On December 16 US Energy Information Administration has made an early released of the 2014 forecast. About oil they make the following statement:
“With domestic crude oil production rising to 9.5 MMbbl/d in 2016, the import share of U.S. petroleum and other liquids supply falls to about 25%. Domestic production begins to decline after 2019, and the import share of total petroleum and other liquids supply grows to 32% in 2040, still lower than the 2040 level of 37% in the AEO2013 Reference case. The alternative cases in the full AEO2014 will illustrate how different assumptions about resources, markets, and policies can dramatically impact projections of import dependence.”
The decline in the US shale gas, or tight oil, in 2019 looks to be right. The maximum number can be discussed.
No sign of export as Dr Fathi Birol, IEA, is telling us.