The Finance Ministry itself laid the groundwork for the question that the Green Party’s economic spokesperson Per Bolund has now directed to the Finance Minister Anders Borg. The report that the Expert Group for Environmental Studies commissioned from Øysten Noreng, “Peak Oil – An Economic Analysis” cannot be the basis for Sweden’s future economic and energy policy. Even though it is the Green Party that has now posed the question I consider the issue so important that it can be regarded as a question from the entire parliament. I personally support all parties that seek to raise the Peak Oil debate to the political level.
My name is mentioned in the question to the Finance Minister, but I was not consulted before the question was formulated for, if I had been, I would have objected to this assertion, “To satisfy this growing demand would require nearly six times more oil production than currently occurs in the world’s largest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia.” What the IEA has said is that new resources equivalent to two new Middle Easts are required to compensate for the decline in currently producing fields and that is approximately six times Saudi Arabia’s resources. (Global Energy Systems at Uppsala University has written a research report on this.) That is not the same as “six times more oil production than currently occurs in the world’s largest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia.” If I had been the Finance Minister I would naturally have noted this in my reply. In any case the question itself is well justified although it would have been differently formulated if I had composed it.
At this point I cannot resist citing World Oil’s statement concerning my book “Peeking at Peak Oil” – “Dr. Aleklett, a physicist, is a leading expert, and this book should be required reading for anyone seriously interested in the future world energy market and economy, especially politicians and policymakers.” The Finance Minister Anders Borg is on my list of people who will receive a copy of the book in early June. Perhaps it will be appropriate summer holiday reading?
The question (excluding the long introductory background remarks) was:
“Is the Finance Minister intending to investigate how Sweden’s economy would be affected by a dramatic increase in the oil price or periodically interrupted oil deliveries?
“What measures is the Finance Minister intending to take to reduce the effects on the Swedish economy of Peak Oil?”
(The question in Swedish (use Google translate to translate to English))
(Swedish)
Den interpellation som miljöpartiets ekonomiske talesman Per Bolund nu ställt till finansminister Anders Borg har finansministeriet själva bäddat för. Den utredning som Expertgruppen för miljöstudier under finansdepartementet beställt från Øysten Noreng, Peak Oil – En ekonomisk analys, kan inte få ligga till grund för Sveriges framtida ekonomi- och energipolitik. Även om det nu är miljöpartiet som ställer frågan anser jag att frågan är så viktig att den kan betraktas som en fråga från hela vår riksdag. Personligen biträder jag alla partier som vill ta upp Peak Oil till politis debatt.
Jag har inte konsulterats innan interpellationen för då skulle jag ha reagerat på detta påstående: ”För att tillfredsställa denna ökade efterfrågan skulle det krävas nästan sex gånger mer oljeutvinning än den som sker i dag i världens största oljeexportör, Saudiarabien.” Vad IEA har sagt är att det krävs nya resurser motsvarande 2 nya Mellanöstern och det är ungefär 6 gånger Saudiarabiens resurser, för att kunna kompensera för den nedgång som vi har i de oljefält som producerar den olja som vi idag använder. (Globala Energisystem vid Uppsala universitet har skrivit en forskningsrapport om detta.) Det är inte det samma som ”sex gånger mer oljeutvinning än den som sker i dag i världens största oljeexportör, Saudiarabien”. Hade jag varit finansminister skulle jag naturligtvis anmärkt på detta i mitt svar. Trots detta är frågeställningen mottiverad, men om jag hade hållit i pennan skulle interpellationen sett lite annorlunda ut.
Jag kan inte låta bli att citera World Oils uttalande angående min bok “Peeking at Peak Oil”: “Dr. Aleklett, a physicist, is a leading expert, and this book should be required reading for anyone seriously interested in the future world energy market and economy, especially politicians and policymakers.” Finansminister Anders Borg finns på min lita av personer som kommer att få boken i början av juni. Kanske lämplig semesterläsning.
Aleklett's Energy Mix 
Christoffer
May 8, 2012
It would be interesting to hear/read your perspectives on Jørgen Randers’ predictions for the next 40 years in his book 2052, and your thoughts on his graphs predicting e.g. energy use in the next 40 years. The data in the graphs can be found here: http://2052.info/
aleklett
May 8, 2012
I have made a very quick look and just now I like to say that the fossil graphs are bending in the right direction. The oil graph is higher than I like to have it and the renewable graph is overestimated as hydro today is the dominant fraction and it is not possible to increase hydro so much more.
casdeiro
May 10, 2012
Congrats for this parliamentary question, Mr. Aleklett! Hope you can get an answer sooner than former Spanish government gave us when done a similar question in 2010: http://vesperadenada.org/?s=llamazares
aleklett
May 10, 2012
According to the Swedish rules a minister has to answer a question within four weeks. I plan to visit the parliament when the question is discussed. All members in the parliament can participate in the discussion.