Energy Policy, the International Journal of the Political, Economic, Planning, Environmental and Social Aspects of Energy, has accepted for publication our study of decline rates of Norwegian Oil Production. Most of the work has been done of my student Mikael Höök. The full article can be read on the homepage for Global Energy Systems, Uppsala University, and the abstract below.
Norway has been a very important oil exporter for the world and an important supplier for Europe. Oil was first discovered in the North Sea in late 1960s and the rapid expansion of Norwegian oil production lead to the low oil prices in the beginning of the 1990s. In 2001 Norway reached its peak production and began to decline.
The Norwegian oil production can be broken up into four subclasses; giant oil fields, smaller oil fields, natural gas liquids and condensate. The production of each subclass was analyzed to find typical behavior and decline rates. The typical decline rates of giant oil fields were found to be -13% annually. The other subclasses decline equally fast or even faster, especially condensate with typical decline rates of -40% annually. The conclusion from the forecast is that Norway will have dramatically reduced export volume of oil by 2030.