The era of cheap oil is over and will never come back

May 25, 2011

This morning on the radio show “Nine to Noon” in New Zealand, Carherine Walbridge interviewed Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency. He said “The era of cheap oil is over and will never come back”. Then he made a very strange statement when he claimed that the IEA was the first to warn of Peak Oil. He gave no credit to ASPO and all the things we have done over the years.

His most remarkable statement was about the future and oil production: “One thing is clear. In the next 20 years about 90% of the crude in the oil production need to come from five or six countries, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and the United Arabs Emirates.”. As regards to oil prices, we should accustom ourselves to 120 dollars a barrel.

Listen and comment.


The Laureate Symposium on Global Sustainability

May 18, 2011

Yesterday Wednesday I was invited to participate in the “Nobel Laureate Choral Concert” in Eric Ericsson hall, Skeppsholmen. The Event was part of the ”Nobel Laureate Symposium on Global Sustainability” that has been held in Stockholm over a period of three days. Today the participating Nobel prizewinners signed a document called ”The Stockholm Memorandum – tipping the Scales towards Sustainability”. I have now downloaded the document, read it and admired all the fine words written therein. (The Stockholm Memorandum)

Let’s begin with the term “Sustainability”. If you search for a definition you may find that given in the Brundtland Commission report of 1987:

”Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.”
Fine words but what do we see in reality?

For me, the central requirement in our lives is energy. From that perspective we can see how certain nations develop in a positive manner because they have the opportunity to use energy while other nations lack development because they do not have access to energy. Provision of energy for a growing world population should be the central issue in every document that attempts to address the future.

In section 2, ”Managing the climate – energy challenge”, one might have expected a discussion of global energy issues but, instead, the document encourages governments to reduce emissions in a just manner while saying, At the same time, the energy needs of the three billion people who lack access to reliable sources of energy need to be fulfilled”. How this is going to happen should be the central issue.

Once again we have a document that does not address the greatest global issue that we face, “that all too many people have all too little energy to share”. Once again it is environmental issues that are prioritised,

”In an interconnected and constrained world, in which we have a symbiotic relationship with the planet, environmental sustainability is a precondition for poverty eradication, economic development, and social justice.”

We will never achieve these goals if we do not discuss our future from an energy perspective. Food is energy and energy is required to produce food. Then we need shelters that have access to energy, an economy that provides us with money to buy food and pay for those shelters and energy to power that economy. Of course, that energy we need should be sourced in a manner compatible with providing a future for our children and grandchildren.

It is said that Santa Claus lives in the Finnish city of Rovaniemi. The Stockholm Memorandum document was presented to Finland’s president but one can ask whether it could just as well have been handed over to Santa Claus because such a document cannot have any significance for our future if it does not discuss that future from an energy perspective.

(Swedish)
I går kväll var jag inbjuden att vara med på “Nobel Laureate Choral Concert” i Eric Ericssonhallen, Skeppsholmen. Eventet var en del av ”Nobel Laureate Symposium on Global Sustainability” som har ägt rum i Stockholm under tre dagar. Idag har de Nobelpristagare som varit med skrivit under ett dokument som kallas för ”The Stockholm Memorandum – tipping the Scales towards Sustainability”. Jag har nu laddat ner dokumentet, läst det och begrundat alla de fina ord som radas upp i dokumentet. (The Stockholm Memorandum)

Låt oss börja med själva begreppet ”Sustainability”. Om man söker efter en definition hamnar man på den definition som fanns i Brundtland Kommissionen rapport från 1987:

”Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.»

Fina ord, men hur ser verkligheten ut.

För mig är det centrala i tillvaron behov av energi och utifrån möjligheten att använda energi kan vi se hur vissa länder utvecklas positivt medan andra saknar utveckling för att man inte har tillgång till energi. Att diskutera energiförsörjningen för en växande världsbefolkning borde vara det centrala i varje dokument som försöker se in i framtiden.

I avsnitt 2 ”Managing the climate – energy challenge” kunde man förväntat sig att man diskuterade de globala energiproblemen, men vad man gör är att uppmana regeringar att reducera utsläpp på ett rättvist sätt samtidigt som man säger ” At the same time, the energy needs of the three billion people who lack access to reliable sources of energy need to be fulfilled”. Hur detta skall ske borde vara centralt.

Än en gång har vi ett dokument som inte tar sig an det största globala problem som vi har, ”att allt för många har allt för lite energi att dela på”, än en gång är det miljöfrågan som prioriteras: ”In an interconnected and constrained world, in which we have a symbiotic relationship with the planet, environmental sustainability is a precondition for poverty eradication, economic development, and social justice.” Vi kommer aldrig att uppnå dessa mål om vi inte diskuterar vår framtid utifrån ett energiperspektiv. Mat är energi och det behövs energi för att producera mat, sedan behöver vi bostäder där det finns tillgång till energi, en ekonomi som ger oss pengar för att köpa mat och betala för vår bostad och idag kräver vårt ekonomiska system energi. Självfallet skall den energi som vi behöver tas fram så att vi går mot en framtid som är bra för våra barn och barnbarn.

Dokumentet lämnades över till Finlands president och i finska Rovaniemi hävdar man ju att Tomten bor. Nu var det inte till Tomten som dokumentet skulle överlämnas, men frågan är om det inte blir ett dokument som lika gärna kunde lämnats över till Tomten, det kommer inte att få någon betydelse för verkligheten då man inte diskuterar framtiden utifrån ett energiperspektiv.


The sun, Rossi’s ”energy catalyzer” and the “neutron barometer”

May 16, 2011

One hundred years ago the sun’s source of energy was a complete mystery. The famous professor Svante Arrhenius is said to have asserted that the sun’s energy output could not be due to combustion and that there was no other explanation. Today our knowledge of physics allows us to explain why the sun can radiate energy for millions of years – hydrogen is transformed to helium. Regarding Rossi’s ”energy catalyzer” there are assertions and facts. If we combine these assertions and facts there is no known physics that can explain the amount of energy released the way the experiment is presented. It is asserted that nickel is transformed into copper and if so the energy can be released, but a transformation requires that the atomic nucleus in nickel is transformed into the atomic nucleus of copper. This transformation can be performed in a physics laboratory and is nothing remarkable. We ourselves have done similar reactions for many years and we know the conditions required. To use a hydrogen nucleus to transform nickel into copper requires a particle accelerator that can give the hydrogen nucleus energy sufficient to approach a nickel nucleus close enough for absorption. Putting nickel and hydrogen in a tube under pressure as described by Rossi does not create the conditions required for this nuclear reaction.

We know from Einstein’s equation that mass can be transformed into energy and if we compare the combined mass of a nickel nucleus and a hydrogen nucleus then we see that it is greater than that of copper. The energy that this difference in mass represents could explain the energy released in Rossi’s catalyzer. The only thing we know with certainty is that there must be a physical explanation for the catalyzer’s energy output. One hundred years ago it was possible to state that the sun is radiating more energy than could, at that time, be explained. Despite their ignorance of nuclear physics the scientists of that time could, nevertheless, make measurements to support that statement. As scientists we are naturally frustrated that we are not allowed to know all the details of Rossi’s experiment. Validation of a scientific discovery requires that an experimental phenomenon be reproducible by others when they are told how to perform the experiment. Verification and explanation are the next two important steps that must now be taken.

The term “cold fusion” spread like wildfire around the world in 1989 when researchers Pond and Fleischmann reported from Utah that an experiment using heavy water (that contains deuterium) and palladium released more energy than had been input. They also reported that they had measured increased neutron activity due to the phenomenon. Researchers around the world attempted to reproduce the experiment without success. At that time I worked in Studsvik outside Nyköping and in my experiments measuring delayed neutrons I used a very sensitive neutron detector. In our attempt to observe cold fusion our group was examining the effect of forcing deuterium into palladium, a metal that has the ability to absorb hydrogen gas. Since Pons and Fleischmann have reported the formation of neutrons we constructed an experimental apparatus in the centre of a very sensitive neutron detector. It took several hectic days of work to construct the apparatus and then, at around 6 PM, we were ready to begin the experiment. At first the neutron detector registered the low level of background neutron flux that always exists. We then gradually increased the amount of hydrogen in our palladium sample and, after about an hour, we noted that the neutron flux was increasing and this continued for about 6 hours. After midnight there was no further increase and by dawn the neutron flux declined. We had apparently seen an increased neutron flux but the question was whether this was from fusion of heavy hydrogen (deuterium) nuclei. The following day we could not reproduce the experiment. What had caused the increased neutron flux of our first experimental attempt?

Neutrons are formed when cosmic rays collide with the Earth’s atmosphere but the atmosphere also absorbs neutrons so the volume of air between us and the stars determines how great is the neutron flux that reaches us. If we are under an atmospheric high pressure system (i.e. there is increased air between us and the stars) then the neutron flux is lower than if we are under a low pressure system. When we reviewed the air pressure during our first experimental attempt we saw that, by coincidence, a deep low pressure system had happened to pass over us so that the increased neutron flux we observed could be explained as increased background radiation. The neutron detector had functioned as a barometer, but I must confess that that those first hours of the experiment were very exciting!

My experience above leads me to point out once again that Rossi’s experiment must be reproduced by other independent researchers and that, ultimately, a physical explanation must exist.


Peak Oil in the European Parliament

May 6, 2011

On Tuesday 3 May The Greens and the European Free Alliancce arranged a Peak Oil seminar in the EU Parliament entitled: Peak oil -weaning Europe off its oil addiction.

Part I: Peak oil and peak oil evidence Activities in Different EU Member States

Summary of the Peak Oil situation
Kjell Aleklett, President of ASPO International

Jeremy Leggett, UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security

Lord Ron Oxburgh, UK All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil and Gas

Part II: The EU and peak oil – Analyses and Policy Measures

Chair: Hughes Belin (energy journalists)

Marjeta Jager, Director for General Policies – DG MOVE – EU transport policy and peak oil

January Panek, Head of Unit Coal and Oil “DG Energy – EU Energy Policy and peak oil

Tassos Haniotis – Director – Economic Analysis, Perspectives and Evaluations at DG AGRI – EU agriculture policy and Peak Oil

Debate and discussion Between MEPs and speakers

Conclusions: Claude Turmes MEP, Vice-President of the Greens / EFA Group in the EP

You can listen to the latter part and questions.

After the seminar were a few interviews and you can see them here:

Kjell Aleklett

Jeremy Leggett

Lord Ron Oxburgh

I hope that other parties will arrange similar seminars.


Three years as a blogger / Tre år som bloggare

May 5, 2011

This May it is three years since I began my blog. It was with considerable doubt that I wrote my first piece, “With some uncertainty I have decided to take the step into the world of blogging. The questions I ask myself are whether anyone cares about my views, whether anyone will read my blog more than once and whether it will influence anyone’s opinions. What finally made me take this step is that I am currently engaged intensively in some very interesting activities (in my opinion) and, of course, I hope that other people will think so too.

At first there were five people that promised to follow my blog and I would like to extend great thanks to them and the others that visit regularly. At the start I said that I would make one or two entries per week and I have done this. 1. Marcus Hjelm says: May 5, 2008 at 11:20 am, Super that you have begun to blog. I can guarantee that I will follow this blog!- Marcus 2. Holger says: May 5, 2008 at 11:46 am, Hello Kjell! I have followed your work for a long time and I want to thank you for taking this good initiative. It will be very interesting to follow your blog. 3. Bengt Eriksson says: May 5, 2008 at 12:16 pm, Hello Kjell. We had some contact previously through ASPO’s name list. I really hope that you have the energy and motivation to continue this extremely important work. I know that peak oil is a very sensitive topic politically – and that means, of course, that the consequences of PO will be difficult to deal with. I hope that this blog can make waves! Regards, Bengt. 4. Niclas Andersson says: May 5, 2008 at 12:28 pm, I can only agree with the comments above. A great initiative! :=) 5. Christer Persson says: May 5, 2008 at 7:00 pm, Super that you have begun writing a blog. I will also follow this blog with great interest. Regards, Chrille.

The English translation would not have been possible without Michael Lardelli in Adelaide, Australia. Often I write something in the morning and Michael translates it in his evening in Australia. I receive the translation in my afternoon and post it so that it is available when morning arrives in the USA. Once again many thanks Michael. Michael is currently translating my book Peeking at Peak Oil into English.

The hit counter began clicking over on 5 May 2008 and it currently shows 286,151 visits. I am very happy that there are many in the media that read my blog and sometimes journalists contact me because they have read something that seems interesting. Every week between 1500 and 3000 people visit and read. The record was on 9 December 2009 when 1765 people read the blog. That was the same day that I published an opinion piece in the Debate section of Dagens Nyheter [Sweden’s largest broadsheet newspaper].

One of the reasons that I had doubts about starting a blog is that I am dyslexic and often do not notice when I spell things incorrectly. Without today’s word processing software I would be lost. Sometimes the software chooses the wrong word with quite comic results but I can live with that.

Thank you for reading my blog!

(PS. I need to find someone to help me record a little video for the book I am writing. If there is anyone who would like to volunteer please write to me.)

(Swedish)
Nu i maj är det tre år sedan som min blogg började och det var med stor tvekan som jag skrev mitt första inlägg:
”Med viss tvekan har jag beslutat att ta steget in i blogg-världen. Frågan man ställer sig är om någon bryr sig om mina åsikter, om någon läser min blogg mer än en gång och om man kan påverka någons åsikter. Vad som till sist fick mig att ta steget till blogg-världen är att min värld just nu är intensiv och ganska intressant (tycker jag) och självklart hoppas jag att någon tycker det samma.”

Det var fem personer som lovade att följa den och ni och andra som tittar in regelbundet skall ha stort tack. Från början sa jag att det skulle bli något inlägg i veckan och jag har nästan skrivit något varje vecka:
1. Marcus Hjelm says: May 5, 2008 at 11:20 am
Kanon att du börjat blogga. Jag kommer garanterat följa denna blogg!
- Marcus
2. Holger says: May 5, 2008 at 11:46 am
Hej Kjell!
Har följt ditt arbete länge nu och vill bara tacka för ett bra initiativ. Kommer med stort intresse följa dina blogg.
3. Bengt Eriksson says: May 5, 2008 at 12:16 pm
Hej Kjell,
Vi hade en del kontakt tidigare i ASPOs namnlista. Jag hoppas verkligen att du har kraft och motivation att fortsätta detta ytterst viktiga arbete. Jag vet att Peak oil är mycket känsligt i den politiska världen – och just det talar ju för att konsekvenserna av PO kommer att bli svårhanterliga. Hoppas att denna blogg kan ge ringar på vattnet!
MVH / Bengt
4. Niclas Andersson says: May 5, 2008 at 12:28 pm
Kan bara stämma in i hyllningskören. Bra initativ !=)
5. Christer Persson says: May 5, 2008 at 7:00 pm
Kanon att du börjat blogga. Jag kommer också att följa denna blogg med stort intresse.
MVH, Chrille

Den engelska översättningen hade inte varit en möjlighet utan Michael Lardelli i Adelaide i Australien. Ofta skriver jag något på morgonen och Michael översätter det på kvällen i Australien. Jag får översättningen på eftermiddagen och lägger ut den så att den finns där på morgonen i USA. Än en gång ett stort tack Michael. Michael översätter nu min bok Peeking at Peak Oil till engelska.

Räkneverket började ticka den 5 maj 2008 och just nu visar det på 286,151 hitts. Till min glädje är det flera i media som läser min blogg och ibland är det journalister som ringer för att man läst något som verkar intressant. Varje vecka är det mellan 1500 och 3000 personer som är inne och läser och rekordet är den 9 december 2009 då 1765npersoner läste bloggen. Det var samma dag som jag hade en debattartikel på DN Debatt.

En anledning till att jag tvekade var att jag är dyslektiker och ser inte då jag stavar fel. Utan dagens ordbehandlingsprogram skulle jag vara såld. Ibland kan programmet välja fel ord och det kan bli ganska komiskt, men jag bjuder på det.

Tack för att ni läser min blogg.

(PS. Jag skulle behöva någon som hjälper mig med att spela in en liten video för min bok. Någon som kan och vill?)


9th Annual ASPO Conference – Presentations

May 4, 2011

Tyvärr räcker inte tiden till för att göra ett utförligt referat från dag 2 och dag 3 på ASPO-9, men det finns nu en möjlighet för er alla att lyssna till alla föreläsningarna på konferensen om ni går till sidan för presentationer (till sidan för presentationer). Eventuellt måste ni installera ett program, men det är ganska enkelt att gör om ni följer instruktionerna.

Om någon skulle vara speciellt intresserad av min presentation så kan ni gå direkt till den här: The ASPO Perspective on Fossil

Om vi går tillbaka till dag 2 och 3 så var det följande rubriker under dessa dagar.
Dag 2:
Long Term Perspectives on Energy & Industrial Civilisation
Short Term Oil Market & Economic Developments
Track A: European Energy Policy
Track A: Energy, Transport, and Materials modeling
Track B: The Relation between Energy and Agriculture
Track B: European Policy on Food Security & Biofuels
Dag 3
Oil Export Changes and Energy Policy
European Energy Policy in an Era of Expensive Oil


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