them to be spareparts or scrap. Well, I don´t share aircraft manufacturer´s expanding views. The aircraft industry is leaning towards bigger and bigger companies, in the +50 seat segment basically one in EU (Airbus and ATR, partly owned by
Airbus owners), Boeing in the US, Bombardier in Canada, Embraer in Brazil, RRJ/Sukhoi in Russia (odd Iljyshin Il-96 sold due to political reasons, also Il-62 which Sudan bought as president transportation from
leftovers from the USSR, even the odd Tupolev Tu-154 and Tu-204.
Japan has also decided to build a jet airliner called MRJ and Chinese have their ARJ (very similar to the old DC-9 in many ways). To get your investment back you need at least 20 years of manufacturing and willing subcontractors whom share the risk and also
be able to produce new technology at a good price.
Good biz in the future will surely be parking lots in the desert for planes nearing expensive C- and D-checks and waiting for them to be spareparts or
scrap.

]]> By: Uppsala Airport vs Peak Aviation, Per Sjölund vs Kjell Aleklett - ojämn match? « Lunkens blogg http://aleklett.wordpress.com/2009/05/03/aviation-fuel-and-future-oil-production-scenarios-%e2%80%93-%e2%80%9cpeak-aviation%e2%80%9d/#comment-990 Uppsala Airport vs Peak Aviation, Per Sjölund vs Kjell Aleklett - ojämn match? « Lunkens blogg Thu, 07 May 2009 09:12:27 +0000 http://aleklett.wordpress.com/?p=1028#comment-990 [...] läser Kjells blogg där han uttalar sigom detta, samt hans inlägg om en nypublicerad artikel om Peak Aviation. En av de bästa sakerna med Kjells blogg, förutom det vetenskapliga innehållet, är att han [...] [...] läser Kjells blogg där han uttalar sigom detta, samt hans inlägg om en nypublicerad artikel om Peak Aviation. En av de bästa sakerna med Kjells blogg, förutom det vetenskapliga innehållet, är att han [...]

]]> By: jack http://aleklett.wordpress.com/2009/05/03/aviation-fuel-and-future-oil-production-scenarios-%e2%80%93-%e2%80%9cpeak-aviation%e2%80%9d/#comment-968 jack Wed, 06 May 2009 17:45:19 +0000 http://aleklett.wordpress.com/?p=1028#comment-968 Very interesting !!! Very interesting !!!

]]> By: acka http://aleklett.wordpress.com/2009/05/03/aviation-fuel-and-future-oil-production-scenarios-%e2%80%93-%e2%80%9cpeak-aviation%e2%80%9d/#comment-966 acka Wed, 06 May 2009 15:39:52 +0000 http://aleklett.wordpress.com/?p=1028#comment-966 Perhaps I should also add that the supply scenarios may be too optimistic as they don't seem to consider the ELM issue (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Export_land_model and http://www.energybulletin.net/node/38948), which may result in a much faster decline of available aviation fuel. Concerning demand I think that the proportion of oil used for aviation will rather decrease after peak oil as a larger portion will be needed for less dispensable purposes. Perhaps I should also add that the supply scenarios may be too optimistic as they don’t seem to consider the ELM issue
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Export_land_model
and
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/38948), which may result in a much faster decline of available aviation fuel.

Concerning demand I think that the proportion of oil used for aviation will rather decrease after peak oil as a larger portion will be needed for less dispensable purposes.

]]> By: akae http://aleklett.wordpress.com/2009/05/03/aviation-fuel-and-future-oil-production-scenarios-%e2%80%93-%e2%80%9cpeak-aviation%e2%80%9d/#comment-965 akae Wed, 06 May 2009 13:12:55 +0000 http://aleklett.wordpress.com/?p=1028#comment-965 Very interesting! However I suppose that these scenarios are still optimistic as secondary effects are not considered here. For example bankcruptcies due to the economical stranding of aviation investments: A huge amount of money is being spent for building or expanding airports, which will have excess capacity as soon as peak oil takes effect. The same will happen with remote tourism locations, which had a significant upturn in the past (many countries heavily depend on tourism). Furthermore airlines will get into trouble. A few years ago an airline manager said in a peak oil research meeting that airplanes have a total lifecycle (from development to dismantling) of 50 years! No need to mention that this will also affect the banks that have invested in or lent money to the aviation-dependent sectors, with the consequences we are experiencing in the current downturn. So there will probably be even less air traffic as there will be less money available for flying around. Very interesting!

However I suppose that these scenarios are still optimistic as secondary effects are not considered here. For example bankcruptcies due to the economical stranding of aviation investments:
A huge amount of money is being spent for building or expanding airports, which will have excess capacity as soon as peak oil takes effect. The same will happen with remote tourism locations, which had a significant upturn in the past (many countries heavily depend on tourism).
Furthermore airlines will get into trouble. A few years ago an airline manager said in a peak oil research meeting that airplanes have a total lifecycle (from development to dismantling) of 50 years!
No need to mention that this will also affect the banks that have invested in or lent money to the aviation-dependent sectors, with the consequences we are experiencing in the current downturn.

So there will probably be even less air traffic as there will be less money available for flying around.

]]> By: Ed Pell http://aleklett.wordpress.com/2009/05/03/aviation-fuel-and-future-oil-production-scenarios-%e2%80%93-%e2%80%9cpeak-aviation%e2%80%9d/#comment-815 Ed Pell Sun, 03 May 2009 18:24:06 +0000 http://aleklett.wordpress.com/?p=1028#comment-815 Fewer planes flying will mean less pollution, noise, condensation trails marring the sky. This is good news. Fewer planes flying will mean less pollution, noise, condensation trails marring the sky. This is good news.

]]>