The future of oil and its price is being discussed worldwide. This brings other questions about energy into focus as well. On my blog I try to capture what I believe is interesting in my daily surroundings but, of course, there are many other questions and events that are of interest happening in the world. As a trial, I will start a question column where others can pose questions etc.. I will take up the most interesting questions on the main blog, others can get a short answer.
Aleklett’s Energy Mix
Global Energy Systems, peak oil, etc (Globala energisystem, peak oil, mm)
Bloggtoppen
June 23, 2008 at 7:48 pm |
What is your current estimate of peak all-liquids?
November 2, 2008 at 7:19 am |
Is there a way to get contact with a member of the ASPO to agree a conference in Mexico? It’s for a congress made in my university, and I’m asking that becausase that way all the students in my university will start thinking in this matters, and some of them will try to solve them. Thanks for your time, I’ll be waiting a responce. Mario Dominguez, Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico.
November 8, 2008 at 7:06 am |
I read an newspaper article from a University of Hawaii professor about “peak oil” ( located at http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/article/20080928/OPINION03/809280305/-1/BACKISSUES ). Every time that I read something about the subject the basic message is the same: “The world is using far far too much oil and energy. Production is dropping fast. Usage is going through the roof. Very soon we will be facing a day when life as we know it will end. Doomsday Day with a god to help us. However the scientists of the world do not know how much oil is left. And we don’t know how to find out. But trust us, Armageddon is coming.”
Mr. President, instead of using fear tactics to put the cart before the horse, I strongly suggest using the vast scientific expertise to find out more about what you’re talking about. Use sonar technology or whatever is at hand to come up with new theories and hard data. When one has the numbers about *exactly* how much energy the planet has left, perhaps then you can lecture us about what we are doing wrong and how we can change!
Until then (I won’t be holding my breath) I think all options should be considered. Moving renewable energy technology into widespread use, more R&D, finding more efficient ways to extract and use oil such as thermal depolymerization, and drilling in places that were not previously considered.
December 19, 2008 at 6:36 pm |
Finns det någon information om detta ämne på andra språk?
April 20, 2009 at 9:47 pm |
It is always not wise to listen to a young investment banker because we all know what happened to the companies who did listen to them. That is why when I see someone by the name of Ruchir Sharma from Morgan Stanley make a prediction about oil I try not to step on it less I soil my shoes. Having said that one older and considerably wiser gentleman named Henry Groppe has made a prediction not quite as dire as Matt Simmons warnings. Mr. Groppe has been making predictions on the course of oil prices for some 50 plus years and has an uncanny way of being correct. His premise is that many of the high consuming countries for oil such as China are building(at a furious rate) new electrical plants which use coal(cheaper BTU). Currently 15 million barrels a day are used by the world to generate electricity or create heat in factories. If as Mr. Groppe’s premise goes those 15 million barrels a day currently used for electricity, now goes toward transportation we are in store for a more innocuous price of $65 to $95 a barrel(barring any above ground issues)for the next seven years. Yes this does not solve our long term problem concerning oil especially with the growth in population however if Mr. Groppe’s analysis is correct these next 7 years could be the best ever and could make us ASPO people look foolish unless we also highlight Mr. Groppe’s analysis letting the average public know this could likely happen however it won’t last for the long term. Mr. Groppe because he has a long time partner who recently quit his firm and went to work for the Saudis in long term planning is quite confident that the Saudis can maintain production as they said they are able to AND that unlike Matt Simmons says the Saudi’s oil production numbers are pretty good. In fact although Mr. Groppe and Mr. Simmons are friends , Mr. Groppe(in a veiled manner) has taken issue with Mr. Simmons numbers for the Saudis. I really beleive it is all important to resolve these number between Mr. Groppe and Mr. Simmons for the future credibility of ASPO and also for the worlds sake. This is much too important to ignore .
August 25, 2009 at 6:57 am |
In an Op-ed in the New York Times ‘Peak Oil Is a Waste of Energy’ August 24th 2009,http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/25/opinion/25lynch.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1
Michael Lynch, an energy consultant at MIT argues that Peak Oil theory is based on poor analyses of data and misinterpretations of technical material.
What about these arguments?
August 27, 2009 at 8:50 am |
Marc Callen,
The only person that have done poor analysis and misinterpreted technical material is Michael Lynch. We, like most other peak oil analysts, only rely on quantitative and actual data taken from real production cases. The identified trends and behaviours are later generalized, analyzed and interpreted based on natural science.
A splendid example of Lynchs inability to grasp natural science is his statements about easy oil and how persian oil workers didnt produce “easy oil” 100 years ago compared to the present mechanized and computerized rigs. For a physisist and engineer it is very much “easier” to drill a few hundred feets deep and let natural gas drive to the oil recovery for you, compared to drilling through thousands of feets of water, followed by equally much rock before reaching a reservoir that requires fluid injection to yield any reasonable flows. “Easy” is chiefly determined by the physical work that needs to be done to obtain the oil, not by the feeling of the oil workers. Thats an enourmous difference, even though economists such as Lynch doesnt seem to grasp it.
August 27, 2009 at 9:06 am |
Mikael Höök,
Thank you for this clarification. I would like to suggest to reply to the New York Times in a way the general public can understand that the ideas of Michael Luynch are flawed.
October 19, 2009 at 10:53 am |
Kjell, recently you have calculated that 60 mboe/d (oil and gas) are needd to maintain global food production and distribution.
How much is the oil component only?