Australia December 2010: “Camp Peak Oil Adelaide” – report 6

A very important part of my visit to Australia is work on a new book on peak oil. The working title of the book is “Peeking at Peak Oil”. During one month Olle Qvennerstedt (see Olle’s homepage, hompage with art), Michael Lardelli from Adelaide and I will work on the book. Our aim is to have completed half of it by the time we leave Adelaide.

This idea began when the publishing house Springer from Holland contacted me in May and wanted to come to Uppsala to discuss a new book on peak oil. During the summer we discussed particular forms for the book. In September I submitted an outline of a structure and drafts of Chapters 1 and 2. Springer were satisfied and, in October, we signed the contract. The book will be published in English and also in Swedish. A very important part of the work is that Olle Qvennerstedt will do the illustrations for it. All the figures and graphs will be drawn by Olle. You who have followed my blog in English during the past two and a half years will have seen his illustrations occasionally. Michael has translated my blog into English during that time and without his help there would be no English version of the book.

We are now installed in “Camp Peak Oil Adelaide”. Bob Couch of Marino Rocks has put his house at our disposal and his lounge room – with a view out over Gulf St. Vincent – has been transformed into a modern writers’ hut where we are progressing with our work. Yesterday the house was transformed into a TV studio. The prestigious scientific program “Catalyst” is produced by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. (See Catalyst’s website) Jonica Newby is a host on the program. Just before I travelled to Australia I was informed that Catalyst was planning to record a program on peak oil and that Jonica wanted to meet me when I arrived in Sydney. We met and she told me that they planned a segment where our research on peak oil – and primarily our analysis of World Energy Outlook 2008 (from the International Energy Agency, IEA) – would be a central part of the program.

Yesterday, Jonica invaded “Camp Peak Oil Adelaide” together with a cameraman and sound technician. During an hour they modified part of the house into a recording studio and the recording could then begin. The entire recording including, among other things, our demonstration of an oilfield, took 6 hours with at least two hours of filming. It was “1, 2, 3, action”, new camera angles, new backgrounds, scenes where we work together as a group, run-throughs of our research results etc..

In addition to our part of the program Jonica will now travel to Paris for a talk with the IEA, to London to discuss the “UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil” with Jeremy Leggett and to New Orleans to look at the Gulf of Mexico oil catastrophe. Production of a program on peak oil by Catalyst is a fantastic idea and it is also wonderful that our research in Uppsala will be a focus of the program. It has not yet been determined when the program will be broadcast but it will be available on the internet and you can be certain that information on it will be published in this blog.

(Swedish)

En mycket viktig del av min resa till Australien är arbetet med en ny bok om Peak Oil och arbetsnamnet är ”Peekning at Peak Oil”. Under en månad skall Olle Qvennerstedt, Michael Lardelli från Adelaide och jag arbeta med boken och målsättningen är att vi skall ha kommit halvvägs då vi lämnar Adelaide.
Det började med att Springer förlag i Holland tog kontakt med mig i maj och ville komma till Uppsala för att diskutera en ny bok om Peak Oil. Under sommaren diskuterade vi vissa upplägg och i september skickade jag in ett förslag till upplägg och ett första utkast till kapitel 1 och 2. Springer var nöjda och i oktober skrev vi på kontraktet. Boken skall ges ut på engelska, men den skall också tryckas på svenska. Avgörande för bokens uppläggning är att Olle Qvennerstedt gör illustrationer till boken och alla figurer och grafer mm kommer att göras av Olle. Ni som har följt min blogg har sett hans illustrationer då och då. Michael har översatt min blogg till engelska under två och ett halvt år och utan hans hjälp skulle det inte bli en bok på engelska.

Vi har nu installerat ”Camp Peak Oil Adelaide”. Bob Couch, som bor i Marino Rocks, Adelaide, har ställt sitt hus till vår disposition och vardagsrummet, med utsikt över Gulf St Vincent, har förvandlats till en modern skrivarstuga och vi arbetar oss nu framåt i boken. I går förvandlades huset till en inspelningsstudio. ABC är Australiens SVT och deras prestigefulla naturvetenskapliga program heter Catalyst (Catalysts hemsida). Jonica Newby är en av programledare för Catalyst. Alldeles innan jag åkte till Australien fick jag veta att Catalyst planerade att göra ett program om Peak Oil och att Jonica ville träffa mig då jag kom till Sydney. Vi träffades och hon berättade att man planerade ett inslag där vår forskning om Peak Oil, och framförallt vår analys av World Energy Outlook 2008 (IEA, International Energy Agency), skulle bli en central del i inslaget.

Igår invaderade Jonica ”Camp Peak Oil Adelaid” tillsammans med kameraman och ljud och ljudtekniker. Under en timma byggde man om en del av huset till inspelningsstudio och inspelningen kunde börja. Hela inspelningen med bland annat vår demonstration av ett oljefält tog 6 timmar med minst 2 timmars inspelningar. Det var tagning 1, 2, 3, nn , nya kameravinklar, nya bakgrunder, inslag där vi som grupp arbetar, genomgång av våra forskningsresultat med mera.

Förutom vårt inslag skall Jonica nu åka till Paris för ett samtal med IEA, till London och diskutera ”UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil” med Jeremy Legget och till New Orleans för att titta på oljekatastrofen. Vilken fantastisk satsning för ett inslag om Peak Oil i Catalyst och så fantastiskt att det är vår forskning i Uppsala som kommer i fokus i programmet. Det är inte bestämt när det skall sändas, men ni kan vara säkra på att det kommer information om programmet på denna blogg.

Scary new best friend for politicians – Peak Oil in Australia

Publiched in Sydney Morning Herald, Weekend Business, page 16

(The same article is also published in Melbourne’s newpaper The Age (same publisher as Sydney Morning Herald), but with a different title –Emissions scenarios are based on flawed assumptions, says energy expert)
PADDY MANNING
November 27, 2010

HERE’S cold comfort. It would be impossible, according to the Swedish energy expert Kjell Aleklett, for us to emit enough greenhouse gas to warm the planet by six degrees: we don’t have enough oil, coal or gas to burn.

”All the emissions scenarios that have been put forward over the last 10 years are wrong,” says Aleklett, professor of physics at the University of Uppsala and the world president of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil.

The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change business as usual forecast to 2100, which would result in six degrees of warming, assumes worldwide production of coal could rise 10 times higher than today.

”That can never happen,” says Aleklett, who is on an Australian speaking tour this month and was recently heard on the ABC’s Science Show.

Aleklett says coal production will peak about 2030, and China is peaking about now.

”Ninety per cent of all coal reserves in the world can be found in six countries: the US, India, China, Russia, South Africa and, of course, Australia.

”The whole carbon dioxide emissions problem is only six countries,” he says. ”Those are the drug dealers when it comes to selling coal. If these six countries would stop selling coal there’d be no problem at all.”
Aleklett has been working with a Newcastle University team studying peak fossil fuel production, led by Geoffrey Evans and culminating in a doctoral thesis by the engineer Steve Mohr, summarised on the Oil Drum website (and previewed here last year). Taking into account supply and demand, Mohr’s ”best guess” puts peak oil production in 2011-12, peak coal production by 2019 and peak gas production between 2028 and 2047.

Aleklett says the Newcastle team is doing ”a great job … we get the same numbers.” In the March issue of Energy Policy , he said oil production peaked in 2008. ”We know that 2009 was lower, and it looks as if 2010 will be lower again,” he says.

The concept of a peak – maximum production – does not mean a date after which the world soon runs out of fossil fuels. It’s about flow rates. ”We are not running out,” Aleklett says. ”But we have a limit to supply. What we’re running out of is the possibility of increased usage.”
Aleklett, a long-time critic of the International Energy Agency’s forecasts, is looking increasingly on-the-money as demand figures have been wound back in the agency’s 2010 World Energy Outlook, released this month.

It stopped short of calling a peak in oil production but did lower its consumption forecasts.

Last year it stressed the importance of oil for economic growth and concluded that 106 million barrels a day would be required by 2030, 20 million higher than today.

In 2010 the IEA predicts only 99 million barrels a day by 2035 and avoids any discussion of economic growth. ”We can interpret this as meaning desired economic growth is not possible,” Aleklett says. He means it.

Aleklett believes high oil prices – they peaked at $US147 in 2008 – helped trigger the global financial crisis, when oil-dependent home owners in the outer suburbs of America’s cities began defaulting on their loans.

Peak oil will limit economic growth: the IEA now sees oil consumption in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries falling by 15 per cent by 2035. OECD nations, including Australia, will have to revise down their future consumption estimates.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics has yet to bring its forecasts into line with those of the IEA. But Australia’s own oil production is declining rapidly; by the end of the decade we could be reliant on imports for 80 per cent of our consumption, says the former Shell Australia and Australian Coal Association executive Ian Dunlop. Where will that oil come from? Can we outbid the likes of China and India?

”The government’s assumption there will always be oil available on the market is complete nonsense,” he says. ”Unless we’re willing to pay a fortune.”

BHP Billiton’s latest quarterly crude oil production figures showed drops across the board, propped up only by the new Pyrenees field in Western Australia.

ABARE’s Energy Resource Assessment last year listed just two other new Australian oil projects, including the Thai operator PTTEP’s Montara/Skua field – the site of last year’s disastrous spill.

The Australian spokesman for the Association for the Study of Peak Oil, Phil Hart, says ABARE is in ”economic fairyland”, believing demand will always lead to supply. The same problem underpins the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios, which are modelled by economists who ”assume business as usual is possible”.
Ultimately it is irrelevant whether we have enough fossil fuels to hit six degrees of warming. Global temperatures are already too high at 0.8 degrees above pre-industrial levels, and climate change is already dangerous.

Recent Potsdam Institute analysis concluded 75 per cent of the world’s fossil fuel reserves must be left in the ground if we are to keep warming to two degrees. ”There’s more than enough coal, oil and gas to get us into trouble,” says Hart. We need to stop burning fossil fuels now (and, the implication is, avoid wasting billions on carbon capture and storage, which uses extra energy and will only accelerate resource depletion).

The ramifications are profound: we need to electrify transport, and shift from private to public transport. Aviation may be a sunset industry. No more toll roads with wildly optimistic demand projections. No more hideously expensive airports.

Does the federal government get it? Aleklett says politicians should welcome the concept of peak oil, which is physical reality: ”Peak oil should be politicians’ best friend. It is something they cannot fix.”

Australia November 2010: Back to Sydney – report 5

It is time for another report from Australia. At 4.30 AM I left Newcastle by car together with Geoff and Steve to travel back to Sydney. ABC-TV has a morning program called “Breakfast” and I was been invited to be a guest on the program at 7.30 AM. They expected me to be in the studio in Sydney by 7.15 AM. During the approximately 140 km long drive I saw a wonderful sunrise. At the start we were quite alone on the highway but when we passed the Harbour Bridge in Sydney the roads were packed with cars and once again one was reminded of the importance of oil. We arrived at the ABC building in Sydney in good time.

It turned out that the TV programme’s host was in Melbourne and my seat was in a studio with a blue background but on TV the background was a fantastic image of Sydney Harbour. During a number of minutes I was allowed to talk about Peak Oil. It is always interesting with live broadcasts since they cannot edit out any statements.

At 11 AM a meeting had been arranged between Michelle Zeibots and Damien Giurco from the Institute of Sustainable Futures at Sydney Technical University, Geoffrey Evans and Steve Mohr from The University of Newcastle and myself from Uppsala University. We were to discuss conditions for future research projects.

Southeast Asia is a very interesting area for research on future energy systems. A large part of the world’s population lives there and according to all the prognoses this area will be the leader in future growth. It would be a perfect topic for collaboration for Global Energy Systems in Uppsala. A few hours later including time for lunch we had an agreement on collaboration and the guidelines for the research we will do were down on paper. Now comes the next step of applying for money for the research.

That evening The University of Sydney had arranged a presentation for the public. The Breakfast programme on ABC TV had concluded with one of the hosts giving the presentation some publicity so I was quite excited as we travelled to the university. I was very pleasantly surprised. There were more people than seats so they sat wherever they could and there was an atmosphere of excitement. Of course, one draws inspiration from this one, my 12th presentations in Australia, really hit the bullseye.

The next stop will be Adelaide where Michael Lardelli lives. Olle Qvennerstedt will also come there. For one month we will concentrate on putting together the book “Peeking at Peak Oil”. Springer is expecting the manuscript to be ready early next year.

(Swedish)
Det är dags för en ny rapport från Australien. Klockan halv fem på morgonen lämnar jag Newcastle i bil tillsammans med Jeoff och Steve för att åka tillbaka till Sydney. ABC-TV (Australiens SVT) har ett morgonprogram som heter ”Breakfast”, och 07:30 är jag inbjuden att vara gäst i programmet. Man förväntar sig att jag skall vara i studion i Sydney kl 07:15. Under den cirka 140 km långa resan fick jag uppleva en fantastiskt fin soluppgång. Från början var vi ganska ensamma på vägen, men då vi passerade Harbour Bridge i Sydney var vägarna fullpackade med bilar och än en gång blev man påmind om oljans betydelse. I god tid var vi framme vid ABC-huset i Sydney.

Det visade sig att programledarna satt i Melbourne och min plats blev en studio med en blå bakgrund, men i TV visade man som bakgrund en fantastisk fin bild över hamnen i Sydney. Under några minuter fick jag berätta om Peak Oil och det är alltid intressant med direktsändningar eftersom man inte kan klippa bort några uttalanden.

Klockan 11 var det inbokat ett möte med Michelle Zeibots och Damien Giurco från Institute of Sustainable Futures, Sydney Technical University, Goeffrey Evans och Steve Mohr från University of Newcastle och undertecknad från Uppsala universitet. Vi skulle diskutera förutsättningar för framtida forskningsprojekt. Sydostasien är ett mycket intressant område för forskning om framtida energisystem. Vi har en stor del av världens befolkning som bor i området och enligt alla prognoser kommer området att vara ledande vad det gäller tillväxt. För Globala energisystem i Uppsala skulle det vara perfekt att etablera ett samarbete. Några timmar senare inklusive en lunch var vi överens om att samarbeta och riktlinjer för den forskning som vi vill göra fanns på pränt. Nu kommer nästa steg och det är att söka pengar för forskningsarbetet.

På kvällen hade University of Sydney arrangerat ett föredrag för allmänheten. Frukostprogrammet i ABC hade avslutats med att programledarna hade gjort reklam för föredraget så det var med spänning som vi åkte till universitet. Det blev en mycket positiv överraskning. Sittplatserna i lokalen räkte inte till utan folk slog sig ner var de kunde och stämningen var hög. Självfallet blir man inspirerad och detta mitt 12 föredrag i Australien blev en fullträff.

Nästa sopp blir Adelaide där Michael Lardelli bor och dit skall också Olle Qvennerstedt komma. Under en månad skall vi koncentrerat jobba med boken ”Peaking at Peak Oil”. Springer förväntar sig ett manuskript i början av nästa år.

Peak Coal in China

Today the Wall Street Journal published an article discussing China and “Peak Coal” (China’s Coal Crisis):

“The idea of peak oil—the point at which global production reaches its maximum—has fixated the energy industry for years. Now, China is grappling with a new worry: peak coal. State-run media reported that Beijing is considering capping domestic coal output in the 2011-2015 period, partly because officials worry miners are running down reserves too quickly to meet the needs of a rapidly expanding economy.”

Yesterday, the TV-program Vetenskapens värld [“The World of Science” – in Swedish] also discussed “Peak Coal” and Richard Heinberg was presented as the guru in that field. Therefore, I would like to discuss Uppsala University’s research on “Peak Coal”.

In the autumn of 2006 I submitted a grant application to Sweden’s National Energy Authority in which I sought partial funding for a project in which we would study future coal production. In his 2003 Master thesis Anders Sivertsson had shown that emissions of carbon dioxide from future oil and natural gas use could not support the emission levels assumed by the IPCC in its emissions scenarios (look at results). The response from the IPCC was that our finding was unimportant since there is so much coal available (read in New Scientist). One motive behind my grant application was to study whether coal really could contribute as much carbon dioxide as assumed by the IPCC in its emissions scenarios. The grant application was approved in December 2006 by Thomas Korsfeldt as one of his last decisions before he resigned as director of the National Energy Authority and, in January 2007, I was able to appoint Mikael Höök as a Ph.D. candidate.

During the autumn we had made contact with our ASPO friends in Germany Werner Zittel and Järg Schindler who had also studied global coal production. We decided to collaborate and, in 2008 we submitted an article to Energy Policy for possible peer-review. At approximately the same time Richard Heinberg asked if he could get a copy of the article and he received it. With this article as an important reference he began to write a book on Peak Coal. The article we submitted to Energy Policy was quite extensive and, in the end, they determined that they were not the correct journal to handle it. When Richard Heinberg heard that the article would not be published as originally intended he was puzzled and wondered whether we could publish it in some other way. To assist him we make it available on ASPO’s website:

A supply-driven forecast for the future global coal production
Mikael Höök(a), Werner Zittel(b), Jörg Schindler(b), Kjell Aleklett(a)
(a) Uppsala University, Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletion Study Group, Department of physics and astronomy, Box 535, SE-751 21, Lägerhyddsvägen 1, Sweden, http://www.fysast.uu.se/ges
(b) 
(b) Ludwig Bölkow Systemtechnik GmbH, Daimlerstrasse 15, 85521 Ottobrunn Germany http://www.lbst.de
(This study was originally submitted to Energy Policy, but now it has been broken up into shorter, more specialized parts and aimed for publication in new forms.)

We have now published the article on global coal production in the journal ”Fuel”:
Global coal production outlooks based on a logistic model

This is the text about China from our 2008 paper:
http://www.tsl.uu.se/uhdsg/publications/Coalarticle.pdf

Conclusions concerning Chinese coal production:

Coal is very vital to China and decreasing exports, together with increasing import clearly show that they have a supply problem. But whether this is due to resource problems, production problems or infrastructure bottlenecks is hard to say yet. A more comprehensive study of the Chinese coal assets needs to be done.

The forecast estimates that Chinese coal production will reach a peak in 2020, perhaps even earlier if the reserves are backdated to 1992, when the last actual update took place, and corrected for cumulative production. So China might be very close to its maximum coal production unless the reserves are larger than reported or a significant amount of resources can be transformed into produced volumes in the near future. Unless something dramatic happens to the Chinese reserves the future production will very soon end up under reserve constraints.

Clearly there are problems with the Chinese coal market and future production but this needs to be investigated more in detail than is done here.

Figure 12: Coal production forecast for China in two cases. The first is based on the reported reserves and the other one backdates the reserves to the last actual update in 1992. In the most optimistic case the production will reach slightly above 3000 Mt in 2020 and continue to increase for a decade before the decline sets in. The other case will result in a maximum production of around 2500 Mt by 2020. Both cases will have rapid decline in the future.

The number one expert on coal is Mikael Höök and he is the one that should have been discussing coal in the TV program.

(Swedish)

Idag har Wall Street Journal en artikel där man diskuterar Kina och ”Peak Coal” (China’s Coal Crisis) och i gårdagens TV-program Vetenskapens värld diskuterades också ”Peak Coal” och Richard Heinberg lyftes fram som den store gurun på området. Det ger mig anledning till att diskutera Uppsala universitets forskning om ”Peak Coal”.

Hösten 2006 lämnade jag in en ansökan till Energimyndigheten där jag sökte medel till en delfinansiering av ett projekt där vi skulle studera den framtida globala kolproduktionen. I en ”Master thesis” hade Anders Sivertsson 2003 visat att utsläpp av koldioxid från olja och naturgas inte kunde nå upp till de nivåer som IPCC hade i sina scenarier. Svaret från IPCC blev att det inte har någon betydelse eftersom det fanns så mycket kol. En motivering till ansökan var att studera om kolet verkligen kunde bidra med så mycket koldioxid som IPCC räknade med i sina scenarier. I december 2006 godkändes ansökan av Thomas Korsfeldt, som ett av hans sista beslut innan han avgick som generaldirektör, och i januari 2007 kunde jag anställa Mikael Höök som doktorand.

Under hösten hade vi kontakt med våra ASPO vänner i Tyskland, Werner Zittel och Järg Schindler, och de studerade också den globala kolproduktionen. Vi beslutade att samarbeta och 2008 skickade vi in en artikel till Energy Policy. Ungefär samtidigt frågade Richard Heinberg om han kunde få en kopia av artikeln och det fick han. Med denna artikel som en viktig referens började han att skriva boken om Peak Coal. Artikeln som vi skickade in var ganska omfattande och i slutändan tyckte Energy Policy att man inte var rätt tidskrift för artikeln. Då Richard Heinberg fick höra att den inte skulle publiceras så som vi tänkt från början blev han förtvivlad och undrade om vi kunde publicera den på något annat sätt och för att hjälpa honom gjorde vi den tillgänglig på ASPO:s hemsida:

A supply-driven forecast for the future global coal production
Mikael Höök(a), Werner Zittel(b), Jörg Schindler(b), Kjell Aleklett(a)

(a) Uppsala University, Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletion Study Group, Department of physics and astronomy, Box 535, SE-751 21, Lägerhyddsvägen 1, Sweden, http://www.fysast.uu.se/ges
(b) Ludwig Bölkow Systemtechnik GmbH, Daimlerstrasse 15, 85521 Ottobrunn Germany http://www.lbst.de

(This study was originally submitted to Energy Policy, but now it has been broken up into shorter, more specialized parts and aimed for publication in new forms.)

Nu har vi publicerat artikeln om den globala kolproduktionen i tidskrifetn ”Fuel”, Global coal production outlooks based on a logistic model
This is the text from our 2008 paper:
http://www.tsl.uu.se/uhdsg/publications/Coalarticle.pdf

Conclusions concerning Chinese coal production:

Coal is very vital to China and decreasing exports, together with increasing import clearly show that they have a supply problem. But whether this is due to resource problems, production problems or infrastructure bottlenecks is hard to say yet. A more comprehensive study of the Chinese coal assets needs to be done.

The forecast estimates that Chinese coal production will reach a peak in 2020, perhaps even earlier if the reserves are backdated to 1992, when the last actual update took place, and corrected for cumulative production. So China might be very close to its maximum coal production unless the reserves are larger than reported or a significant amount of resources can be transformed into produced volumes in the near future. Unless something dramatic happens to the Chinese reserves the future production will very soon end up under reserve constraints.

Clearly there are problems with the Chinese coal market and future production but this needs to be investigated more in detail than is done here.

Figure 12: Coal production forecast for China in two cases. The first is based on the reported reserves and the other one backdates the reserves to the last actual update in 1992. In the most optimistic case the production will reach slightly above 3000 Mt in 2020 and continue to increase for a decade before the decline sets in. The other case will result in a maximum production of around 2500 Mt by 2020. Both cases will have rapid decline in the future.

Australia November 2010: Coal in Hunter Valley and University of Newcastle – report 4

Professor Geoffrey Evan’s group at Newcastle University in Australia is one of the few academic research groups in the world studying global energy resources. We have just begun a collaboration with them and the first project is to study in detail Australia’s coal finds and possible future production. During my visit in Newcastle we discussed future joint projects to formalize our collaboration.

Newcastle is the world’s largest export harbour for coal and high up on my agenda was to examine this industry with my own eyes. On the way from the airport to the centre of town we passed the harbour where they were loading coal for export. I saw a gigantic machine taking bites out of a huge pile of coal with the coal then being transported on a conveyor to the waiting ship. It was difficult to appreciate the number of coal piles and it was only when I visited the coal fields in the upper Hunter Valley that I could comprehend the volumes being shipped out.

It takes weeks to organize a visit to a coal mine but we were able to visit the Coal Industry Centre in the town of Singleton. Our guide was Ross Fleming who, during one hour, gave me more facts and figures than it is possible to relate in one blog but I must mention some of them in any case.

In the valley there are 22 coal mines of which 6 are subterranean. To get to the coal layers one first has to remove the earth above and then break up the overlying layers of rock using explosives. The problem is that these layers contain salt and, when it rains, the salt dissolves out. The resultant salt water needs to be taken care of. When the mining of the coal has ended they rehabilitate the landscape but then the problem is that the rubble they have created is about 40% move voluminous than the original rock so that the fairly flat original landscape is transformed into one with hills. The thickness of the coal layer can vary between 30 centimetres and 3 metres. Many think that coal is just coal. But, in reality, there are about 80 different types that are produced.

We saw the coal train that can be up to 1.5 kilometeres long and I estimated that there are about 5 wagons for every 100 metres of length which means a total of about 75 wagons in every train. It takes one minute to fill each wagon and a little time between each filling so that loading each train must take about one and a half hours. To fill a ship requires 10 coal trains and I believe that it is possible for them to load 5 ships simultaneously. Every day 24 ships leave the harbour and out at sea are around 50 ships waiting their turn to dock. Of the 24 that leave the harbour each day 11 are destined for Japan.

After the run-through on the coal industry at the Centre I had a tour with Ross. He showed us some of the installations and, from this, I would like to mention that they wash all the coal before it is exported. They have tried to conceal the mines themselves and have succeeded quite well in this. This means that a visitor travelling through the Hunter Valley would have difficulty seeing any mines but they will see coal trains and when one sees all the trains one realizes how simple it is in contrast to export oil through a pipeline.

Occupational health and safety is very important for the industry and the number of people killed each year is about two. Compared with China or Russia this is very low. The people working in the coal mining industry are also very well paid. They work 12 hours per day for three days and then are free for four days. Their yearly income is around AUD$110,000 which is twice the average income.

One of my duties in Uppsala is to sit on the board of Uppsala Water that is a communal company. One of the visits to industry that was booked for me was a visit to Hunter Water which has the same responsibilities in Newcastle as Uppsala Water has in Uppsala. I had modified my Powerpoint presentation in accordance with this. They were mainly interested in biogas production and the distribution of heating water and cooling water. Distribution of heating and cooling water in Uppsala is the responsibility of the company Vattenfall.

For me, my public presentation was the highpoint of my visit. The audience was receptive and we discussed Peak Oil from every aspect. The visit was important for Global Energy Systems since we can now include the University of Newcastle as a new collaborative partner. During the weekend we had the chance to go “whale watching” and it was fantastic to see the whales perform their acrobatics.

(Swedish)

Professor Geoffrey Evans och hans grupp vid Newcastle University, Australien, är en av få akademiska forskningsgrupper i världen som studerar globala energiresurser. Vi har just inlett ett samarbeta med dem och ett första projektet är att i detalj studera Australiens kolfyndigheter och möjlig framtida produktion. Under mitt besök i Newcastle diskuterade vi framtida gemensamma projekt som skulle formalisera vårt samarbete.

Newcastle är världens största exporthamn för kol och högt upp på min agenda var att med egna ögon studera kolindustrin. Redan på väg från flygplatsen in till centrum av Newcastle passerar man hamnen där man lastar kolet för export. Jag såg en gigantisk maskin som tuggade i sig en kolhög som sedan transporterades vidare på transportband till det väntande fartyget. Det var svårt att uppskatta antalet kolhöga och det var först då vi besökte kolfälten uppe i Hunter Valley som man förstod vilka volymer som skeppades ut.

Det tar veckor att ordna ett besök i en kolgruva min vi kunde besöka Coal Industry Center i Singleton. Vår guide var Ross Fleming som under en timma levererade fler siffror än vad som är lämpligt att ta med i en blogg, men några måste jag ändå nämna.

I dalen finns det 22 gruvor varav 6 är under jord. För att komma åt kollagren måste man först ta bort jordlagren innan man börjar spränga bort de berglager som inte innehåller kol. Problemet är att dessa lager innehåller salt och då det regnar lakas saltet ut och saltvattnet måste man ta hand om. Då brytningen är avslutad måste man återskapa landskapet men problemet är att den bortsprängda volymen blir cirka 40 procent större så et ganska flackt landskap omvandlas till ett landskap med kullar. Kollagrens tjocklek kan variera mellan 30 centimeter och 3 meter. Många tror att kol bara är kol. Men i verkligheten producerar man 80 olika sorters kol.

Vi såg de långa koltågen som kan vara upp till 1.5 kilometer långa och jag uppskattade att det var ca 5 vagnar var hundrade meter vilket betyder att det finns cirka 750 vagnar i varje tåg. Det tar en minut att fylla en vagn och med lite tid mellan varje tåg betyder att man last ett tåg på en och en halv timma. För att fylla ett fartyg krävs det 10 koltåg och jag tror att det var 5 fartyg som kunde lasta samtidigt. Varje dag är det 24 fartyg som lämnar hamnen och ute till havs är det cirka 50 fartyg som väntar på sin tur att bli lastade. Av de 24 som lämnar hamn är det 11 som har destination Japan.

Efter genomgången i centrat fick vi göra en rundtur med Ross. Han visade oss en del anläggningar och av dessa vill jag nämna att man tvättar allt kol innan man exporterar det. Själva dagbrotten försökte men dölja och man har lyckats ganska väl. Det betyder att en besökare som åker genom Hunter Valley har svårt att se några kolgruvor, men man ser koltåg och då man ser alla tåg inser man hur enkelt det är att frakta olja i en pipeline.

Säkerhet är mycket viktigt för industrin och antalet död per år är omkring två. Jämfört med Kina eller Ryssland ligger man långt framme. De som arbetar med att bryta kol är också välbetalda. Man arbetar 12 timmar om dagen under tre dagar och sedan är man lediga i 4 hagar. Årslönen är omkring AU$ 110.000 vilket är dubbelt så mycket som vanliga arbetarlöner.

Ett av mina uppdrag i Uppsala är att vara styrelseledamot i Uppsala Vatten, som är ett kommunalt bolag. Ett av de industribesök som var inbokade var ett besök hos Hunter Water, som har samma ansvarsområde i Newcastle som Uppsala Vatten har i Uppsala. Min Power Point presentation hade anpassats till detta faktum och framförallt var man intresserade av biogasproduktion och distrubition av fjärrvärme och fjärrkyla. Fjärrvärme och fjärrkyla är numera Vattenfalls ansvar i Uppsala.

Personligen tyckte jag att mitt offentliga föredrag var en höjdpunkt. Stämningen var god och vi diskuterade Peak Oil ur alla aspekter. För framtiden var besöket mycket viktigt och vi kan nu lägga till University of Newcastle som ny samarbetspartner. Under helgen fick vi möjlighet att åka på Whale Watching och det var fantastiskt att se valarnas cirkuskonster.

Spin slips off oil production numbers – World Energy Outlook 2010 is a cry for help

Spin slips off oil production numbers

World Energy Outlook 2010 is a cry for help

Kjell Aleklett, Newcastle Herald, November 11, 2010

Energy is a critical strategic issue for the OECD nations so it is naïve to think that there is no political agenda when its energy watchdog, the IEA, publishes its prognoses. Bad news on the energy front can make life difficult for politicians so the numbers given in the IEA’s World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2010 report are given a positive spin. But a closer look shows a picture that is anything but positive.

In WEO 2010 the IEA continues its tradition of predicting future oil demand without considering if supplying it is possible. Last year the IEA stressed the importance of oil for economic growth and concluded that 106 million barrels per day (mb/d) would be required by 2030, an increase of about 20 mb/d above current production. This year the IEA only predicts 99 mb/d by 2035 and avoids any discussion of economic growth. We can interpret this as meaning that the desired economic growth is not possible.

The IEA now sees OECD oil consumption falling from today’s 41.7 mb/d to
35.3 mb/d by 2035. This means that all OECD nations, including Australia, must revise down their future consumption estimates. Non-OECD nations are now expected to increase their oil consumption by 19 mb/d by 2035. Two thirds of this will come from China and India.

The IEA notes that, since 1980, we have consumed oil faster than we discover it. We now consume 30 billion barrels per year which is more than double what we find. Amazingly, the IEA asserts we will need to find an extra 900 billion barrels of oil over the next 25 years to meet demand. But at the current discovery rate of only 10 billion barrels it would take 90 years! To meet the IEA’s demand prognosis, by 2035 the non-OPEC nations will need to have produced more oil than currently in their reserves. Furthermore, in 2035 they must still be producing oil at 46 mb/d!

Just like previous years the IEA continues to assume that “demand” will determine oil production and so, as previously, their expectations for 2035 are unrealistic. However, despite several unrealistic conclusions, WEO 2010 also contains real numbers worth focussing on. The 68 mb/d of crude oil from fields producing in 2009 is now estimated to drop to only 16 mb/d by 2035. They use a decline rate of 8.3% which is in complete agreement with my team’s research. The IEA says that 60% of oil production in 2035 must come from fields not yet even found(should be the other way around, 40%) . Also, when estimating production from known fields that are not yet producing the IEA fails to heed the criticism of their methods presented in our scientific paper, The Peak of the Oil Age” published last year.

In WEO 2010 the IEA presents facts that mean only one thing – the peak of oil production is imminent. By showing this data without announcing this obvious conclusion the IEA is making a cry for help to do what, for them, is politicly impossible. WEO 2010 is a cry for help to tell the truth about peak oil.

Kjell Aleklett is Professor of Physics and head of the Global Energy Systems Group at Uppsala University, Sweden

Australia November 2010: Queensland’s Government and Brisbane Institute – report 3

The evening before we left Cairns I received a phone call from
Radio Sweden and the program “The Globe”. They wanted me to comment on future extraction of oil from oil shale. Marie-Louise Kristola was a little amazed when I told her that I was in Australia but thought that I should participate in their radio program in any case. A suitable time to record the interview was determined as being Tuesday evening (my time) when I was to be in Brisbane. I sent a message to my contact at the ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) in Sydney to see if they could help me find a studio. When I arrived in Brisbane I opened my email and could read that the interview was booked for 10 PM. You can listen to the result [in Swedish] if you go to the homepage of “The Globe”.

The hosts for my visit to Melbourne were the Queensland Government’s Department of Transport and Main Roads, The Brisbane Institute and Logan City Council but the person who took care of me personally was Wally Wright from ASPO Brisbane. During Wednesday we planned for the intensive program of events with four presentations during Thursday and Friday. According to the plans I will be back in Brisbane on 25 and 26 November to give a public presentation and also to participate in a workshop together with Andrew (Wilf) Wilford. During the afternoon we were at home with Wilf to plan the workshop.

On Thursday I gave two presentations for the Queensland Government. In the morning they organized a symposium for heads of department led by transport minister Rachel Nolan. The title for the symposium was “Oil Vulnerability: Sustainable Transport”. My presentation was focused on transport issues and was followed by interesting discussion. They had also invited Jago Dodson who presented his research on the social consequences of restricted oil supply. It was an interesting presentation that I would gladly hear again e.g. at the next ASPO conference in Brussels. Unsurprisingly, Jago’s research revealed that it is those people with lowest incomes and that live farthest away from the centre of Brisbane that would be affected worst by oil shortage. During the afternoon it was time for the rest of the public servants – about 50 of them – to receive their dose of Peak Oil and this time I was the sole speaker. That presentation was also followed by interesting questions.

On Friday The Brisbane Institute organized a lunchtime symposium. According to their website, The Brisbane Institute is “Queensland’s premier think tank and independent forum for ideas, insight, inspiration and innovation.” The symposium was advertised as follows (see their website)) and was opened by Minister for Transport Rachel Nolan. This was followed by seven other speakers who were each given approximately 10 minutes. I used my 10 minutes to present an updated version of my Champagne presentation from the ASPO conference in Paris. During the lunch, I spoke with the Minister Nolan and she is definitely a “peakist”. Imagine if we had a similar minister for transport in Sweden! For the past four years I have tried to get our Energy Minister Maud Olofsson and those ministers around her to listen to a presentation. Now I have met a minister who chose to listen to me twice in the same day.

Friday continued with a presentation for public servants at Logan City Council and then ended with ASPO friends at “The Gold Coast”, Australia’s Florida.

(Swedish)
Kvällen innan vi lämnade Cairns fick jag ett telefonsamtal från Sveriges Radio och programmet Klotet. Man ville att jag skulle vara med och uttala mig om framtidens utvinning av olja från oljeskiffer. Marie-Louise Kristola blev lite förvånade då jag berättade att jag var i Australien, men tyckte trots det att jag skulle vara med. Lämplig tid för inspelning skulle vara tisdag kväll (min tid) då jag var i Brisbane, Jag förmedlade min kontakt med ABC i Sydney, som förmodligen kunde hjälpa till att skaffa fram en studio. Väl framme i Brisbane då jag öppnade min brevlåda kunde jag läsa att man bokat tid för intervjun klockan 22:00. Resultatet kan ni lyssna till om ni går till hemsidan för Klotet.

Värdar för mitt besök i Brisbane var Queensland Government, Department Transport and Main Roads, The Brisbane Institute och Logan City Council, men den som personligen tog hand om mig var Wally Wight från ASPO Brisbane. Under onsdagen planerade vi för det intensiva programmet med fyra föredrag under torsdag och fredag. Enligt planerna skall jag tillbaka till Brisbane den 25 och 26 november för att hålla ett offentligt föredrag, men också för att vara med på en workshop tillsammans med Andrew (Wilf) Wilford. Under eftermiddagen var vi hemma hos Wilf för att planera workshopen.

Under torsdagen blev det två föredrag för Queensland Government. Under förmiddagen ordnade man ett seminarium för chefstjänstemän med transportminister Rachel Nolan i spetsen och rubriken för seminariet var ”Oil vulnerability: Sustainable transport”. Det blev ett väl anpassat Pek Oil föredrag som följdes av intressanta diskussioner. Man hade också bjudit in Jago Dodson, som presenterade sin forskning om de sociala följderna av brist på olja. Ett intressant föredrag som jag gärna hör en gång till på till exempel nästa ASPO – konferens i Bryssel. Inte oväntat visade han att det var de personer som hade de lägsta inkomsterna och som bodde längst bort från centrum av Brisbane som drabbades värst. Under eftermiddagen var det dags för övriga tjänstemän, cirka 50 stycken, att få sin dos av Peak Oil och nu var jag ensam talare. Det blev också en intressant frågestund efter föredraget.

Under fredagen ordnade The Brisbane Institute ett lunchseminarium. Enligt hemsidan är “The Brisbane Institute, Queensland’s premier think tank and independent forum for ideas, insight, inspiration and innovation.” Så här anonserades seminarit (till hemsidan ) och det inleddes med att transportminister Rachel Nolan höll ett anförande. Sedan var vi sju föredragshållare som fick cirka 10 minuter var. Jag använde mina 10 minuter till att presentera en uppgraderad version av mitt Champagneföredrag från ASPO konferensen i Paris. Under lunchen pratade jag med transportminister Rachel Nolan och hon var verkligen en ”peakist”. Tänk om vi hade haft en liknande transportminister i Sverige. Jag har under fyra år försökt få energiminister Maud Olofsson och ministrarna runt henne att lyssna på ett föredrag. Nu har jag träffat en minister som valt att lyssna till mig två gånger under samma dag.

Fredagen fortsatte med ett föredrag för tjänstemän vid Logan City Council innan dagen till slut avslutades tillsammans med ASPO vänner vid ”The Gold Cost”, Australiens Florida.

Australia November 2010: Days on the Reef and in the Rainforest – report no. 2

In northeastern Australia exists what they call the world’s oldest rainforest. The connection to oil is that over 50 percent of all the oil that has been formed comes from the Jurassic and middle Cretaceous periods of 150 and 100 million years ago respectively. In the rainforest north of Cairns are trees and plants that existed during those times. To be here and see these plants with my own eyes has been high up on my wishlist. During an extended weekend my wish was fulfilled.

Most people associate Cairns with the Great Barrier Reef and, of course, I took a boat tour to the outer parts of the reef. There they had anchored a floating platform that was to be our base for the day’s activities. I spent my time snorkeling in water that was 26 degrees warm. Of course it was fantastic to see all the fishes and corals but it can never look as good as it does in documentary films if one views it from above the water surface. If I had had a scuba diving certificate and had been able dive properly the experience would have been even better. Nevertheless, it was still wonderful.

The high point for me was the visit to the rainforest. First we followed a tourist trail by riding an old railway up to Kuranda that can be called the rainforest’s tourist town. There were many things to do on offer but a visit to the world’s largest butterfly house was quite an experience. Trying to photograph all these fantastic butterflies turned into something like a photographic firestorm and it is fortunate that electronic “film” is free! A suitable rainforest tour begins with viewing koalas, pythons, kangaroos, and more. Then a ride in an old amphibious military vehicle. Of course it was exciting to see the rainforest but the greatest experience was to ride the cable car from the high plateau at 330 metres back down to the base station. It was like flying a helicopter over the rainforest and they had also organized a stop where one could wander around in the rainforest.

Another highpoint was a 4WD trip north out of Cairns and the first stop was for a boat tour on the Daintree River. The river has a long connection to the ocean. The tide forces salt water up the river so there is water with varying salinity over a long stretch. These conditions have led to the evolution of different species of mangrove trees. In total there are 31 different species and that is over half of all the species that exist in the world. On a little island in the river crocodiles are common and we were all happy when we saw a crocodile lying there that had just crawled out of the water.

After lunch we visited the real rainforest. As we travelled the last 100 metres through a little forest I caught sight of a cassowary [the world’s third largest bird]. According to our guide, who visits the place at least five times per week, it is uncommon to see a cassowary and so our cameras did a lot of quick clicking. Afterwards I saw that the clicking was so quick that the autofocus had not been able to cope. They have built a raised footpath on which we could take a half-hour walk through the rainforest. Naturally, they chose a route where one could see all the wonders of the rainforest. It was wonderful to see, hear and smell the rainforest. Of course, the footpath led to a Zamia Palm and this particular tree was estimated to be 500 years old. It is fantastic to think that 260 million years ago I could have seen a palm that looked exactly the same.

(Swedish)
I nordöstra Australien finns det man kallar för världens äldsta regnskog. Kopplingen till olja är att över 50 procent av all olja som bildats kommer från senare Jura och mellersta Krita för 150 respektive 100 miljoner år sedan. I regnskogen norr om Cairns finns det träd och växter som fanns under denna tid och att på plats med egna ögon få se dessa växter har funnits högt upp på önskelistan. Under en förlängd weekend gick min önskan i uppfyllelse.

Det flesta förknippar Cairns med det Stora Barriärrevet och självklart blev det en båttur till de yttre delarna av revet. Där hade man förankrat en flotte som kunde vara bas för dagens aktiviteter. För min del blev det snorkling i 26 grader varmt vatten och visst var det fantastiskt att se alla fiskar och koraller, men så fantastiskt som det ser ut på filmer om revet kan det aldrig bli genom att titta på det från ytan. Om man hade haft dykarcertifikat och gjort en riktig dykning skulle upplevelsen varit mer fantastiskt, men det var ändå en stor upplevelse.

Höjdpunkten blev besöket i regnskogen. Först blev det ett turistiskt steg genom att åka med den gamla järnvägen upp till Kuranda, som kan utnämnas till regnskogens turiststad. Utbudet var stort men ett besök i världens största fjärilshus var en upplevelse. Att fotografera alla dessa fantastiska fjärilar blev ett fotografiskt elddop och det är tur att den elektroniska filmen är kostnadsfri. En anpassad regnskogstur inleddes med att vi fick se Kualas, Pytonormar, Kengurus, mm. Sedan blev det en åktur med ett gammalt millitärt amfibierfordon. Visst var det spännande att se denna anpassade regnskog men den största upplevelsen blev att med linbana åka tillbaka från högplatån på 330 meter ner tillbaka till basstationen. Det var som att flyga helikopter över regnskogen och man hade också ordnat ett stopp där man kunde vandra runt i regnskogen.

Höjdpunkten blev en 4DW norr ut från Cairns och första stoppet blev en båttur på Daintree River. Floden har en lång koppling till havet och tidvattnet gör att saltvatten pressas in i floden så, att det finns vatten med olika salthalter under en lång sträcka. Dessa förhållanden har utvecklat olika arter av Mangroveträd. Totalt fanns det 31 olika arter och det är över hälften av alla arter som det finns i världen. På en liten ö i floden trivs krokodiler och till allas glädje låg där en krokodil som just klivit upp ur vattnet.

Efter lunch blev det besök i den riktiga regnskogen. Då vi åker de sista hundra meterna genom lite skog fick jag syn på en Cassowary. Enligt vår guide, som är där minst fem gånger i veckan, är det ovanligt att man ser en Cassowary och kameran klickade snabbt. Efteråt såg jag att det blev för snabbt då autofokus inte hängde med. Man har byggt en spång som tar oss ut på en halvtimmas promenad genom regnskogen och naturligtvis har man valt en sträckning så att man skulle få se regnskogens alla under. Helt fantastiskt att få se, att få höra och att få känna lukten av regnskogen. Självfallet ledde spången fram till en Zamia Palm och just detta exemplar beräknades vara 500 år gammalt. Fantastiskt att tänka sig att jag för 260 miljoner år sedan hade sett en exakt lika dan Zamia Palm.