Large oil find in the North sea / Stort oljefynd i Nordsjön

(Swedish below)

Under the headline “Large Oil Find in the North Sea” Dagens Nyheter [Sweden’s largest broadsheet newspaper] describes the largest discovery that has been made in the United Kingdom since 2001 (read a similar article from the BBC). They estimate that the field contains 300 million barrels of oil. Compared with the 30,000 million barrels that the world consumes every year it is only one percent of yearly consumption or sufficient oil for 3 days, 13 hours and 26 minutes. During the period 2001-2009 the UK has pumped up more than 10 times as much as the new find.

Very large fields are called “giant fields” and the size threshold for this title is 500 million barrels. In the oil industry they are happy if they find a field of over 100 million barrels since such finds are very profitable. This oilfield named “Catcher” cannot in any way hinder the ongoing decline of production in the North Sea and, according to our calculations, we estimate that they will find fields of this size now and then.

(Swedish)

Med rubriken ”Stort oljefynd i Nordsjön” berättar Dagens Nyheter om det största fyndet som man gjort i Storbritannien sedan 2001 (läs artikel). Man beräknar att fältet innehåller 300 miljoner fat olja. Jämfört med de 30000 miljoner fat som världen konsumerar varje år är det bara en procent av årskonsumtionen eller olja för 3 dagar 13 timmar och 26 minuter. Under perioden 2001 – 2009 har man pumpat upp mer än 10 gånger så mycket som det nya fyndet.

Riktigt stora fält kallas för gigantfält och gränsen går vi 500 miljoner fat. Inom oljebranschen är man idag glada om man hittar fät över 100 miljoner fat då sådana fynd är mycket lönsamma. Oljefältet Catcher kan på inget sätt hindra den pågående nedgången av produktionen i Nordsjön och vad det gäller våra beräkningar räknar vi med att man skall hitta fält av denna storlek då och då.

Questions and answers about Hayward and Svanberg / Frågor och svar om Hayward och Svanberg

(Swedish below)

During a car trip from Trondheim in Norway to Östersund in Sweden a journalist from Aftonbladet [a Swedish tabloid newspaper] Erika Rydberg rang at 1.30 PM and asked me if I had heard that BP’s CEO Tony Hayward had been sacked. I had not listened to any news so this was naturally a surprise. From this perspective we discussed Carl-Henric Svanberg’s future and participation in the decision and the discussion became an article with the title “Svanberg not affected by CEO-dismissal”

It has now become apparent that it was only responsibility for activities concerning Deepwater Horizon that Hayward has been forced to give up. The answers to the questions from Erika Rydberg would presumably have been a little different if I had known the whole truth but in terms of Svanberg’s role they are presumably not completely in error.

First my comments about what had happened – that (according to the jounalist) Hayward had been sacked as CEO:

- Something had to be done. But since Svanberg does not have anything to do with operations he cannot be blamed in the same way.

What role do you think Svanberg has played in the decision to dismiss Hayward?

- Svanberg came to the game later than Hayward so he has not chosen the current CEO. There is no direct connection between the two. It is the board’s role to appoint a new CEO even if there are presumably people on the board that have been responsible. But as chairman of the board Svanberg is naturally responsible for the decision.

What does the decision to dismiss Hayward mean for Svanberg’s position?

– I do not think that anyone on the board is secure. Now is certainly the time that his ability to lead the company will be tested. If he is a strong leader then I think he will manage it, says Kjell Aleklett.

Shareholders decide

Many British pension funds have invested large sums in BP. Britain’s government has made it clear that it sees it as important that BP remains financially stable. Svanberg’s future will depend on the shareholders.

– It is the shareholders that have all the power, says Kjell Aleklett

(Swedish)

Under en bilresa från Trondheim i Norge till Östersund ringer Aftonbladets journalist Erika Rydberg vid halv två tiden och frågar mig om jag hört att BP:s VD Tony Hayward fått sparken som VD för BP. Jag hade inte lyssnat till några nyheter så det var naturligtvis en stor nyhet. Utifrån detta perspektivet diskuterade vi Carl-Henric Svanbergs framtid och delaktighet i beslutet och det blev en artikel med rubriken ”Svanberg påverkas inte av VD-petningen” (läs i Aftonbladet).

Nu visade det sig att det bara var ansvaret för verksamheten runt Deepwater Horizon som Hayward tvingats att lämna ifrån sig. Svaren på frågorna från Erika Rydberg hade förmodligen varit lite annorlunda om jag vetat hela sanningen, men vad det gäller Svanbergs roll är det förmodligen inte helt fel svar.

Frågor och svar:

Först min kommentar till det inträffade, enligt journalisten att Hayward fått sparken som VD:

– Det krävdes att någonting skedde. Men eftersom Svanberg inte har att göra med driftsledningen, så kan Svanberg inte belastas på samma sätt, säger Kjell Aleklett.

Vilken roll tror du Svanberg har haft i beslutet att peta Hayward?

– Svanberg kom in i leken senare än Hayward, så han har inte valt den vd som sitter nu. Det finns ingen direkt koppling mellan de två. Det är styrelsens roll att tillsätta en ny vd, även om det förmodligen finns fler personer i styrelsen som varit drivande. Men som styrelseordförande är han givetvis ansvarig för beslutet.

Vad innebär beslutet att peta Hayward för Svanbergs position?

– Jag tror inte att någon i styrelsen sitter säkert. Det är väl nu som han testas som företagsledare. Är han en stark ledare så klarar han det här, säger Kjell Aleklett.

Aktieägarna avgör

Flera brittiska pensionsfonder har satsat stort i BP. Storbritanniens regering har gjort klart att den ser som viktigt att BP:s förblir finansiellt stabilt. Svanbergs framtid kommer att hänga på aktieägarna.

– Det är aktieägarna som har hela makten, säger Kjell Aleklett.

”Home run” for Uppsala Global Energy Systems – Deepwater Horizon discussion, the Norwegian gas bubble and an International Lecture Award

Global Energy Systems at Uppsala University hit a home run on Thursday June 17. It began at 7.15 am when Mikael Höök represented the group on SVT TV’s “Good Morning Program”. They discussed the catastrophe in the Gulf of Mexico, how frequently similar accidents happen, why they are forced to drill at these astonishing depths, Peak Oil, and if we can expect more accidents in the future. I myself sat in a hotel room in Bergen [Norway] and could declare that Mikael did well in his first live broadcast.

The next leg was Norway’s largest newspaper “Aftenposten” with a headline that covered the entire front page stating “Rapid end to the gas”. The text began, “Snipp, snapp, snut. The Norwegian gas adventure will end much earlier than the authorities have stated. In ten years production will decline dramatically according to new calculations from Uppsala University.” (In Norway and Sweden one usually finishes children’s tales with the phrase “Snipp, snapp, snut, nu är sagan slut” – “Snipp, snapp, snut, now the story is ended).

The journalist Hilde Harbo then wrote two pages in the Economy section of the newspaper where our (Bengt Söderberg, Kristofer Jakobsson and Kjell Aleklett) publication in Energy Policy “European energy security: The future of Norwegian natural gas production” is discussed. She had also asked the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate for their opinion on our research report and they admitted that they have been all too optimistic. Now they have revised their own prognoses to 2021 and these now follow our estimates. They had not intended to release this before autumn but Hilde Harbo’s article forced the truth out. They still do not want to give any prognoses for the subsequent ten years but they admit that gas production will decline. There is also an article about Bengt’s Ph.D. thesis on the EU’s energy security and they present our view that the EU will have problems.

The next surprise came in the afternoon in Bergen. I was invited to give a presentation at ”The 26th CIMAC World Congress”. It did not strike me immediately as remarkable that it was called “The Collin Lecture”. After the presentation I was asked to remain on stage and then the chairman of Lars Collins Fund, Stephen Dexter, presented me with a certificate that stated that I had been awarded ”The Lars Collin International Lecture Award”. It felt wonderful to receive this, my first award. CIMAC, the International Council on Combustion Engines, is an association of producers of the world’s largest engines and their interest in the fuels of the future is, naturally, very high.

(The article in Aftonposten is translated by Michael Lardelli)

The Norwegian gas bubble will soon burst

Hilde Harbo

Published: 06/17/1910 at. 8:14

Gas should secure the Norwegian economy in an era of rapidly falling oil production. That is the government’s standard response to questions about the near future. But researchers at Uppsala University have presented results indicating that Norway’s gas will decline rapidly.

The Norwegian government’s policy is to be reluctant in publishing long-term forecasts for gas. They justify this on the basis of market considerations. The latest forecast was for as far as 2020, and was published two years ago. It shows steady growth and then a leveling off closer to 2020. No forecasts for gas production are published for the period up to 2030. But the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) in a commentary on the outlook for both oil and gas production wrote that “the share of production from undiscovered resources is increasing every year, and the expectation in 2030 is that it will contribute in excess of 40 percent.”

Exaggerated.

However, a research group at Uppsala University in Sweden, led by Kjell Areklett, professor of physics and global energy systems, said that the NPD has exaggerated expectations of undiscovered gas resources and new discoveries on the Norwegian continental shelf.

Areklett and colleagues have used official figures for Norwegian gas production, gas reserves and gas resources in their calculations. Their analysis is based on a model developed by the researcher Bengt Söderberg for the calculation of future gas production.

Söderberg has created two scenarios, one including the Norwegian
Petroleum Directorate estimates for undiscovered gas resources, and
the other based on that future discoveries only account for half of what the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate has estimated. Even the most optimistic scenario shows that Norwegian gas production does not reach the level the government has set.

Production will fall.

- I do not understand why the Norwegian authorities have not said that gas production will peak as quickly and fall as sharply as it will. Our figures, which have been tested by other researchers, show that production will fall rapidly after 2020, precisely where Norwegian forecasts end, said Areklett. On the other hand he praises Norway for being far more open than most other nations about their production figures and resource estimates.

- Based on these figures we can with our model do fairly accurate estimates of future production, “he said. Areklett attributes the claimed sharp fall in gas production after 2020 to the current production rate and the low size of new discoveries.

- Norway cannot produce more gas than is found. Since the Ormen Lange field in 1997, there have been no discoveries of major importance. New natural gas discoveries are noticeable by their absence, and there is little reason to believe that you will make new giant discoveries in the future,” said Areklett.

- The North Sea has been thoroughly drilled, and with the exception of Snøhvit, exploration in the Barents Sea has so far been a failure. It is possible that the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate made its estimates anticipating major discoveries in the Lofoten area, but it is highly uncertain
that the oil industry will win the struggle to get permission to drill in this part of the Norwegian Sea”, he said.

Suspicious.

He wonders why the Norwegian authorities do not release production estimates for the period after 2020, and suggests that the Norwegian people are being deceived.

- In all other situations energy forecasts have been made for the period up to 2030. This is the case, for example, for the International Energy Agency (IEA). This makes me suspicious, and makes me wonder if the Norwegian authorities do not want to reveal the truth.

- What would be the motive for consciously withholding this information?

- It’s always unpleasant to announce that an industry will end. So far they have been telling the Norwegian people not to be concerned about the end of oil because you have got gas, “said Areklett.

- “But”, he adds, “Norwegian gas production has a “use by” date, and it is not that far in the future”.

NPD estimated in 2008 that we will produce between 125 and 140 billion Sm (3) (standard cubic meters) of gas in 2020. Last year’s production was 103 Sm (3).

Next article by Hilde Harbo

Old forecasts have gas figures that are too high

Published: 06/17/1910 at. 8:16

The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) acknowledges in principal that the Swedish researchers are correct in saying that the NPD forecasts have been too optimistic. They have now revised their estimates.

Aftenposten has gained access to the NPD’s completely fresh projections of future gas production until the year 2021, to be published later this year. It shows a clear decline in the forecasts of gas production compared with the last published figures (2008).

- Yes, it is true that we have been too optimistic. Our expectations have not turned out to be what we thought. In particular, this applies to gas production in the Norwegian Sea. The sizes of the discoveries have been smaller and the time taken to develop the finds has been longer than originally expected, says director Jan Bygdevoll, director of analysis and forecasts in the NPD.

At the same time he believes that any exaggerated expectations up to 2020 do not necessarily lead to a steep decline after that time.

- Part of future production will just take longer than expected to get underway. That will reduce the rate of decline after 2020 that the lack of new major discoveries would otherwise cause, said Bygdevoll.

He claims that some smaller discoveries will initially be more profitable to put into production as they can make use of existing pipelines and infrastructure in nearby fields that will have spare capacity once their production declines.

When it comes to the Swedish researchers’ conclusions about the steep decline in gas production after 2020, he says that the outlook is uncertain and difficult to calculate.

- We agree that gas production begins to decline sometime after 2020 but we do not know how fast. This is partly related to how much one chooses to produce before that point in time and how much we find. Gas production is flexible, and the volumes are not just a consequence of what is possible to produce, but also what might be more profitable if held back, “he said.

The forecasts from Uppsala University published in Aftonposten 2010-06-19

(Swedish)

Torsdagen den 17 juni blev en fullträff för Globala energisystem vid Uppsala universitet. Det började redan klockan 7:15 då Mikael Höök representerade gruppen i SVT:s morgonsoffa. Man diskuterade katastrofen i Mexikanska golfen, hur ofta liknande olyckor händer, varför man tvingas ut på dessa fantastiska djup och om vi kan förvänta oss fler olyckor i framtiden. Själv satt jag på ett hotellrum i Bergen och kunde konstatera att Mikael gjorde en bra insats i sin första direktsändning.

Nästa fullträff var Norges största tidning Aftonposten som med en rubrik som täckte hela förstasiden konstaterade ”Raskt slut på gasen”. Texten börjar ”Snipp, snapp, snut. Det norska gasäventyret vill ta slut mycket tidigare än vad myndigheterna tidigare sagt. Om tio år kommer produktionen att minska dramatiskt enligt nya beräkningar från Uppsala universitet.” (Med frasen “Snipp, snapp, snut, nu är sagan slut” brukar man i Norge och Sverige avsluta en sagoberättelse.)

Journalisten Hilde Harbo får sedan två sidor i ekonomidelen där vår artikel , Bengt Söderberg, Kristofer Jakobsson och Kjell Aleklett, diskuteras och kommenteras. Hon har också frågat det norska Oljedirektoratet om deras åsikt om vår forskningsrapport och man erkänner att man varit allt för optimistiska. Nu har man själva reviderat sina prognoser fram till 2021 och prognoserna följer nu våra beräkningar. Man hade inte tänkt att publicera detta förän till hösten men Hilde Harbos artikel tvingade fram sanningen. Vad det gäller följande tio år vill man fortfarande inte lämna några prognoser men erkänner att det kommer att minska. Det finns också en artikel om Bengts doktorsavhandling om EU:s energisäkerhet och man för fram vår åsikt att EU kommer att få problem.

Nästa överraskning kom på eftermiddagen i Bergen. Jag var inbjuden att hålla föredrag på ”the 26th CIMAC World Congress”. Jag reagerade inte så mycket på att det kallades ”The Collin Lecture”. Efter föredraget fick jag stanna kvar på scenen och då lämnade ordförande för Lars Collins fond, Stephen Dexter, över ett diplom som förkunnade att man tilldelat mig ”The Lars Collin International Lecture Award”. Det kändes fantastiskt att få min första utmärkelse. CIMAC, International Council on Combustion Engines, är en sammanslutning för producenter av världens största motorer och intresset för framtidens bränslen var naturligtvis på topp.

Future scenarios for ”Climate Change and Peak Fossil”

Before the symposium ”Climate Change and Peak Fossil” at the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences Karl Hallding presented his future scenarios as ”concept notes”,

“Scenarios are used to expand the understanding of possible future developments beyond what can be achieved by conventional future projections. As such, scenarios provide powerful capabilities for analyzing and debating the trade-offs between alternative complex societal developments.

There is a variety of approaches to scenarios development. One of the leading schools – known to many as the Shell approach – derives a scenarios logic by combining two dimensions of critical uncertainties into a two-by-two matrix. The resulting scenarios framework identifies four scenarios, each defined by combining the end points on the two uncertainty ranges, each marking the corner stones in a two-dimensional continuum of uncertainties. As such, this kind of scenarios framework could serve as a “wind tunnel” for testing our assumptions about the future, showing on weaknesses and vulnerabilities in our plans and policies for meeting future challenges.”

When I searched for Shell’s scenarios I found them in a presentation from January 2004. Someone from Rapport [a TV news program] was visiting and was interested in a detailed run-through on Peak Oil. If you are interested you can look at the presentation from 2004.

(A note related to another blog: In Debatt [a TV program] on SVT on April 1, Marian Radetzki accused me of continuously shifting forward the timepoint for peak oil. If you look at the presentation you will see that we have, rather, advanced the time for Peak Oil.)

The moment I read “The Shell approach” I got suspicious. In 2003 Shell presented two scenarios on future oil production that went under the names “Dynamic as Usual” and “Spirit of the Coming Age”. The first considered that we would find 2700 billion barrels of oil (Gb) by 2050, i.e. 58 Gb/y during 50 years. The second assumed 1500 Gb of oil or 30 Gb/r. They both showed a maximum in production of 40 Gb/y in 2050 or 2030 respectively which was a sensational idea at that time. Nevertheless, it was completely unrealistic compared with what Colin Campbell and I had published in the journal Minerals and Energy in the same year (download the paper). Our future production scenario was given the name, “Telling the Truth”.

During the Tällberg Forum in 2009 I discussed future energy supply with Gerald Davis and he related then that he was responsible for construction of the different scenarios that the IPCC presented in 2000. (You certainly know these as the scenario families A1, A2, B1 and B2.) He also said that he had earlier been responsible for the scenario studies at Shell (and a search of the internet confirms this).

We know now that the future according to Shell’s scenarios is wrong and now we have shown that the scenarios that the IPCC published in its Special Report on Emissions Scenarios from 2000 are also wrong. To hold up the Shell approach as an ideal does not seem very promising if one wishes to come close to the truth.

Karl Halldig related also that it was the military that began with scenario studies where the “Worst Case” was always included. One can imagine that it is good to have a “Worst Case” when one discusses scenarios with the politicians that decide on defense budgets. It was perfect to have scenario at hand that was sufficiently terrifying to ensure funding. The future that we want to describe does not need this extra spice. It is sufficient that it is the most believable scenario.

“Unique research meeting on the radio program The Globe. Climate and dwindling oil” / ”Unikt forskarmöte i Klotet. Klimat och sinande olja.”

Johan Rockström, Marie-Louise Kristola, Karl Hallding, Kjell Aleklett and Henrietta Palmer after The Globe’s broadcast from SEI.

Yesterday there was a symposium on Climate and Peak Oil at the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences where Professor Johan Rockström presented the current situation in climate research and I discussed Peak Oil and the importance of energy for the global well-being equation. A recording of the program will soon be available on the internet.

Immediately after the symposium there was a live broadcast on the Swedish radio program The Globe and I think it went well. Johan Rockström, Swede of the Year 2009, has now taken an interest in our research and he said, “That which is so incredibly important and is the page to which we now turn is a scientific page. Thanks to Kjell’s very well respected international research there is now evidence that we are approaching a resource crisis on the fossil fuel front. At SEI (Stockholm Environment Institute) we are gathering research evidence which also indicates that the risks on the climate front are much greater than we have previously seen. This is leading to a new drama around the climate issue since oil is the key to our welfare. So how will we manage this transition?

I think that you that understand Swedish should listen to The Globe program. We hope that this will be the historic turning point in the climate debate, the turning point that we hoped for as far back as 2003 when we presented our first report. (Listen to The Globe [in Swedish])

(Swedish)

Igår var det ett seminarium om klimat och Peak Oil på Kungliga vetenskapsakademin där professor Johan Rockström presenterade dagsläget i klimatforskningen och där jag diskuterade Peak Oil och energins betydelse för den globala välfärden. Man skall i en nära framtid lägga ut seminarierna på nätet.

Direkt efter seminariet blev det direktsändning i radioprogrammet Klotet och jag tycker att det blev ett bra inlägg. Johan Rockström, årets svensk 2009, har nu tagit till sig vår forskning och han säger: ”Det som är så oerhört viktigt och det blad som vi nu vänder är ett vetenskapligt blad. Nu finns det tack vare Kjells oerhört välrenommerade internationella forskning belägg för att vi närmar oss en resurskris på den fossila fronten och vi samlar på SEI forskningen där vi också pekar på att riskmönstret vad det gäller klimateffekten är mycket större än vad vi tidigare sett. Det här leder till ett nytt drama kring klimatproblematiken i och med att oljan är nyckeln till välfärd. Så hur ska vi klara den här övergången?”

Jag tycker att ni skall lyssna på Klotet. Vi hoppas att detta skall bli den historiska vändpunkten i klimatdebatten, den vändpunkt som vi hoppades på redan 2003 då vi presenterade vår första rapport. (Lyssna på Klotet)

The 5th Global YES Summit – Rework the World (4)

Now we have come to Friday and Day 3. The main speaker of the day was Maud Olofsson, the deputy prime minister, minister for industry and minister for energy. The introductory words in her speech were crisis, crisis and crisis and then she asserted that the world’s two greatest crises are the climate crisis and the finance crisis. Important parties to manage these crises are innovation and enterprise and especially important elements are young people. Today’s young business people have completely new possibilities for working internationally and globalization was mentioned in positive terms – in my view all too positive. Swedish innovations were praised and she believed that contemporary technology would benefit Swedish innovations in the future. Sweden was mentioned often.

Minister Olofsson also discussed the international perspective and, above all, the increased need for greater efficiency. She mentioned, among other things, a collaboration agreement between South Africa and Sweden for development of renewable technologies. It was also important that everyone should get access to electricity.

Then our Minister for Energy began to discuss the fact that 60% of the energy that we produce in Europe is lost through heat losses and one was led to believe that Maud Olofsson meant that new innovations would take care of this energy. I assume that a speechwriter has been involved and a suggestion is that the speechwriter learn the second law of thermodynamics and the difference between energy and exergy. Of course one can use a part of the heat in the cooling water from electricity production but to generate electricity that is exergy requires work that becomes heat. The overall impression of the presentation was positive and that was precisely the feeling that was needed here.

The next speaker was Percy Barnevik that reviewed the fantastic work done by Hand in Hand. He noted how important it is to create employment and it was an impressive number of jobs that they have created in various places around the world. He criticized funding for infrastructure (that certainly is needed in future) saying that the first requirement was jobs, jobs and more jobs.

I recommend that you listen to his fantastic presentation. The concluding message was that we should prioritise assistance that leads to people being able to help themselves. Long and warm applause indicated that the audience appreciated the message. (Listen to Maud Olofsson and Percy Barnevik)

Friday afternoon and Saturday morning offered many “rework” sessions and many addressed energy. Of those projects that I looked at I would like to mention a lamp project from Laos.

Over 40% of the population in Laos lacks electricity. Instead, they use kerosene lamps to light up the dark. Peak Oil means that the kerosene is becoming more expensive and the fact is that the world’s poorest nations are more dependent on oil relative to their GDP than we are. The project is based on that one could buy 10 hours of light as a charge in a unit that has a lamp and plug for e.g. a mobile telephone. The price was lower than for the kerosene for the corresponding lighting time. The advantage with the system was that one did not need to own the unit. We who are flooded with light naturally find it difficult to understand what it means to go without it. The units are charged by solar cells and there were many other projects that showed how important renewable energy is for the world’s poor.

To finish I would once again like to direct you to ”videos on demand”, but I would also like to mention that the group that worked with policy questions asserted that access to energy should be a new human right. Five years ago I was to summarise a working group’s conclusions and I had gotten the group to agree that “access to energy should be a human right”.

Energy has been part of the agenda at the Tällberg Form in recent years but it was now for the first time at “The 5th Global YES Summit” that energy has really been raised to the position that the issue deserves.

(Swedish)

Vi har nu kommit fram till fredag och dag 3. Dagens huvudtalare var Maud Olofsson, vice stadsminister, näringsminister och energiministerminister. Inledningsorden i hennes anförande var kriser, kriser och åter kriser och sedan konstaterade hon att världens två största kriser var klimatkrisen och finanskrisen. Viktiga aktörer för att klara av kriserna är innovationer och företagande och då särskilt viktiga aktörer är ungdomar. Dagens unga företagare har helt andra möjligheter att arbeta internationellt och globalisering nämndes med positiva förtecken, enligt min åsikt allt för positivt. Svenska innovationer prisades och hon menade att dagens teknik skulle vara positiv för svenska innovationer i framtiden. Det blev mycket Sverige.

Minister Olofsson diskuterade också det internationella perspektivet och då framförallt ökat behov av effektivisering. Hon nämnde bland annat ett samarbetsavtal mellan Sydafrika och Sverige vad det gäller utveckling av förnybar teknologi. Att alla skall få tillgång till elektricitet var också en viktig fråga.

Sedan började vår energiminister att diskutera det faktum att 60 % av den energi som vi producerar i Europa går förlorad som värmeförluster och man fick uppfattningen att Maud Olofsson menade att man med ny innovationer skulle kunna ta vara på denna energi. Jag utgår från att någon talskrivare har varit inblandad och ett förslag är att hon/han bör lära sig termodynamikens andra lag och skillnaden mellan energi och exergi. Visst kan man använda en del av värmet i kylvattnet vid elproduktion men att skapa el som är exergi så krävs det ett arbete som blir värme. Helhetsintrycket av föredraget var positivt och det var just denna känsla som behövdes i arenan.

Näste föredragshållare var Percy Barnevik som redogjorde för den fantastiska verksamhet som Hand in Hand gör. Han poängterade hur viktigt det är att skapa jobb och det var ett imponerande antal som man skapat på olika platser i världen. Han kritiserade stöd till infrastruktur, som visserligen behövs i framtiden, men först behövs det jobb, jobb, och åter jobb.

Jag rekommenderar att ni lyssnar till hans fantastiska föredrag. Avslutningsbudskapet var att vi skulle prioritera hjälp som leder till att man kan hjälpa sig själv. En lång och varm applåd visade att vi som lyssnade uppskattade budskapet. (Lyssna till Maud Olofsson och Percy Barnevik)

Fredag eftermiddag och lördag förmiddag bjöd på många ”rework” sessioner och flera behandlade energi. Av de projekt som jag tog del av vill jag nämna ett lampprojekt från Laos.

Över 40% av befolkningen i Laos saknar elektricitet, istället är det fotogenlampor som lyser upp i mörkret. Peak Oil medför att karossen blir allt dyrare och faktum är att världens fattigaste länder har i förhållande till sin BNP större beroende av olja än vad vi har. Projektet byggde på att man kunde köpa 10 timmars ljus, som fanns laddat i en enhet som hade en lampa och kontakter till t.ex. en mobiltelefon. Priset var lägre än vad karossen för motsvarande ljustid kostade. Fördelen med systemet var att man inte behövde äga enheten. Vi som flödar i ljus har naturligtvis svårt att förstå vad det innebär att vara utan. Enheterna laddades med hjälp av solceller och det var många andra projekt som visade hur betydelsefullt förnybar energi är för världens fattiga.

Vad det gäller avslutningen hänvisar jag än en gång till ”videos on demand”, men vill ändå nämna att gruppen som arbetade med policy frågor konstaterade att tillgång till energi borde vara en ny mänsklig rättighet. För fem år sedan skulle jag sammanfatta en arbetsgrupps slutsatser och jag hade då fått gruppen att enas om att ”tillgång till energi borde vara en mänsklig rättighet”.

Energi har funnits med på agendan vid Tällberg Form de senaste åren, men det var först nu på ”The 5th Global YeS Summit” som energi verkligen lyftes fram till den plats som frågan förtjänar.

Scenarios of fundamental global challenges

Welcome to a Stockholm seminar with Kjell Aleklett, Karl Hallding and Johan Rockström

Time: Wednesday June 9, 2010, 09.30-12.00
Place: The Beijer Hall, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Lilla Frescativägen 4, Stockholm

The world as we have known it is changing. The fossil fuels that have predicated the matchless expansion of the 20th century show difficulties in keeping up with increasing demand. At the same time continued use of remaining fossil deposits risks pushing the world towards catastrophic climate changes.

Each of these fundamental issues — energy and climate — constitutes formidable security challenges for the global society. But the combination of the two may have consequences far beyond our imagination.

The purpose of this seminar is to explore how a combination of energy- and climate securities scenarios could be used to better understand the fundamental challenges that the world is facing, in order for us to be better prepared for a pallet of possible global and regional changes in the coming decades.

Programme
09:30 Welcome and introduction to four scenarios created from the uncertainties of peak fossil and climate change. Moderator: Karl Hallding, SEI

09:45: Peak fossil: Energy and the global welfare equation Kjell Aleklett, Professor, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems Group, Uppsala University.

10:05: Climate Change: Consequences and uncertainties Johan Rockström, Professor and Director, Stockholm Environment Institute and Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University

10:25: What new insights and questions rise from an integrated analysis?
Cross-cutting reflections from Kjell Aleklett and Johan Rockström

10:45 Break

11:15 Commentaries:

Agnes von Gersdorff, Swedish vice-cheif negotiatior on climate
Henrietta Palmer, Professor of architecture, Royal University College of Fine Arts, Stockholm
Kerstin Nibleus, Chairman Stockholm Environment Institute
Anders Wijkman, Tällberg Foundation

11:35: Open discussion

11:55: Closing remarks, Karl Hallding

The seminar is arranged in cooperation with the Royal University College of Fine Arts, Stockholm, and the Global Energy Systems Group, Uppsala University.

The 5th Global YES Summit – Rework the World (3)

For me, day 2 of The 5th Global YES Summit followed the energy line. The morning offered three sessions under the following headings (Video on demand):

1. The context: What world to rework?
2. The openings: Where are the opportunities?

3. Realities on the ground: Global pressures, local conflicts

Every session was interesting and, in terms of the connection to energy, the importance of systems thinking was highlighted. One contribution was very much connected with oil – it was about oil spills in the Niger delta in Nigeria. Hafsat Abiola-Castello is from that area and she painted a very colourful picture. It can be found within the recording of the third session but I have also uploaded my recording of it onto YouTube. For the Mexican Gulf oil spill BP has promised to pay the costs of the clean up. It is time for Shell to come forward and do the same for the spills in the Niger delta. Hafsat Abiola-Castello cited John Vidal of The Guardian who is doing a great job fighting for the poor in the Niger delta. The rest of the world’s journalists should do the same. (Hafsat Abiola-Castello on YouTube).

In the afternoon there were five parallel sessions one could follow and energy was one of these. (Program for the energy session). I was happy that the organizers had invited me to summarise the session and it was with excitement that I took a seat in the Arena. The fact that we were in the Arena meant that they recorded the entire session and you can all watch the presentations and hear the summary that I tried to make. The intention behind these sessions was to present real energy projects and several of the leaders for the projects were young businesspeople. (Video on demand)(Video on demand):

We heard about projects for the poor in India and on solar collectors that focused the sun’s rays so that one could cook meat in western China without needing to burn scavenged wood that makes pollution that is damaging for people’s health and the environment. From Rwanda came a presentation on a generator that one powers by “cycling” and that can charge mobile phones and similar equipment. The last presentation was about solar energy systems in Bangladesh. From a global perspective it is obvious that these projects contribute only the tiniest amount of energy but for the world’s poor these projects are enormously important. I will return to this in my summary.

To the panel came Ola Alterå, (the undersecretary of state to the Minister for Energy Maud Olofsson) and Ragnvald Naero from Statkraft of Norway. The first to comment on the presented projects was Ragnvald Naero. He gave them a pat on the back but not much more. Ola Alterå also gave them a pat on the back and asserted that there is sufficient energy for the presented projects and that, in practice, there is no problem with financing them since they are quite cheap. Then he slid into how wonderful Sweden is in terms of renewable energy. Anders Wijkman asked why Sweden donated so little to developing nations in terms of energy projects and the response was quite unclear but I nevertheless understood it as a yes to increased contributions.

The public was then allowed to participate and a lively debate followed. Before my summary Ragnval Naero from Statkraft was given the opportunity to tell us about Norway’s investment in osmotic electricity production. This is a very interesting project and I recommend that you examine it on the internet.

In my summary I asserted once again that it is access to energy that is decisive for our future. We had been shown evidence that small energy flows can change conditions for a great many in the world and we can also state that renewable energy can be decisive. Energy from the sun, from wind and from waves costs nothing and it is very well suited to the world’s poor – the problem is to find the right way to harvest the energy. It may be that the energy efficient systems that the developing world needs can be replaced by significantly cheaper systems that are a little less efficient. In conclusion I noted that Peak Oil means that kerosene will not be part of our future and that oil costs will lay claim to an increased fraction of the GDP of the poorer nations.

Later in the evening it was time for my presentation and I was happy that the general director of the Energy Authority, Tomas Kårberg came and listened. In my first commentary on The 5th Global YES Summit you can find my summary of the presentation. It makes a big difference to get an hour to explain our research compared to only 30 minutes and I can now state that with an hour at my disposal I was able to get the message through. I have never received such extended applause for a presentation. My good friend John Liu held the video camera during my presentation and it is my intention that the film will be edited and made available online. The slides from my presentation will also be made available on the internet. (Download presentation)

(Swedish)

Dag 2 av The 5th Global YES Summit blev för min del energispåret, men förmiddagen bjöd på tre avdelningar under rubrikerna (Video on demand):

1. The context: What world to rework?
2. The openings: Where are the opportunitirs?
3. Realities on the ground: Global pressures, local conflicts

Varje avdelning är intressant och vad det gäller koppling till energi så poängterades vikten av systemtänkande. Ett inlägg hörde verkligen ihop med olja och det gällde oljeutsläpp i det Nigerdeltat i Nigeria. Hafsat Abiola-Castello är från detta område och hon målade upp en mycket färgstark berättelse. Den finns inbäddad i den tredje avdelningen men jag har också lagt ut min egen inspelning på TouTube. Vad det gäller Mexikanska Golfen har BP lovat att stå för kostnaderna för uppröjningen. Det är dags att Shell ställer sig upp och gör det samma för utsläppen i Nigerdeltat. Hafsat Abiola-Castello citerade John Vidal, The Guardian, som kämpar förtjänstfullt för de fattiga i Nigerdeltat, journalister runt om i världen bör göra det samma. (Hafsat Abiola-Castello on YouTube)

På eftermiddagen fanns det fem spår att följa och energi var ett av dessa (Program for the energy session). Till min glädje hade organisatörerna bett mig att sammanfatta sessionen och det var med spänning som jag bänkade mig i Arenan. Det faktum att vi var i Arenan medförde att man spelade in hela sessionen och ni kan alla följa presentationerna och ta del av den sammanfattning som jag försökte göra. Tanken bakom sessionen var att presentera verkliga energiprojekt och flera av ledarna för projekten var unga företagare. (Video on demand)

Vi fick höra om projekt för de fattigaste i Indien, om solfångare som fokuserade solstrålarna så att man skall kunna koka mat i västra Kina utan att använda insamlad ved som ger föroreningar skadliga för hälsa och miljö, från Rwanda presenterades en generator som man driver genom att ”cykla” och som kan ladda upp mobiltelefoner och liknande utrustning, och det sista inlägget behandlade solenergisystem i Bangladesh. Ur ett globalt perspektiv är det självklart att dessa projekt bidrar med ofantligt lite energi, men för världens fattiga är dessa projekt enormt viktiga. Jag återkommer till detta i min sammanfattning.

Panelen utökades med Ola Alterå, statssekreterare till energiminister Maud Olofsson, och Ragnvald Naero, Statkraft, Norway och först ut att kommentera de presenterade projekten var Ragnvald Naero. Det blev en klapp på axeln men inte så mycket mer. Ola Alterå gav också en klapp på axeln och konstaterade att det fanns tillräckligt med energi för presenterade projekt och att det i praktiken inte var något problem med finnanser då de är ganska billiga. Sedan gled han in på hur bra Sverige är vad det gäller förnybar energi. Anders Wijkman frågade varför Sverige lämnade så lite bidrag till utvecklingsländerna i form av energiprojekt och svaret blev ganska suddigt men jag uppfattade ändå det som ett ja till ökad satsning.

Publiken släpptes in och en livlig debatt följde. Innan min sammanfattning fick Ragnvald Naero från Statkraft möjlighet att berätta om Norges satsning på osmotisk elproduktion. Ett mycket intressant projekt som jag rekommenderar att ni studerar på lämpliga hemsidor.

I min sammanfattning konstaterade jag på nytt att det är tillgång till energi som är avgörande för vår framtid. Vi fick exempel på att det är små energiflöden som kan ändra villkoren för väldigt många i världen och vi kan också konstatera att förnybar energi kan bli avgörande. Energi från solen, från vind och vågor kostar inget och det passar väldigt bra för världens fattiga, problemet är att hitta rätt sätt att skörda energin. Det kan vara så att de energieffektiva system som den utvecklade världen kräver kan ersättas med betydligt billigare lite mindre effektiva system som är betydligt billigare. Avslutningsvis markerade jag att Peak Oil medför att Karossen inte tillhör framtiden och att oljekostnader upptar en större del av de fattiga ländernas BNP.

Senare på kvällen var det dags för mitt föredrag och till min glädje kom Energimyndighetens generaldirektör Tomas Kårberg och lyssnade. I min första kommentar till The 5th Global YES Summit finns min sammanfattning till föredraget. Det är en stor skillnad att få en timma att förklara vår forskning jämfört med 30 minuter och jag kan nu konstatera att med en timma till förfogande finns det möjlighet att få fram budskapet. Jag har tidigare aldrig fått en längre applåd för ett föredrag. Min gode vän John Liu höll i videokameran under mitt föredrag och det är meningen att filmen skall bearbetas och göras tillgänglig. Presentationen kommer också att läggas ut. (Download presentation)

The 5th Global YES Summit – Rework the World (2)

The train journey up to Leksand became, in a real way, the beginning of the conference. By chance, I wound up sitting next to representatives of the Department of Foreign Affairs that is one of the main sponsors of “The 5th Global YES Summit”. YES stands for “Youth Entrepreneurship and Sustainability. When I looked around the carriage there was luggage everywhere and everywhere one could see smiling, enthusiastic young people speaking all languages imaginable. There was no doubt that this was the train to the conference. At around 2 PM we arrived in Borlänge and it was time to change trains. The platform was filled with expectant youth, the middle aged and we who have passed 55 years – an age threshold that is often used to classify the older population in Sweden. When the smaller train to Leksand arrived I realized that it would become full but I was fortunate in that the doors to one of the wagons opened just where I stood waiting so I could just climb on and take a seat. When everyone had boarded the train it was clear that many would have to stand up on the journey up to Leksand.

Those responsible for organizing “The 5th Global YES Summit” are the Tällberg Foundation and when opening the summit we were welcomed by Poonam Ahluwalia, the President of YES USA and Carl Mossfeldt, the Executive Vice President of the Tällberg Foundation. Besides the approximately 1,700 of us that attended there were an additional 800 people around the world that participated via the internet. Those of you who want to experience the ambience in Leksand kan see everything that happened during the plenary session via the homepage of the Tällberg Foundation. I will only mention some of those that were present.

The first main speaker was Mary Robinsson, the former president of Ireland who is, among other things, a member of Nelson Mandela’s organization “The Elders”. This time she was representing “Realizing Rights”. She said that she had just returned from a meeting with “The Elders” and that they had mainly discussed the situation in Gaza. She said that we must reintroduce justice for those one and a half million people who live in Gaza. She fully supported the attempt to take in aid to Gaza by boat and she challenged everyone to do all they could to bring about change in Gaza.

During their meeting in Johannesburg, The Elders has also met 80 young Africans from 12 nations in Africa. They had divided themselves up into various groups and had had round table discussions on how they would create employment for today’s youth. We often hear that our youth are our future, but the reality is that they already exist all around us and that they are part of our reality today. The youth of Africa pointed out that they are, in reality, not poor but actually rich but that the leaders of the African nations did not have the ability to take care of this wealth. It was, in fact, just this that Kristofer Jakobsson showed in his thesis work on Sub Saharan Africa. The energy resources that are needed to break out of poverty in Africa exist there, but the resources are shipped out from the continent so that other parts of the world can live a better life that one can in Africa.

She also discussed our human rights and, with YES in mind, our right to have employment. To conclude, Mary Robinson discussed the fact that FIFA had required South Africa to stop any street trade that was not sponsored by FIFA. At the end she also discussed oil’s significance for Africa and how important mobile telephones are for the future. Look for her speech and listen if these are questions that interest you. It was a very inspiring presentation. (Mary Robinsson comes in at the end of part 1)

There are two more presentations that I want to mention from the opening day and they are by Professor Rosling, who discussed tomorrow’s youth and how many will exist on Earth, (go to presentation)and my good friend John D Liu from Beijing who once again showed that one can rehabilitate eco function systems by using knowledge about the nature. (John make his presentation in the last third of this section)

Those are two additional presentations to watch.

(Swedish)

Tågresan upp till Leksand blev på ett påtagligt sätt en början på konferensen. Av en slump hamnade jag jämte representanter från utrikesdepartementet, som är en av de stora sponsorerna till ”The 5th YES Summit”, och YES står för Youth Entrepreneuship and Sustainability. Då jag tittade mig runt omkring i vangen så stod det resväskor överallt och överallt såg man leende entusiastiska ungdomar som pratade alla tänkbara språk, det fanns ingen tvekan om att detta var tåget till konferensen. Vid tvåtiden kom vi fram till Borlänge och det var dags att byta tåg. Perongen fylldes av förväntansfulla ungdomar, medelålders och vi som passerat 55 år, en åldersgräns som ofta används då vi delar upp befolkningen i Sverige. Då det mindre tåget till Leksand anlände insåg jag att det skulle bli fullt, men till min lycka öppnades dörren till en av vagnarna just där jag stod och väntade och det var bara att stiga på och ta plats. Då alla kommit på tåget visade det sig mycket riktigt att många fick stå upp på resan upp till Leksand.

Ansvariga för genomförandet av ”The 5Th Global YES Summit” är Tällberg Foundation och vi välkomnades av Poonam Ahluwalia, president YES USA, och Carl Mossfeldt, Executive Vice President för Tällberg Foundation. Förutom vi ca 1700 som var där fanns det ytterligare 800 personer runt om i världen som var med oss via webben. Ni som vill uppleva stämningen i Leksand kan via hemsidan för Tällberg Foundation vara med oss på nytt och se allt som hände under plenarsessionen, jag kommer bara att nämna några få framträdanden.

Först huvudtalare var Mary Robinsson, före detta president för Irland, medlem i Nelson Mandelas organisation ”The Elders”, mm. Nu representer hon Realizing Rights. Hon berättade att hon just kommit tillbaka från ett möte med ”The Elders”, och att man framförallt hade diskuterat situationen i Gaza. Hon menade att vi måste återskapa rättvisa för de en och en halv miljoner personer som bor i Gaza. Aktionen att med båt försöka föra in förnödenheter till Gaza fick hennes fulla stöd och hon uppmanade alla att göra allt man kunde för att åstakomma en förändring i Gaza.

”The Elders” hade också under mötet i Johannesburg träffat 80 unga afrikaner från 12 olika länder i Afrika. Man hade delat upp sig i olika grupper och haft rundabordsdiskussioner om hur man skulle skapa jobb för dagens ungdomar. Vi hör ofta att våra ungdomar är vår framtid, men verkligheten är att de finns här nu runt omkring os och att de tillhör vår verklighet idag. Ungdomarna i Afrika poängterade att man i själva verket inte var fattiga utan att man är rika, men att ledarna för länderna inte hade förmåga att ta vara på denna rikedom. Det var faktiskt just detta som Kristofer Jakobsson visade i sitt examensarbete om Sub Sahara Afrika. De energiresurser som behövs för att bryta fattigdomen i Afrika finns där, men resurserna skeppas ut från kontinenten så att andra delar av världen kan leva ett bättre liv än vad man kan göra i Afrika.

Hon diskuterade också våra mänskliga rättigheter och med tanke på YES vår rättighet att ha ett arbete. Avslutningsvis diskuterade Mary Robinsson det faktum att FIFA hade krävt att Sydafrika skulle avlägsna gatuhandel som inte sponsrade FIFA. Till slut diskuterade hon även oljans betydelse i Afrika och hur betydelsefull mobiltelefonen är för framtiden. Sök upp hennes tal och lyssna om detta är frågor som intresserar dig. Det är ett mycket inspirerande föredrag.

Det finns ytterligare två föredrag som jag vill nämna från inledningsdagen och det är professor Hans Rosling, som diskuterade morgondagens ungdomar, hur många skall vi bli på jorden och min gode vän John D Liu från Beijing som än en ngång visade att man kan ändra förutsättningarna om man arbetade med naturen. Ytterligare två föredrag att titta på.

The 5th Global YES Summit – Rework the World (part 1)

More than 1500 people have confirmed that they will attend ”The 5th Global YES Summit – Rework the World” i Leksand (go to YES). Entrepreneurs, business leaders, investors, opinion markers and, not least, ambitious young people will gather from over 110 nations. The meeting’s focus is to create socially and environmentally sustainable employment opportunities. In all there will probably be more than 140 seminars and debates and all the delegates are offered guided nature excursions.

“Rework the World” is the largest meeting of its type that has been held in Sweden. On an international level, it is a similar size to global meetings such as the G20 meeting and the World Economic Forum that, in 2009, had representatives from 91 nations.

One of the parallel sessions on Thursday afternoon is ENERGY and I have been given the task of summarizing the session. In the evening there will be around 6 seminars and they have given me an hour to speak about and discuss the following:

“Peak Oil and the Humanity’s Well-Being Equation”

My abstract can be seen below. I hope that some of the 1600 at the meeting will come and listen. In coming days there will be more reports from Leksand.

Peak Oil and the Humanity’s Well-Being Equation

Presentation by Kjell Aleklett, Professor at Global Energy Systems, Uppsala University, Sweden and President of ASPO International (Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas)

If we study our well-being in detail we can discern four important components. They are food and water, climate, the economy and peace on Earth. Each component is immensely important and is discussed continuously in various meetings around the world. However, the fact is that these components are coupled and dependent upon one another. “Humanity’s Well Being” (HWB) can be summarized in an equation that shows this and when we study the interdependence of these factors we see that they are all dependent upon energy (E):

HWB(E) = Food&Water(E) + Economy(E) + Climate(E) + Peace(E)

Today, fossil fuels are more then 80 percent of the commercial energy used for our well-being. A reduction of 50-90% in use by 2050 is currently discussed as we have clear evidence that our climate is affected by energy use. What is not mentioned is that this reduction will affect our food production and our economy.
Oil is a limited natural resource and we have strong evidences for a plateau production since 2005, we are running at “Peak Oil”. Natural gas will soon enter the same twilight zoon and the production possibilities for coal are also limited. Our HWB equation needs energy in the future and we can now say that “Business As Usual” is not an option for the future. We need new fossil free energy systems, not only for the climate but also for food, economical growth and peace on the planet.

(Swedish)

Fler än 1500 personer har bekräftat deltagande i ”the 5th Global YES Summit – Rework the World” i Leksand (go to YES). Entreprenörer, företagsledare, investerare, opinionsbildare och inte minst, ambitiösa ungdomar kommer att samlas från över 110 länder. Mötets fokus är att skapa socialt och miljömässigt hållbara arbetstillfällen och kommer att innehålla hela mer än 140 seminarier och debatter där bl a alla deltagare erbjuds utflykter med naturguider.

”Rework the World” är det största mötet av sitt slag som har hållits i Sverige och är med internationella mått i paritet med globala möten så som G20 och World Economic Forum, som 2009 hade 91 länder representerade.

På torsdag eftermiddag är en av parallella sessioner ENERGI och jag har fått i uppdrag att sammanfatta sessionen. På kvällen blir det ca 6 seminarier och man har gett mig en timma för att berätta om och diskutera:

“Peak Oil and the Humanity’s Well-Being Equation”

Mitt abstrakt finns här nedan. Jag hoppas att några av de 1600 som är där kommer och lyssnar. De närmaste dagarna blir det rapporter från Leksand

Peak Oil and the Humanity’s Well-Being Equation

Presentation by Kjell Aleklett, Professor at Global Energy Systems, Uppsala University, Sweden and President of ASPO International (Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas)

If we study our well-being in detail we can discern four important components. They are food and water, climate, the economy and peace on Earth. Each component is immensely important and is discussed continuously in various meetings around the world. However, the fact is that these components are coupled and dependent upon one another. “Humanity’s Well Being” (HWB) can be summarized in an equation that shows this and when we study the interdependence of these factors we see that they are all dependent upon energy (E):

HWB(E) = Food&Water(E) + Economy(E) + Climate(E) + Peace(E)

Today, fossil fuels are more then 80 percent of the commercial energy used for our well-being. A reduction of 50-90% in use by 2050 is currently discussed as we have clear evidence that our climate is affected by energy use. What is not mentioned is that this reduction will affect our food production and our economy.
Oil is a limited natural resource and we have strong evidences for a plateau production since 2005, we are running at “Peak Oil”. Natural gas will soon enter the same twilight zoon and the production possibilities for coal are also limited. Our HWB equation needs energy in the future and we can now say that “Business As Usual” is not an option for the future. We need new fossil free energy systems, not only for the climate but also for food , economical growth and peace on the planet.