Last Friday the last load of 349 letters each with a copy of our book, “A World Addicted to Oil” was delivered to the Swedish parliament and our parliamentarians. During the week they should have opened their letters, read my comments on the book and, hopefully, begun to read it. Some lines from the letter:
The books contents are described on the back cover. What it presents is the future of oil production from a scientific perspective. Data is analysed and published in scientific articles that, in their turn, have formed the basis for four Ph.D. theses. The fact that I am a researcher means that I often describe complicated relationships in detail, but in the book I have attempted to describe these relationships in a popular science style with many illustrations. The English version of the book, that will be published this coming spring, will be supplemented with an “Executive Summary”. Below are the contents of the book that I would like to note especially:
*We have analysed future yearly oil production until 2050 using the available statistics for discovered, produced and consumed oil and oil products. Conventional crude oil, the type of oil produced from the Middle East and the North Sea, reached its maximal rate of production of 70 million barrels per day (Mb/d) in around 2007. Since then, production of this oil type has declined. Production of unconventional oil, such as from Canada’s oil sands and the “tight oil” from shale formations in the USA has, up until 2016, compensated for the decline in conventional oil production. However, by 2050 total global oil production will have declined.
*In the fall of 2014, the marked increase in production of tight oil (shale oil) in the USA, Russia’s increased oil production in its Asian regions, and Saudi Arabia’s upgrading of old oil fields caused a surplus of oil production leading to a crash in the price of oil. Now the production of tight oil in the USA is declining. This means that the annual rate of production decline from today’s currently producing conventional old fields becomes decisive in determining overall future production. The fields that today are producing 66 Mb/d will, by 2050, only produce 15 Mb/d.
*Importation of oil is critical to the survival of most nations. The volume of oil available on the world’s export market were greatest in 2005 at 43 Mb/d. Now the available export market volume has contracted to 40 Mb/d. Over the same period, the demand for imports of oil into the Oceania region and those Asian nations outside of the OECD has increased by 5 Mb/d. The opportunities for oil importation available to the world’s remaining nations have declined and will decline further. The world’s oil importing nations including the EU are unaware that they face this problem.
*The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has accepted the four RCP-scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.9 and RCP8.5. The scenarios all show increasing demands for oil to produce future CO2 emissions. The three scenarios with the largest emissions require more oil than can possibly be produced. The oil production/consumption requirements of RCP2.6 are possible but, on the other hand, this scenario requires more coal than can possibility be produced. None of the four accepted climate scenarios describe feasible future emissions of CO2.
(The publishing company AB Exergena has provided the books and there are already people who have supported this initiative by sending 150-250 SEK to the publisher to pay for one of the books, e-mail: exergena(at)gmail.com)