My dear friend Art Berman has made an interesting analysis of future oil production in the USA.
This is the beginning of his blog:
U.S. tight oil production may fall 600,000 barrels per day by June 2015 based on reasonable projections of current rig counts.
I compared the decrease in rig counts that began in late 2014 to the rig count decrease in 2008 and 2009 following the Financial Crisis. I projected current total rig counts according to three scenarios out to June 5, 2015 shown in the chart below. I then applied those decline rates to rig counts and production in the 4 major tight oil plays: the Bakken, D-J Niobrara, Eagle Ford and Permian basin.