Global Energy Assessment and Peak Oil

In January 2007 the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) decided that it would initiate “The Global Energy Assessment (GEA)”. All the details on this are available at their home page. On the GEA they write, “This multi-year and multi-stakeholder activity aims to identify integrated solutions for ameliorating existing and emerging threats associated with major global energy challenges, such as providing energy services for poverty alleviation and development, maintaining energy security, and mitigating local, regional and global environmental impacts.”

The idea is that they will publish their report next year and they are now involved in a process where they go out and discuss different sections of the future report with different interested parties in the energy sector. One of the members in the GEA council is Anders Wijkman and he has taken the initiative to hold the meeting that we have just attended in Stockholm. Anders wanted to bring our research into the debate.

The moderator for the meeting in Stockholm together with Anders was Luis Gomez-Echeverri, the Associate Director for Global Energy Assessment. To start, we were introduced to GEA by Thomas B. Johansson who is co-chair of the Executive Committee of Global Energy Assessment.

The theme for the symposium was: Focus on Resources: Physical Limits and Can we Estimate Them.

The first cab off the rank was Dr Hans-Holger Rogner, Convening Lead Analyst of Knowledge Module on Energy Resources, Global Energy Assessment and Section Head, Planning and Economic Studies Section, International Atomic Energy Agency. For us the so-called “Rogner Report”, that provides the resource base for all the IPCC’s emissions scenarios, is a big questions mark. We have criticized the IPCC’s estimates of emissions in a number of articles and I must say that, after Rogner’s presentation, the question mark remains.

Then it was time for Uppsala Global Energy Systems to present its research results. I began by discussing marine-based fossil fuels, i.e. oil and natural gas. Then it was time for Mikael Höök to review his research on future coal production. The greatest discussion occurred when we showed that the IPCC’s large envisioned emissions from coal are not possible.

Our hope is that we have, at last, established Peak Oil as a question of importance for our future.

(Swedish)

I januari 2007 beslutade IIASA, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, att man skulle initiera ”The Global Energy Assessment (GEA)”. Alla detaljer runt detta finns på deras hemsida. Vad det gäller GEA skriver man:
“This multi-year and multi-stakeholder activity aims to identify integrated solutions for ameliorating existing and emerging threats associated with major global energy challenges, such as providing energy services for poverty alleviation and development, maintaining energy security, and mitigating local, regional and global environmental impacts.”

Tanken är att man skall publicera sin rapport nästa år och man är nu inne i en process där man går ut och diskuterar olika avsnitt med olika intressenter inom energisektorn. En av medlemmarna i GEA Council är Anders Wijkman och han har tagit initiativ till ett möte som vi just har haft i Stockholm. Anders ville föra in vår forskning i debatten.

Moderator för mötet i Stockholm var Luis Gomez-Echeverri, Associate Director for Global Energy Assessment, tillsammans med Anders. Inledningsvis presenterades GEA av Thomas B. Johansson som är Co-Chair of the Executive Committee of the Global Energy Assessment.

Temat för seminariet var: Focus on Resources: Physical Limits and Can we Estimate Them.

Först ut på plan var Dr. Hans-Holger Rogner, Convening Lead Analyst of Knowledge Module on Energy Resources, Global Energy Assessment and Section Head, Planning and Economic Studies Section, International Atomic Energy Agency. För oss är den så kallade Rognerrapporten, som är resursbas för alla IPCC:s utsläppsscenarier, ett stort frågetecken och vi har i ett antal artiklar kritiserat de utsläpp som IPCC har kommit fram till och jag måste säga att det frågetecknet kvarstår efter Rogners inlägg.

Sedan var det dags för Uppsala Global Energy Systems att lägga fram våra forskningsresultat. Jag började med att diskutera marinbaserade fossila bränslen, dvs olja och naturgas. Sedan var det dags för Mikael Höök att redovisa sin forskn ing om framtida kolproduktion. Största diskussionen uppstod då vi visade att IPSS:s stora utsläpp från kol inte är möjliga.

Vår förhoppning är vi äntligen planterat Peak Oil som en fråga av betydelse för framtiden.

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