Daniel Yergin, who is regarded as one the world’s great experts on oil, was interviewed yesterday evening on the Australian TV-program Lateline:
(http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2012/s3467044.htm).
First they discussed the current high oil price and the conflict in Iran where the EU will impose an embargo this summer and the USA is imposing sanctions on Iran’s central bank. Yergin, like other oil researchers, believes that the current high oil price is partially due to the Iranian tensions but what will happen to the oil price if tensions worsen is difficult to predict. Regarding the rise in the price of oil in 2008 he says that this was followed by the decline in the economy that had not been predicted. Since then the world economy has been struggling to recover and another rise in oil prices would not help that.
When the question of peak oil arose he said in fact that he respects the concerns for the future that people worried about peak oil hold but he repeated the assertion that CERA does not see a peak in production. I have previously addressed CERA’s future vision in a “debate” in the Oil & Gas Journal. Then Yergin discusses how new technology means that US oil production is currently not in decline but the USA is still importing half of its oil. The new, unconventional US oil production that has recently received so much attention is, in reality, only a few percent of global production but, of course, it is very important for the USA. The USA has a much higher level of energy self-sufficiency than the EU and this is very serious for recovery of the EU economy. The fact that the USA has been using approximately double the energy per capita that the EU uses also means that the USA has a greater potential for energy efficiency gains.
When they discussed renewable energy and Yergin believed that, from a 20-year perspective, the renewable energy sector will grow and that governments will ultimately limit fossil fuel production. The interview concluded with a discussion of climate change and the current concerns regarding this.
I perceived Daniel Yergin’s statements regarding future oil production as showing a degree of humility and it would be interesting to discuss future oil production with him. I hope that my book Peeking at Peak Oil will bring us closer together.
(Swedish)
Daniel Yergin, som anses vara en av världens stora experter vad det gäller olja, intervjuades i går kväll i det Australiska TV-programet Lateline (http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2012/s3467044.htm). Först diskuteras dagens höga oljepris och konflikten med Iran där EU kommer att införa ett embargo till sommaren och där USA låser ekonomiska tillgångar för Iran. Han, liksom vi andra som jobbar med olja, tror att en del av dagens höga pris kan kopplas till konflikten, men var priset landar är mycket svårt att förutsäga. Vad det gäller prisökningen 2008 så säger han faktiskt att den berodde på det faktum att folk inte insåg att det var en minskad produktion jämfört med vad man beräknat, dvs en begränsning i produktionen som ASPO förutspådde redan 2002.
Då frågan om Peak Oil kommer upp så säger han faktiskt att har respekterar vår oro om framtida oljeförsörjning, men repeterar att CERA inte ser en topp i produktionen. Deras framtidstro har jag för något år sedan bemött i Oil & Gas Journal. Sedan diskuterar han hur den nya tekniken har gjort att den amerikanska produktionen inte minskar för tillfället men att man fortfarande importerar hälften av sin olja. Den produktion som fått stor medial uppmärksamhet är i verkligheten några procent av den globala produktionen, men naturligtvis väldigt viktig för USA. USA har en mycket högre självförsörjandegrad än vad EU har och det är väldigt alvarligt för återhämtningen i ekonomin för EU. Det faktum att USA har använt ungefär dubbelt så mycket olja per invånare än EU innebär också att man har en stor potential för effektivisering.
Sedan går man över till att diskutera förnybar energiförsörjning och i ett 20-års perspektiv tror han att denna del kommer att öka och framförallt genom att staten kommer att besluta om begränsningar i den fossila produktionen. Intervjun avslutas med att man diskutera klimatförändringar och den oro som finns om förändringar i klimatet.
Jag uppfattade nog Daniel Yergins uttalande om framtidens oljeproduktion som ganska ödmjukt och det skulle vara intressant att diskutera framtidens oljeproduktion med honom. Hoppas att min bok Peeking at Peak Oil kommer att föra oss samman.
Aleklett's Energy Mix 
tahoevalleylines
March 31, 2012
Mr
Comments from the blessed Yergin notwithstanding, there are several reasons to at least prepare as though Peak Oil is at hand…
CISS analyst Anthony Cordesman has made several rather sobering estimates of probable impacts to world oil flow regarding the Iranian nuclear bomb question. The unwillingness of Cambridge Energy Research Associates to say the words: “Conventional Oil Has Peaked And Is In Irreversible Decline” is simply inexcusable.
Corsdeman’s compendium of Iran’s last acts include casualty numbers seen in World Wars of the last century. Preemption is unthinkable, to be sure. So, ponder the results of waiting for Iran to carry out threats against Israel which most likely would include Egypt and Syria jumping on the bandwagon; CISS sees these nations ceasing to be viable states in a period of some three weeks. Massive damage to oil terminals across the Persian Gulf Region is a given in a regional war. America faces the loss of one or more capital ships in this scenario.
Interested parties can research the reports for themselves; we in this forum consider Peak Oil, and it is obvious to all hands what 6 million Bbl/day removed from markets means. American efforts to put aside 2/3 of the rail mileage since Eisenhower’s Interstate Highway Act of 1956 will have life-threatening consequences as the worldwide motor fuel emergency throws US transport and distribution into disarray. Why is rail component enhancement never more than a footnote of Climate & Energy conferences and treaties??