9th Annual ASPO conference – day 1

Posted on April 28, 2011

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I am now in Brussels and have just completed the first day of this year’s ASPO conference that is the 9th in the series that began in Uppsala in 2002. The fact that we are in Brussels, the centre for political life in the European Union, has motivated us to choose the theme, “European Energy Policy in an era of expensive energy” for the conference. There will also be a symposium held in the European Parliament next week and last Tuesday a symposium was held in the Parliament of the Walloon Region of Belgium. This ASPO conference is one day longer that the original and we now have parallel sessions during the afternoon.

The morning was dedicated to a “Global Overview on Oil, Gas, & Coal Supplies” and I had the opportunity to present some of the research we have done in Uppsala. TOTAL is the oil company whose pronouncements currently are most closely aligned with reality and Pierre Maruiaud, TOTAL’s Exploration Training and Technical Image Manager presented, “TOTAL’s view on Future Oil Production”. The company currently sees a future world production plateau at 96 milion barrels per day until 2030. Unfortunately we did not see any detailed breakdown of the different oil production components to 2030. The third presentation for the morning was by Prof. Dr. Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, Professor at Université catholique de Louvain. He is also the Vice-chair of the IPCC. The presentation was titled, ”Climate Change and Fossil Fuel Depletion”. It was a very strong presentation regarding the current situation but when addressing the future the IPCC’s unrealistic fossil fuel production scenarios were still included. In total the morning included one hour of discussion and I found that part to be very rewarding.

In the afternoon we had two parallel sessions, one for fossil energy and one for renewables. Of course, both were very interesting but my choice was to attend the fossil fuel session. I will watch a recording of the other session later. In the fossil fuel session the first topic was natural gas and Bengt Söderbergh och Kristofer Jakobsson had the opportunity to present their research on the topic. Leena Grandell who is also connected to my group spoke on “Energy return on energy investment” for natural gas and oil production in Norway. Mert Bilgin from Bahcesehir University in Turkey gave an interesting presentation on ”Caspian and Middle East natural gas: Trade, geopolitics and international politics”.

After coffee was a session titled, “Frontier Fossil Fuels” which had three interesting presentations: “Subsalt and Deepwater Oil” by Dr. Ir. Jean-Marie Masset, Former TOTAL Senior VP Geoscience, “The economic prospects for Shale Gas” by Ir. Jean-Marie Bourdaire, advisor of Cheniere Energy, former Director at IEA and former Director at WEC and “The global growth of Underground Coal Gasification – with specific reference to Europe”, by Marc Mostade, Technical Director, Clean Coal Ltd., UCG Association, Advisory Council.

Personally I was very pleased with the first day of the conference and ASPO Holland and ASPO Belgium deserve great thanks for all they have done.

(Swedish)

Nu är jag i Bryssel och vi har just avverkat första dagen av ASPO-konferensen, som är nummer 9 i raden av konferenser som började i Uppsala 2002. Det faktum att vi är i Bryssel, centrum för det politiska livet i Europa, har fått oss att välja som tema “European Energy Policy in an era of expensive energy”. Det kommer också att vara ett seminarium i EU-parlamentet nästa vecka och i tisdags var det ett seminarium i det Vallonska parlamentet. Jämfört med den första konferensen har vi utökat med en dag och vi har också parallella sektioner under eftermiddagen.

Förmiddagen ägnade vi åt “Global Overview on Oil, Gas, & Coal Supplies”, och jag själv fick möjlighet att presentera delar av den forskning som vi gjort I Uppsala. Oljebolaget Total är det bolag som ligger närmast sanningen vad det gäller framtida oljeproduktion och Pierre Mauriaud, TOTAL Exploration Training and Technical Image Manager, presenterade “TOTAL’s view on Future Oil Production. Man ser en platåproduktion på 96 miljoner fat om dagen fram till 2030. Tyvärr fick vi ingen uppdelning detaljerad beskrivning av de olika komponenterna 2030. Det tredje föredraget under förmiddagen behandlade ”Climate Change and Fossil Fuel Depletion” och det presenterades av Prof. Dr. Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, Professor at Université catholique de Louvain, och han är också Vice-chair IPCC. Vad det gäller nuläget var det en mycket stark presentation men då framtiden diskuterades fanns de orealistiska framtida fossila produktionsscenarierna fortfarande med i bilden. Totalt fanns det inlagt en timmas diskussion och det upplevde jag som mycket givande.

Eftermiddagen hade två spår, ett fossilt och ett med förnybar energi. Självfallet var bägge väldigt intressanta, men valet blev det fossila. Jag får titta på det andra senare. Först var det naturgas där Bengt Söderbergh och Kristofer Jakobsson fick möjlighet att presentera den forskning som man gjort. Leena Grandell, som delvis är kopplad till min grupp pratade om ”Energy return on energy investment” för naturgas och oljeutvinning i Norge och Mert Bilgin från Bahcesehir University i Turkiet gjorde en intressant presentation om ”Caspian and Middle East natural gas: Trade, geopolitics and international politics”.

Efter kaffet tog vi oss ann ”Frontier Fossil Fuels” och det var tre mycket intressanta föredrag: “Subsalt and Deepwater Oil”, Dr. Ir. Jean-Marie Masset, Former TOTAL Senior VP Geoscience, “The economic prospects for Shale Gas”, Ir. Jean-Marie Bourdaire, advisor of Cheniere Energy, former Director at IEA, former Director at WEC, “The global growth of Underground Coal Gasification – with specific reference to Europe”, och Marc Mostade, Technical Director, Clean Coal Ltd., UCG Association, Advisory Council.

Personligen var jag mycket nöjd med den första dagen och ASPO Holland och ASPO Belgien skall ha ett stort tack för allt som man gjort.

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