International evaluation of Peak Oil research at Uppsala University

The research activities at Uppsala University have now been evaluated by an international panel and the research by Global Energy Research Group was ranked as high, to very high. The report can be found on the University homepage (read report) and on page 371 you can read the evaluation of my group. This is a very important statement about Peak Oil; “it is very likely that the GESG point of view is correct”. It is also unbelievable that the evaluation discusses the importance of our work in comparison with the work of Aristotle.

Below you have some of the notes:

Research quality

Using the formal Uppsala rating system, we assess the recent work of the GESG as a mix of top-quality, internationally high quality, and internationally recognized work. This especially reflects the series of 23 papers published in international highly ranked research journals, which are beginning to attract good citation numbers.

• The quality of the work is high, to very high.
• Further, the theme is of immediate societal, political, and economic importance, and well-researched, authoritative evidence from research groups such as the GESG is valued by the world, and will continue to bring great attention to Uppsala University.
• The panel identified the controversial nature of some of the findings of the GESG, but they felt it is very likely that the GESG point of view is correct, and that a distinguished university of long standing is a perfect homefor well-informed, academically sound researchers who occasionally annoy senior politicians and business people. As Lord Luce said in London in May, 2011, ‘ It was the job of an independent university not to be afraid to annoy people’, and similar views have been expressed down the centuries by Aristotle, Bacon, and Newman.

World Energy Outlook 2011 sweeps Peak Oil under the mat / World Energy Outlook 2011 sopar Peak Oil under mattan

It was with great excitement that I opened the file containing the recently released World Energy Outlook 2011. In suspense I looked for the usual chapter on oil but I quickly discovered that it was the same as last year.I went back to the “highlights” on page 13 and it appears that the IEA will not discuss oil in this year’s edition of World Energy Outlook. It concentrates mainly on natural gas:

“The Golden Age of Gas Scenario takes the WEO-2010 New Policies 
Scenario as its starting point, and adopts new Assumptions that have 
the effect of building a more positive future outlook for natural gas 
to 2035.”

The fact that the IEA has chosen to continue with last year’s estimates of oil suits me very well since I do not need to update anything in my recently completed book Peeking at Peak Oil. The next contribution to the international debate on oil will come when that book is released in late February / early March in English and Swedish. We have now begun to discuss a Spanish translation. I will return to WEO-2011 a little later when I have read it.

(In Swedish)

Det var med stor spänning som jag öppnad filen med World Energy Outlook 2011. Med spänning letade jag efter det vanliga kapitlet om olja och mycket snabbt upptäckte jag att man kopierade förra årets version. Jag gick tillbaka till sidan 13 och ”Highlights” och framgår det att man inte tänker diskutera oilja i årets upplaga av World Energy Outlook. Man kommer framförallt att koncentrera sig på naturgas:

The Golden Age of Gas Scenario takes the WEO-2010 New Policies Scenario as its starting point, and adopts new Assumptions that have the effect of building a more positive future outlook for natural gas to 2035.

Det faktum att man väljer att ha kvar förra årets uppskattning om olja passar mig utmärkt för det betyder att jag inte behöver ändra någon till i min bok Peeking at Peak Oil. Nästa inlägg i den internationella oljedebatten blir boken som skall komma ut runt månadsskiftet februari mars då den kommer på engelska och svenska. Vi har nu börjat att diskutera en spansk översättning. Jag skall återkomma till WEO-2011 lite senare då jag har läst den.