A Russian newspaper, Kommersant, is published in Russian but also has a daily English version published online. On January 17 it published an interesting article on Norwegian and Russian deliveries of natural gas to the EU, “Norway is squeezing Russia out of European gas market“. The success with shale gas in the USA has meant that gas prices there have decoupled from the price of oil and are much lower than in the EU. One reason for the higher price of gas in the EU is that the Russian delivery contract for gas to the EU is coupled to the oil price. Norway can now offer a lower price and this, together with the economic crisis in the EU has meant that Russian deliveries of gas have decreased. Another factor is that the liquefied natural gas from Snövit, that was originally intended to the shipped to the USA, must now find another buyer and the capacity to receive liquefied natural gas in Europe has increased. An additional factor may be that development of new natural gas fields in Russia is delayed which means that the gas available for export from Russia is declining. Here is the article in Kommersant:
Norway is squeezing Russia out of European gas market
Published: 17 January, 2013, 13:40
Norway, Russia’s closest rival in the European gas market, seems to overtaking Russia’s Gazprom. Norway boasted record high exports in 2012, while Gazprom suffered the worst numbers in 10 years.
Norway increased its exports 16% in 2012 to reach 107.6bn cubic metres, according to Europe’s key statistics office Eurostat. This is “a record level, close to the Russian gas exports to Europe,” Michael Korchyomkin, head of East European Gas Analysis, told Kommersant daily.
During the same period, Russia’s gas giant Gazprom cut sales to Europe and Turkey by 8%, according to the company’s head Aleksey Miller. That’s the lowest export level for the last decade, Korchyomkin said.
At the moment Norway is breathing down Russia’s neck in its key European market – Germany. In 2011 Gazprom supplied 30bln cubic meters out of the total 80bn cubic meters of gas Germany consumes annually. Norway sold just a bit less – 28bn cubic meters. Norway’s Statoil accounts for about 70% of the country’s exports and in 2012 signed a 10 year contract to supply gas to Germany’s Wintershall.
Norway’s lower gas prices are another tool to win customers. The country’s Petroleum Ministry is suggesting charges for gas transportation in new contracts should be significantly cut, according to Reuters citing Norwegian Petroleum Minister Ola Borten Moe.The exact price cut remains unclear, with Kommersant daily assessing it at 7%.
Competitive pricing has become a crucial issue at a time when crisis – stricken Europe can’t afford huge bills.
On Thursday Gazprom 9M 2012 IFRS results showed things are not that rosy for Russia’s’ gas monopoly. The company’s profit for the period was down 12% year on year to $27.1bn, with the net sales of gas decreasing by 8% year on year, to about $61.4bn.
Net sales exclude the amounts paid by the company in form of value added tax and customs duties.
Earlier in the week Fitch rating agency predicted a further fall of sales for Gazprom in 2013, referring to weak economic conditions and slack demand.
(Swedish text)
Den ryska tidningen Kommersant har förutom sin ryska version en daglig engelsk version online. Idag har man en intressant artikel om norsk och rysk gasleverans till EU, “Norway is squeezing Russia out of European gas market“. Framgången med skiffergas i USA har medfört att priset på gas i USA är helt frikopplat från priset på olja och mycket lägre än i EU. En anledning till det höga priset i EU är att de ryska leveransavtalen för gasleveranser till EU är kopplade till oljepriset. Norge kan nu erbjuda ett lägre pris och detta tillsammans med den ekonomiska krisen i EU har medfört att den ryska leveransen minskat. En annan faktor är att den flytande naturgasen från Snövit, som från början var tänkt för USA, måste finna en annan köpare och kapaciteten för att ta emot flytande naturgas i Europa har ökat. Ytterligare en faktor kan vara att utbyggnad av nya naturgasfält i Ryssland är fördröjda vilket medför att tillgänglig gas för export minskar. Här är artikeln i Kommersant:
Aleklett's Energy Mix 
Bengt Eriksson
January 17, 2013
Tar mig friheten att avvika från ämnet gas.
Vore intressant att veta din reaktion på denna artikel.
“Warnings that the world is headed for “peak oil” – when oil supplies decline after reaching the highest rates of extraction – appear “increasingly groundless”, BP’s chief executive said on Wednesday.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/jan/16/peak-oil-theories-groundless-bp
aleklett
January 17, 2013
Det faktum att berörda parter som BP med all kraft försöker visa att Peak Oil inte är verklighet är ett indirekt bevis på att situationen är allvarligare än vad man vill erkänna. Att USA skall bli självförsörjande stämmer inte med var CERA skriver i sin rapport: Although growth in tight oil supply is substantial, the United States will still require oil imports—including imports from Canada and the oil sands. On a net basis, the United States currently imports about 8 mbd of oil and refined products from foreign sources. More than a quarter of this amount comes from Canada. Assuming flat oil demand from now to 2020, US domestic supply would need to grow by 8 mbd to eliminate foreign imports. Meanwhile, tight oil production growth is occurring alongside declining conventional production, meaning that net US hydrocarbon liquids growth (between now and 2020) falls short at about 3 mbd.
Vad det gäller oljeproduktionen i USA och Saudiarabien så har jag diskuterat det I en tidigare blogg. Jag har just skrivit en artikel om Kanadas oljesand och vi får se var den dyker upp, men till slut kommer den även på min blogg. Att skiffergas och oljesand påverkar situationen i USA är helt klart, men faktum är att vi i vår analys har mer oljesandsproduktion än vad som verkar bli verkligheten. För övriga världen så är det som händer i USA och Kanada lokalt och effekten blir att USA i framtiden inte behöver importera så mycket. En annan effekt av skiffergasen i USA kan vara att de internationella bolagen flyttar över investeringar till USA så att utvinningen i övriga världen minskar.