A refinery in Three Rivers, a boomtown in central Eagle Ford
We regularly read in the newspapers that the USA will become an oil exporter. But at the same time if one reads what the USA’s energy authority, the EIA, publishes then we can count on the USA importing millions of barrels of oil per day during the next 20 years. It can be difficult to understand that both assertions can be true.
The oil that is produced through fracking is a light oil which also includes natural gas liquids and condensate. Production volumes from fracking are now so great that the US refineries cannot process it all. For a number of years the USA expanded its refineries’ capacity to handle heavy oil imported from Canada’s oil sands. To now exchange the heavy oil for the light oil from fracking means that the refined products gasoline and diesel will become more expensive than if the USA used imported heavy oil to make them. Therefore, the oil industry in the USA wants to export the light oil from fracking that can be used in other parts of the world and, instead, import oil more suitable for its refineries. Today they are not allowed to do that.
Currently, the crude oil that is produced in the USA is cheaper than, for example, that which is produced from the North Sea and it would be easy to find buyers for this oil outside of the USA. The hopes are that exportation of light oil from the USA would put downward pressure on the international oil price so that oil imports would become cheaper. According to US industry, this would reduce the price of gasoline for the US consumer despite the fact that US-produced oil would fetch a higher price on the international market. Today, the USA’s refineries sell some of their products to the rest of the world and they can do this because their production capacity is greater than that required by diminishing US demand. We will see what happens in the future but it is important to understand that the USA is not self-sufficient in oil and that it will not become so in future.
(Swedish)
Med jämna mellanrum läser vi i tidningar att USA skall börja exportera olja, men samtidig om man läser vad USA:s energimyndigheter EIA skriver så räknar man med att USA de närmaste 20 åren skall importera miljontals fat olja om dagen. Det kan vara svårt att förstå att båda påståendena kan vara sanna.
Den olja som utvinns genom fracking är en lätt olja där även naturligt flytande gas och kondensat ingår. Man producerar nu så stora volymer så att de amerikanska raffinaderierna inte kan svälja allt. Under många år har man byggt ut sin produktion för att förberett sig för import av tung olja från Kannadas oljesand. Att byta ut den tunga oljan mot den lätta frackade oljan medför att produkterna bensin och diesel blir dyrare än om man använder importerad tung olja. Det är därför som industrin vill exportera den lätta oljan som kan användas i andra dela av världen och istället importera lämplig olja för sina raffinaderier. Idag får man inte det.
Nu är den olja som produceras i USA billigare än till exempel den som produceras i Nordsjön och det skulle vara lätt att hitta köpare för den utanför USA. Förhoppningen är att den amerikanska oljan kommer att pressa det internationella oljepriset nedåt så att den olja som man importerar blir billigare. Enligt industrin kommer priset på bensin att minska för de amerikanska konsumenterna fastän den amerikanska oljan kan bli dyrare. USA:s raffinaderier kan idag sälja produkter till utlandet och det gör man just nu då deras kapacitet är större än vad den minskande konsumtionen i USA kräver.
Vi får se vad som händer men det är viktigt att förstå att USA inte är självförsörjande på olja och att man inte kommer att bli det i framtiden.
Aleklett's Energy Mix 
Farfar
February 20, 2014
…vilket i sin tur förklarar USA,s stora militära uppladdning i Mellanöstern.
tahoevalleylines
February 22, 2014
One cannot compartmentalize or separate patiently achieved production/consumption forecasts in isolation from the impending storm in the countries of Islam atop the oil patch. It is important to insulate world food production and energy policies from even a very minimum reliance on the vagaries of Middle East geopolitics and feuding.
Oil producers and economists in the west who make a living based on “normal” affairs are whistling past the graveyard. Beyond the norm, we must look to things like food security after a Middle East conflict of great proportions. America in particular must repair food basket aquifers with all due haste, in face of serious drought already taking millions of acres out of production.
This is a World not only a national concern. US pressure on world food supply shall mean millions starve as they are priced out of ability to chase inflating food costs. America must strive to regain position as a food exporter, even if to a lesser degree than decades past. Instead of oil exclusively, Canadian water from MacKenzie and Columbia River outflow should be considered strategic resource in larger context of recharging aquifers.
Called “North American Water And Power Alliance, this is a crucial compendium of engineering features. Here is what is at stake: world food security after Middle East conflict now hurtling toward reality shall depend on more than simply replacing lost Middle East oil flow. Engineering study of electric energy savings including fossil use for generated electricity component should be brought to bear in calculating benefits of raising water tables by robust flow from NAWAPA project delivery.
The oil savants following Dr. Aleklett’s Blog must broaden the scope of inquiry to gain understanding of the overlapping ramifications of energy, water supply, transport methodologies and ability to meet food needs. War shall be with us because there are some inherent inabilities of Mohammedanism to live with Jews on the same planet. Until leadership comes to grips with the original language intent & phraseology in the Qur’an on the subject of Jewish conversion or elimination, Israel is on stage, but this subject of Islamist world hegemony goes far beyond the present arguments of the West Bank & Jerusalem. Strategic think tanks know these things, but it seems we have to labor through many more years of deceptive and futile peacemaking efforts….