Yesterday there was reason for me to summarise the various prognoses on future oil production that the International Energy Agency (IEA) has made every year in its World Energy Outlook (WEO) reports. IN WEO2000 that was published in November 2000 they estimated that production in 2010 would be 95.8 million barrels per day (Mb/d) and by 2020 it was to have grown to 114.7 Mb/d. There was no estimate for 2030. 2002 was the year that we had our first ASPO conference in Uppsala and was also the first year that the IEA give a prognosis for 2030. It was production at 120.0 Mb/d. Two years later they had increased their production estimate for 2030 to 121.3 Mb/d. It was then that I made my first analysis of the IEA’s prognoses, an analysis that the IEA attempted to convince me to remove from the internet (The Uppsala Code). Then they began to correct their prognosis for 2030. In WEO2006 it was 116.3 Mb/d and in WEO2008 it was 106.4 Mb/d. Their most recent prognosis for 2030 in WEO2010 was 93.6 Mb/d. In that prognosis they gave the volume of natural gas liquids (NGL) in barrels and did not correct for the fact that these liquids have a lower energy content than conventional crude oil. Presumably we will see a similar prognosis when WEO2011 is published but, who knows, by the time WEO2012 comes around maybe peak oil will even be reality for the IEA.
(Swedish)
I går fanns det anledning för mig att göra en sammanställning av de prognoser av framtidens oljeproduktion som International Energy Agency (IEA) gör varje år presenterar i World Energy Outlook (WEO). I WEO 2000, som publicerades i november 2000, beräknar man att produktionen 2010 skall vara 95.8 miljoner fat om dagen (Mb/d) och fram till 2020 skall den öka till 114.7 Mb/d. För 2030 finns det ingen beräkning. År 2002, samma år som vi hade vår första ASPO konferens i Uppsala, var första året som IEA lämnade en prognos för 2030 och det var 120.0 Mb/d. Två år senare hade man uppgraderat prognosen för 2030 till 121.3 Mb/d. Det var då som jag gjorde min första analys av IEA:s prognoser, en analys som IEA försökte övertala mig att ta bort från webben. Sedan börjar man korrigera sina prognoser för 2030, WEO2006 – 116.3 Mb/d, WEO2008 – 106.4 Mb/d och nu senast i WEO2010 – 93.6 Mb/d, alla värden är för år 2030. I sin prognos anger man naturligt flytand gas, NGL, som antalet fat och korrigerar inte för energiinnehållet. Förmodligen kommer vi att se liknande prognoser då WEO2011 kommer, men vem vet, då WEO 2012 kommer kan vi kanske se att Peak Oil blir verklighet även för International Energy Agency.
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Ed Pell
March 10, 2011
Completely enjoyed this post. 🙂
One could try extrapolating these numbers but I keep getting about zero in 2030. 😉
Tommy Walfridson
March 11, 2011
Ed pell, I did the same extrapolation (second degree curve). In 2020 (or so) the IEA would predict zero production for year 2030, hahaha