Will Saudi Arabia Become Oil Importer by 2030?

Posted on September 6, 2012

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In recent months many have tried to sweep the Peak Oil issue under the mat. These have mainly been people with strong connections to the oil industry. But two days ago an article was published in Bloomberg Businessweek that refers to a report by Heidy Rehman at Citi group. According to Bloomberg the report contains the following statement: “If Saudi Arabian oil consumption grows in line with peak power demand, the country could be a net oil importer by 2030.”
(http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-04/saudi-arabia-may-become-oil-importer-by-2030-citigroup-says)

News of this has spread around the world like wildfire and it seems that Peak Oil is back on the agenda. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, who is editor for international affairs at The Telegraph, wrote, “A 150-page report by Heidy Rehman on the Saudi petrochemical industry should be sober reading for those who think that shale oil and gas have solved our global energy crunch.”
(http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/author/ambroseevans-pritchard/)

In my book, “Peeking at Peak Oil” I discuss Saudi Arabia in a chapter titled, “Peeking at Saudi Arabia – Twilight in the Desert”. The conclusion of my analysis is that it is possible for Saudi Arabia to produce 12 million barrels per day in 2030. The question is how many of these barrels will be consumed by the Saudi’s themselves. There is no doubt that the volume of oil in the world that is available for importation by those nations that need it in 2030 will be half that which was available in 2005. There is no doubt that, in 2005, we experienced “Peak Oil Imports”. This is also discussed in detail in my book. As an answer to the question “Will Saudi Arabia become an oil importer by 2030?” I would say no. But they will be forced to change their own consumption patterns in order to earn export income from oil. Without this export income Saudi Arabia would collapse.

To study how significant this news is you can do an internet search with the words, “Heidy Rehman Saudi Arabia”. You will find, among others, coverage by Aljazeera:
(http://blogs.aljazeera.com/blog/middle-east/s-arabia-may-not-have-oil-export-2030)

(Swedish)

De senaste månaderna har manga försökt att sopa Peak Oil under mattan och det har framförallt varit personer som har starka band till oljeindustrin. Men för två dagar sedan kom en artikel i Bloomberg Businessweek som refererar till en rapport som Heidy Rehman vid Citi group gjort där han enligt Bloomberg gör följande uttalade: “If Saudi Arabian oil consumption grows in line with peak power demand, the country could be a net oil importer by 2030.” (http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-04/saudi-arabia-may-become-oil-importer-by-2030-citigroup-says)

Nyheten har spridit sig som en löpeld runt välden och det verkar som om Peak Oil är tillbaka up på agendan. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, som är editor för internationella affärer i The Telegraph, skriver: ”A 150-page report by Heidy Rehman on the Saudi petrochemical industry should be sober reading for those who think that shale oil and gas have solved our global energy crunch.” (http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/author/ambroseevans-pritchard/)

I min bok “Peeking at Peak Oil” diskuterar jag Saudiarabien i ett kapitel som heter “Peeking at Saudi Arabia – Twilight in the Desert”. Slutsatsen av analysen är att Saudiarabien kan ha möjligheter att producera 12 miljoner fat om dagen år 2030. Frågan är hur många som man själva kommer att konsumera. Det är ingen tvekan om att den volym olja som är tillgänglig för import för de länder som måste importera olja år 2030 kommer att mer än halveras jämfört med vad som var tillgängligt 2005. Det är ingen tvekan att vi 2005 hade ”Peak Oil Import”. Detta diskuteras också i detalj i min bok. Som svar på frågan ” Will Saudi Arabia Become Oil Importer by 2030?” svarar jag nej. Man kommer att tvingas att ändra sin egen konsumtion så att man får exportinkomster. Utan exportinkomster från oljan havererar Saudiarabien.

För att undersöka hur stor nyheten är kan ni göra en sökning på Google med orden ” Heidy Rehman Saudi Arabia” och som exempel på vad ni hittar vill jag nämna Aljazeera. (http://blogs.aljazeera.com/blog/middle-east/s-arabia-may-not-have-oil-export-2030)

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