Sweden’s representative at the IEA confirms problems with the IEA outlook / Sveriges representant i IEA bekräftar problem med IEA prognoser

Posted on November 14, 2009

1


In today’s Uppsala Nya Tidning [the main newspaper for the area around Uppsala in Sweden, ML] there is an article with the headline “International Support for Aleklett’s Oil Prognoses”. The article refers to the events of recent days and Johan Heimer has also followed up on this by interviewing Urban Bäckström from the Energy Authority. To quote the article,

“Urban Bäckström at the Swedish Energy Authority who is Sweden’s representative at the IEA, says that the IEA’s prognoses for oil resources are probably correct. But it will be difficult to increaese production as much as the IEA forsees.”

By this statement Urban has supported our conclusions. Namely, we have used the reserve figures that the IEA uses. However, the article makes the following comment,

“Even though our projection is much lower than that of the IEA, we must still regard our outlook as optimistic. The yet-to-be-developed reserves of 257 Gb in WEO 2008 are located in 1874 fields that should come into production during the next 20 years. That is something like 8 fields per month coming on stream during that period, with a significant proportion of these fields being developed at a pace equal to that of the North Sea. Even if the oil exists, it is questionable whether the necessary investment needed to produce such a rapid pace of development can be achieved in timely fashion.”

(Swedish)
I dagens Uppsala Nya tidning finns det en artikel med rubriken ”Internationellt stöd för Alekletts oljeprognoser”. Artikeln referera det som hänt de senaste dagarna, men Johan Heimer har också gjort en uppföljning genom att intervjua Urban Bäckström från energimyndighetern:
“Urban Bäckström på den svenska energimyndigheten, som är Sveriges representant i IEA, säger att IEA:s prognoser om oljetillgångarna är förmodligen stämmer. Men att det kommer att vara svårt att öka produktionen så mycket som IEA förutspår.”

Genom sitt uttalande stödjer Urban våra slutsatser. Vi har nämligen använt de reserver som IEA använder. Artikeln gör vi dock följande kommentar:
“Even though our projection is much lower than that of the IEA, we must still regard our outlook as optimistic. The yet-to-be-developed reserves of 257 Gb in WEO 2008 are located in 1874 fields that should come into production during the next 20 years. That is something like 8 fields per month coming on stream during that period, with a significant proportion of these fields being developed at a pace equal to that of the North Sea. Even if the oil exists, it is questionable whether the necessary investment needed to produce such a rapid pace of development can be achieved in timely fashion. “

Posted in: Dagsaktuellt