For my part, the conference finished with a panel discussion on “Biofuels in a Global Context”. I will give you few glimpses of it. The moderator for the debate was Brazil’s former Minister for Agriculture Roberto Rodrigues who asserted that ethanol production is a method that evidently works and for which a global market now exists. The panel was to discuss this, the future of agriculture and how important other continents will become.
Lord John Browne, the former head of BP, believed that demand for oil would increase, but that marginal barrels would become more and more expensive. If the price of oil rises above $50 per barrel then ethanol can compete for market share. It is desirable that ethanol be environmental classified and that trade in ethanol cannot be hindered by national or local restrictions. I have written in my notes that he believed that the biofuel sector would increase to 36 billion barrels per year, a number that now sounds completely unrealistic. At the end he said he was looking for clear stable signals from the politicians and that all protective trade tariffs should be removed. The final words were, “Now is the time to invest”.
The USA’s Under Secretary for agriculture, Dallas Tonsager, asserted at the start that Americans now have reduced available income for food etc. and that they are forced to import 65% of the nation’s transport fuel. Their ethanol production is estimated to be 11 billion barrels during 2009. Food prices in the USA have been falling despite the increase in ethanol production.
When the chairman for Petrobras José Sergio Gabrielli rose to speak he illustrated the company’s great success in recent times. Brazil will continue to invest in ethanol and, in future, gasoline will become a complement to ethanol. Flex-fuel cars were praised and when you fill the tank of a flex-fuel car in Brazil you can choose the gasoline-ethanol blend you desire. With respect to electric vehicles the opinion was advanced that these create increased demand for electricity and that this, in its turn, requires more use of coal.
After the debate I was given the opportunity to exchange a few words with Lord Browne and, of course, I asked him about his views on Peak Oil now that is no longer the head of BP. He still did not believe in Peak Oil but, to my amazement, he now believed in “Peak Demand”, i.e. that demand will fall and that this will create a peak in oil production. In terms of barrels produced there is no great difference between the Peak Oil and Peak Demand ideas but if Peak Demand prevails in the future then we will not see a high oil price. We will see what happens with the oil price in the future. I still believe in Peak Oil and an increasing oil price.
(Swedish)
För min del avslutades konferensen med paneldiskussionen om “Biofuels in a Global Context”, och jag skall ge några glimtar. Moderator för debatten var Brasiliens före detta jordbruksminister Roberto Rodrigues, som konstaterade att etanolproduktion är en teknik som bevisligen fungerar och att det nu finns en global marknad. Panelen skulle fundera på detta, jordbrukets framtid och hur betydelsefulla andra kontinenter kommer att bli.
Lord John Browne, BP:s tidigare chef, trodde att efterfrågan på olja skulle öka, men att kostnaden för de marginella faten kommer att bli allt dyrare. Om priset på olja överstiger $50 per fat så kan etanol tävla om marknadsandelar. Det är önskvärt att man klassificerar etanol och att man inte använder nationella eller lokala restriktioner. Jag har noterat att han trodde att biobränslesektorn skulle kunna öka till 36 miljarder fat om året, en siffra som idag låter helt orealistisk. Till slut efterlyste han klara stabila signaler från politikerna och att man tog bort alla skyddstullar. Avslutningsorden var ”Nu är det dags att satsa”.
USA:s biträdande jordbruksminister Dallas Tonsager konstaterade inledningsvis att amerikanerna nu har en minskad tillgänglig inkomst för mat och annat och att man var tvingad att importera 65% av landets transportmedel. Vad det gäller etanol beräknades produktionen bli 11 miljarder under 2009. Vad det gäller livsmedelpriserna så minskade de i USA fastän etanolproduktionen ökar.
Då ordförande för Petrobras José Sergio Gabrielli äntrade talarstolen så personifierade han företagets stora framgångar den senaste tiden. Brasikien skall fortsätta med satsning på etanol och i framtiden skall bensin bli ett komplement till etanol. Flexifuelbilarna lovprisades och då de tankas i Brasilien kan man välja inblandningstalet då man tankar. Vad det gäller elbilar så framfördes synpunkten att dessa skapar ökad efterfrågan på el och att detta i sinn tur kräver mer kolkraft.
Efter debatten fick jag möjlighet att växla några ord med Lord Brown och självfallet frågade jag honom om hans åsikter om Peak Oil, nu då han inte var chef för BP. Han trodde fortfarande inte på Peak Oil men till min förvåning trodde han numera på Peak Demand, dvs att efterfrågan kommer att minska så att vi genom detta får en topp i oljeproduktionen. Vad det gäller producerade fat olja så är det ingen större skillnad, men om det är Peak Demand som är rådande i framtiden kommer vi inte att se ett högt oljepris. Vi får se vad som händer med oljepriset i framtiden. Jag tror dock fortfarande på Peak Oil och ett ökande oljepris.
June 21, 2009 at 7:50 pm |
It seems, after reading about Ethanol and wine competing for arable land, we must more urgently consider how to prevent famine as part of the Peaking Oil dialogue. Experience and research in the modes of transportation continues to lead back to railway as preferred alternative. Individual transport thinking always pictures cars as the “significant other”, but that seems to be less reachable as geology and geopolitics collide.
We seek a desireable model that can include hands on an automobile, but can it also include the larger imperatives of feeding everyone and maintain societal & commercial cohesion? One writer attempts to outline some talking points in ASPO Newsletter 42, article 374, and ASPO Newsletter 1037, article 374. In our timeframe, an Energy conscious industrial designer, Christopher C. Swan has produced “ELECTRIC WATER” (New Society Press,2007). Swan’s book is a compendium of renewable energy methodology, linked to ways and means of localizing transport. Swan calls described methodolgy the “Retail Railway”. Here is an Oil Interregnum “SYSTEMS” approach worthy of examination by professionals and laypeople too, embarking together on the new energy journey.
As for Tahoe Valley Lines, our input has to do with refreshing people’s recollection of the US transport mode mix in first half of the 20th Century. We pick California, once called the “golden State”, in such ignoble straits now. California was the epitome of happy motoring, extolled by the Beach Boy hit songs, now on life support.
In the golden age of the Golden State, the California transportation model is worth examining. A country in itself, blessed with water and sunshine, dependable sea breezes, oil and hydroelectric power, mobility came from a very comprehensive network of railway lines, from main trunk arterial rail corridor, many dozens of branchline laterals, and a shadow complement of electric “Interurban” rail infrastructure, moving people by day, provisions and general cargo by night. These interurban rails connected at strategic but limited interchanges, to the primary mainline rails for give and take of cargo loads.
The energy crisis sets the stage; new players have in their hands many books with accurate accountings of the Pacific Electric, Sacramento Northern, and Northwestern Pacific. Maps of routes and urban warehousing track elements serve to educate a new generation of planners who will weave dual service railways back into the social fabric. This time, container methodology will vastly simplify the downtown handling. Adding renewable wherever possible will make this generation transport system competitive with bicycles.
Military transport doctrine was once coupled to railways; Second Dimension Surface Transport Logistics Platform” language still works. A worldwide mechanism for rehab and replication of the local branchline rails should go along with recommissioned Railroad Operating and Maintenance Battalions. Here, the military unit supports the civillian rail net in emergency, and is seed stock for rail savvy men & women for the general railway employment needs.
California back in discussion: for students, a good example at how rail corridor is scoped for capacity expansion and new lines, see the 1995 CalTrans US50/I-80 Reno-Tahoe Rail Corridor Study. This (unabridged) publication is from Will Kempton, CalTrans Director in Sacramento, CA. Hopefully, the Governor will allow this information to be distributed to friendly nations… Parallel Bar Therapy.
June 21, 2009 at 7:56 pm |
Note ASPO Newsletter 89: ASPO article reference should be #1037.
Apologies for error.